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Arc day was a great day of racing, but not so great on the tips. Rogue Millennium was too keen to do herself justice but would've needed to be positioned a lot better if she wasn't keen anyway. Shouldvebeenaring grabbed a place in the Foret and my selection in the Arc, Favourite Moon just wasn't good enough.
Hamilton 4:40 – Dream Final 9/2 (1pt Bet365)
I can see why Mac Ailey is the price he is as he is ahead of the handicapper after not getting a penalty for his win in a Class 6 apprentice race, so is effectively ahead of the handicapper, but he's not a spring chicken and isn't a horse who likes to follow up on his wins, so despite his win looking easy last time out, he's not one to be trusted, especially as it was an apprentice race he won last time out, which doesn't mean much to me.
I'll give a chance to the least exposed horse in the race, Dream Final. It's a total unknown whether he'll like the ground, trip and course, but based on his form before his start last time out, he looks handicapped well enough to win a weak contest like today. He went off as 1/2F last time out and was beaten, but that was his first start in 241 days, so he was entitled to have needed that run. The money coming in for him would suggest connections were confident he would win, and that he was ahead of the handicapper, but I can imagine it's hard to gauge a horse's fitness after such a long time off the track, so I think he'll have come on plenty for that run, and it's not like they've chucked him straight back on the racetrack, they waited a couple of weeks, so I think he'll be spot on for today.
His pedigree would suggest the trip and ground will be fine for him, but until he runs on it, it's a risk. However, at the odds, in a very poor race I think he has to be the play and is somewhat decent value. I really rate Edward Bethell as a trainer and I think he is one of the better northern-based trainers, and one who could definitely compete with the southern lot if given the ammunition, as he is already a Group 1 winning trainer with Regional.
In December 2020 we sadly 
i might get on for newcastle tomorrow but besides that, haven’t looked.
i did see HONOUR YOUR DREAMS 10/1 is out again, a horse i put up in a 20 runner event last time out at Ayr. this horse met so much traffic in running last time i am not leaving him unbacked at 10/1 with 4 places paid. with 3 short priced horses in the market, the card suggests win prospects are bleak, could that mean he is eased down and fades? sure, but that is why we operate with a bank roll, 1pt from 100 will not be missed and will be easily recouped.
HYD is a course and distance winner off 3 lower, in a class 4 even on good to soft, he does not have the strongest of form on the forecasted ground but its good enough, this is also a class 5 and the trainer is has opted for a jockey he uses regularly which is a plus, he has good form over 6, so his stamina may help if the ground isn’t good.
unfortunately i cannot get replays at the moment, but i was on him heavily enough last time to be watching closely and definitely remember being annoyed at how much traffic he ran into. this is directly from the stewards report of the race: ”Jason Hart reported that Honour Your Dreams (FR), unplaced, was denied a clear run continually from 3 furlongs out. An enquiry was held to consider interference in the final furlong, when American Affair (GB), which dead- heated for third place, ridden by Paul Mulrennan, interfered with Honour Your Dreams (FR), unplaced, ridden by Jason Hart.”
two rivals from that 20 runner race are facing off against us again today. wee fat mac, was a neck ahead and is 1lb better off, but i would be absolutely shocked if he won this from respectable connections. a further neck ahead and now 2lbs better off is one last hug, carrying bottom weight. when i saw joe fanning on him, i feared he would try slip the field from the front on tough ground but all of this horses wins state he has been held up, which may make things difficult despite carrying a massive 12lbs less than us, his price has seemingly been slashed but he’s still 4 above his last win which hopefully proves decisive. what i have to mention is the fact we’ve already beaten him twice, but it was marginal off level weights, so on soft, 12lbs could be decisive.
as for the rest, ecclestatial is 2lbs above his win on soft, and paddy stays on board, they also share one in rizzle’s race and could have a decent chance there too, both names i know, but seemingly a new partnership in the making. speedacus is top weight 5 above his best win but will enjoy soft and did win lto with big danny on board – who was probably in paris yday, so may have at least one nice ride here today.. emeralds price is on a hattrick up another 3lbs for good connections but has best form on good/firm and around 11/4 doesnt appeal to me. HIGH OPINION at a big price has an ok look to him on paper, is weighted to win and will like soft, his trainer had a nice spell a couple of weeks ago, this jockey booking is 1-8 for trainer, i know the name, but he only rode 4 winners over the last 12 months from 122 rides… he caught my eye because he bagged a 14/1 winner for richard fahey at the weekend. this horse’s only win came 1 year ago. chookie dunedin is VERY dangerously hcapped, but for good reason, not won since may 2022, this is a 5f race and that win was over 7f so, hopefully the 22/1 price is accurate to his chances. Hardy Angel beat my pick by a neck recently and is only 1lb worse off, from his form, he is not likely to appreciate the soft going but is a big price. paddy mathers is at the track and not on board the mike smith pair in this race, which is a mahoosive red flag for me. as always watch the market and bet late, around 10/1 now, if i wake up to 16s, i’ll know the writing is on the wall – 6 of our trainers last 8 runners have almost all finished last.
uninstant 10.50 France
Lord of war 11-20 Marseille 11-10 bet365.
