Racing tips: Don Herbager can’t be ignored now he gets his optimal conditions

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I thought it was really unfortunate how Bannow Bay Boy didn't win. I thought 2/1 was stealing money from the bookies, and it looked to be that for 99% of the race until the horse/jockey chuckled it in the final half-furlong. 

Arthur's Quay probably ran to form, I needed improvement from him over today's trip to win, but it looks like he's in the grips of the handicapper.

Sedgefield 3:25 – Wake Up Early 9/4 (1pt)

Though this is a four-runner field, it's an interesting one to work out.

Captain Tommy can be ruled out in this. He's swapped to Ian Williams' yard and was pulled up on his sole run for his new stable. He's been out of form for quite a while, which does mean he's on a tempting mark, but you've got to question the jockey booking. Sean Quinlan is a great Northern jockey, but he has never really ridden for Ian, and his usual jockey, Charlie Todd rides down south instead for one ride, so surely he would've gone for the ride with the better chance.

The Questioner is probably the one which most people will latch onto. He's the youngest horse in the race, lightly raced over fences and seems to be on an upward curve for a training team who are in good form this season. But, I have doubts about the ground. He has won on it before, but his best form has come on slightly faster ground, and considering he was withdrawn from Haydock yesterday based on the soft ground, that seems alarming.

Sir Apollo is the dual C&D winner in the lineup but is probably on too steep of a handicap mark to win. He handles soft ground, but I think the handicapper cooked him for the 11lb rise in the weights for a 30L win the time before last, and I think that has caught up to him, with Class 4 races probably being too deep for him. He's light in this race, so can't be fully overlooked but I'd be against.

My dart landed on Wake Up Early who seems to handle this ground, is a real stayer and seems to be in good form. I think you can overlook his run in the Kelso Borders' National back in December as that was over 4m 1f and he didn't quite see out that trip, but before that he was in good form, being placed or winning in his previous five runs. His most recent run at Wincanton was a good effort behind a good horse in Switch Hitter, with Fantastikas back in third by 7.5L. That horse didn't frank the form in the Ultima but was only deemed to be slightly underperforming at Wincanton according to RPRs, so that was a good effort by Wake Up Early, who will find this race easier, despite carrying 12 stone.

Chepstow 3:10 – Don Herbager 4/1 (1pt)

This is another tricky race, with nearly all of the horses arriving in fairly terrible form, but I think Don Herbager deserves a chance now he's back on testing ground.

As 9yo's go, he's lightly raced, with just 20 runs under his belt, 14 of those coming from over fences. He made some nice steps as a chaser last season when winning a couple of races, most noticeably at Bangor when winning by 16L last February. He hasn't been in the same form since, but he's had excuses for nearly enough every race this season.

He probably needed the run on seasonal reappearance, he was too far back at Exeter, over a trip which is on the short side for him these days, he had an irregular heartbeat at Bangor when trying to land the North Welsh National for the second time and last time out he was running on ground far too quick for him. He's dropped down to a mark of 110, which is still 5 lbs higher than when he last won, but considering he won by 16L off 105, I'd like to think he's more than capable of winning off today's mark. He gets a stiff stamina test on soft ground, and I think he could run a big race.

Usual stable jockey Charlie Deutsch has opted for another meeting to ride at, which doesn't sound great, but Harry Bannister takes the ride and has started to become a decent backup jockey for Venetia over the last 12 months or so, winning 5 times from 19 rides, producing a profit of +23.63 to level stakes.

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