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Arc day was a great day of racing, but not so great on the tips. Rogue Millennium was too keen to do herself justice but would've needed to be positioned a lot better if she wasn't keen anyway. Shouldvebeenaring grabbed a place in the Foret and my selection in the Arc, Favourite Moon just wasn't good enough.
Hamilton 4:40 – Dream Final 9/2 (1pt Bet365)
I can see why Mac Ailey is the price he is as he is ahead of the handicapper after not getting a penalty for his win in a Class 6 apprentice race, so is effectively ahead of the handicapper, but he's not a spring chicken and isn't a horse who likes to follow up on his wins, so despite his win looking easy last time out, he's not one to be trusted, especially as it was an apprentice race he won last time out, which doesn't mean much to me.
I'll give a chance to the least exposed horse in the race, Dream Final. It's a total unknown whether he'll like the ground, trip and course, but based on his form before his start last time out, he looks handicapped well enough to win a weak contest like today. He went off as 1/2F last time out and was beaten, but that was his first start in 241 days, so he was entitled to have needed that run. The money coming in for him would suggest connections were confident he would win, and that he was ahead of the handicapper, but I can imagine it's hard to gauge a horse's fitness after such a long time off the track, so I think he'll have come on plenty for that run, and it's not like they've chucked him straight back on the racetrack, they waited a couple of weeks, so I think he'll be spot on for today.
His pedigree would suggest the trip and ground will be fine for him, but until he runs on it, it's a risk. However, at the odds, in a very poor race I think he has to be the play and is somewhat decent value. I really rate Edward Bethell as a trainer and I think he is one of the better northern-based trainers, and one who could definitely compete with the southern lot if given the ammunition, as he is already a Group 1 winning trainer with Regional.
Hamilton Park - 4:40 pm