Great chance if following up on promising debut behind a subsequent group 3 winner
I’m on lovers day just for the sheer hell of it 😂
sabruza 11.20 ew
4:40 Hamilton- arktnstaar 7/2
Never any doubt ! 😂 wish I never put up the 2 boredom bets earlier now and probably put folk off 😂
pretty berry 11.50 .france
Bath
2:32 – daymer bay 6/1
3:02 – racing demon 11/2
Consoling 6-30 Newcastle 🏇
6-4 betting without placeholder at spreadex.
100-30 win at HILLS
80-20 stake.
Chillhi 6-00 Newcastle 🏇
6-4 top 2 finish at SKYBET
9-2 win at paddy power
well done elvis
Chillhi 6-00 Newcastle 🏇
6-4 top 2 finish at SKYBET
9-2 win at paddy power
20-80 stake
80-20 stake FFS
😬🔫
5:45 Hamilton – Ebony maw 10/1 e/w – old pj got be due a win he been letting me down lately . Come on lad 🤞
Second ! No damage done !
vintage 6.30 nb
bayraat 7.30 nap
good morning Alex 7.00 ew
well done all winners today
🇺🇸
Fingers Lakes -R3…Doctor Jerry. 11/2 *** Coral. Ew if you please?
Good effort l lol ast time and plenty room for improvement versus these at least a place I’d say??
Well Doctor Jerry got it done and o was waiting on Godolphin horse im Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 2 for $1400 and change tgat was 11/4 and went off favourite 6/5 and was 2nd last!!?????
Still £398 do me 😉
Anywho apologies for copy n paste (kind of) effort with few main bets and another Canadian but here they are..
20:48
Cant Beat The Katz @ 1/1
Win
20.48 Fort Erie
20.50 Thistledown
Our Last Song
Win
21:53
silks
4 – Caddy Man @ 7/4 ****
Win
21.53 Philadelphia
Trip To Spain @ 9/2
Win
00.05 Golden Gate Fields **** Ew or place for sure but WIN I’ve went
Il Capitano @ 7/4 ****+
Win
00.33 Golden Gate Fields
All Skybet
GL and well done any winners today 👍
watohm 7.15 ew France
The rest of the lucky 15 I’ve done when I collected my winnings I got consoling just need these 3 now what could go wrong 😂
7:30 – sugar baby – 7/1
8:00 – utilis 5/1
8:30 – darker 13/2
typical necked out of the places by the one horse i discount.
i think i cut my talk on weights not mattering as much on sprints, which is classic, mentioned the 22/1 winner beat my pick and was only 1lb off, if it wasn’t such a casual late night selection, might have landed on him, but not to worry.
only just in so, nothing rock solid but having a quick stab.
the tinklers placed for us recently and has 4/1f, im sorry but i do not back favs. that being said, the horse is a multiple CD winner and a head 2nd off 1 higher recently, with the winner going in again, the course form is actually so good im going to back it in the place market, 1st 2nd 2nd 2nd… i know the price is a joke but 11/10 for 3 or 4/6 for four, imagine i never back favs but take a 4/6 price.. well, fook it, im havinggg it with 15m ins till off.
time is running out and i am not having a proper look at the 19:30 so 12/1 JOJO RABBIT is what I chance from long time legends. AD BROWN and rowan scott formed a bit of a partnership recently horse on a 3 timer or smth, probs a decent place bet also, see if the lsat 2 races are woth checking, sorry for HONOUR YOUR DREAMS but least you had all the info
i see DAZZZMAN has put up sugar baby, i was looking at NIVEN the day he had a winner typically, not on of course just had winner same day a year ago, form is often stupid and stable form the way, so had quick glimpse at that and wish he the best of luck, placing behind my one will do us ey
winner was there to be found, but nevermind, rushing for no reason it’s only monday, i will leave it there before the fragile reputation is in shatters – although we did get a rodborough place :D
i will preface this by saying it means ZILCH,
but 8/13 shot hart/varian, NEVER EVER EVER teamed up together. and that is enough for me to take it on, despite them separately being two top names. problem is there is only 1 horse to take him on with and im not fussed about the price there.
cant access 365 for ew extra but surely 3 places on the 50/100 shots is best?? MULRENNAN TREBLE??? adele needs some outfits for ITV, billy on 100/1 shot in goood aw silks, pay attn to them for dunlop this winter. obv not this one but think id rather back the two rank outsiders than the fav – clearly it now wins at 8.13 by 5 lengths,, but only insiders can surely be risking such a horse..
anyway, almost bed time jeez, inabit.
oh yeah 16/1 jojo pick of course 1 outta the places, i challenge anyone to have had 1 land out of the places more than me, need to beg 365 for my account back.
Sound reason 7.30n all in 11-1☘️☘️gl all
karmology 8.00
I think darker is still a good e/w bet at the price now ! Pay no attention to these fake markets 😂
pop favourite 8.30
One for tomorrow
4:32 Ayr – first greyed 11/2 easy money 😂
Sacred falls is in the 5:07 Ayr bet he bloody wins now after putting it up the last twice and losing !!! 😂
Well done azz you beast ! 💰
cheers dazzman 1979