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THE Ladies' Derby at Epsom has been won for the past three years by Tapis Libre and the old boy turns out again with a very obvious chance.
BLAZING SADDLES (6.05) could well break that remarkable sequence as Ralph Beckett's gelding has been knocking at the door in slightly better company. Serena Brotherton is a good booking.
FRASER ISLAND (2.00) is trading at attractive odds in the 1m 4f handicap at Haydock. Mark Johnston's gelding was no match for stablemate Sir Ron Priestley and useful Lariat over course and distance in May but this looks a bit easier.
In December 2020 we sadly 
* Posted yesterday *
Haydock 14:00
Fraser island 8/1 1pt win
July -3
Available on skybet bet365 and William hill .
Database to answer the question from yesterday’s post .
I believe all the horses I post have a winning chance doesn’t matter the price.
As you’ve seen in the past I’ve tipped anything from 6/4 to 100/1 as long as I believe it has a chance I select it, nothing to do with % of by balance.
Will be on fraser islanf uncle pom i had your 100 to 1 shot fisher green i think i do your tips whenevr i see them along with others database dc busstop etcn alan of course id just like to say thank you and on another note i hope your daughter is getting better and things get better for your family as a whole cheers mate
Cheers 🍻
You havent really got what I meant..
You play long term, with minimal risk day to day, an advantage of this is, you can chance bigger priced horses, for instance, you may back against an even money shot who you believe has a 35% chance of winning if you feel the 20/1 shot has a 20% chance. This is because you arent desperate to win a single point and can try to win the 20pts knowing if the worst happens your losses for the day arent even noticed.
Assuming you can find a profitable balance – this is a solid plan. Maximising reward whilst minimising risk, which is one of the biggest benefits of a long term strategy so I presume you must do this, just seeking clarification… as it means some days your selections will be more puntier than others.. and joe bloggs has no way of knowing, and if he isnt following a similar staking plan, it may not be as rewarding.
To a point maybe but I think all long term tipsters do this? I hate loosing money but gambling is what it is.
I think if your looking to blow your monthly balance for example over two days < then that only gives you a 7% chance of winning as your missing the rest of the month.
In terms of a percentage , if joe blogs walks into a bookies and puts money on the next fav in what ever race for example @ 6/4 and I have a horse that I’ve studied up on and it’s trading at around 20/1 who has the bigger percentage of winning?
you see yourself as a horse racing “tipster”? :D
i am in agreement with your strategy, and as you say, it is how most successful tipsters likely operate. i raised the point because i don’t think many here will bet with a strategy, they want winners every time with immediate profit. in a sense it is a clash of styles, and shedding a bit of light on what long term strategy entails may help the casual punter save or make more money. BOL today.
Haydock 2.00 Battle of Wills
Haydock 15:30
Liberation day 33/1 0.5 ew
Best of luck all 👍
Quick question. I normally stick to doubles and trebles for the horses but have recently been doing lucky 15s.
Are you better doing your lucky 15 EW or straight??
The drop in returns is massive even if a horse only places never mind losing completely.
Stick to doubles n trebles m8. Lucky 15’s only really profit when the odds for each horse are around 8/1, no point putting bankers in them
i replied on yesterday’s thread as i didn’t want to post another wall of text Cairnzy
Uncle pom you stated yesterday ” you couldnt believe the price for fraser island” I have looked in depth into this race and i will put my neck on the line and say this horse wont win today and to me the horse is priced about right at 8s.
This is obviously just my opinion, there is no right or wrong opinion as we know.
Battle of wills really stood out for me i think at 3s it looks a decent bet and will make it my nap of the day.
Each to their own beat of luck 🍻
Hold on , you don’t think it will win but you’ve backed it anyway , how’s that work then lol .
( below you state you have the option to cash out and that’s probably to a loss )
Unless you can give us some reasoning why it is in your opinion overpriced? I do have the option to cash out on my bet. Thanks.
this is what lead to my question above. it doesnt matter if it wins to pom, he has long term strategy which allows for punts to be taken if he sees value, if you have a bank of £100 and bet £1 a time, you can take more chances – he isn’t always tipping the horse with the best chance of winning, he is calculating risk vs reward and is able to do so because he isonly risking 1%
betfair offer 6/4 for a top 3 finish which sounds quite good considering the top 2 have posted it, an acca builder perhaps rather than a single stake selection.
Not true I think all horses
I tip have a chance of winning otherwise I wouldn’t put my money on.
Simple a 1pt bet because their are other horses with chances in the race and i don’t warent putting more that 1pt of you stake on .
i think that goes without saying. i wasn’t implying you posted anything but horses you thought would win. but you dont need to win daily, so some of your picks will therefore be less likely despite what conclusion you’ve come to.
simply making the point, you bet for long term, and can only lose 2% of your bankroll a day, which allows for horses at a bigger price to be chanced assuming they meet your criteria. whereas the casual reader of this site will want horses that are more likely to win without any consideration of value, they just want to win each and every time, and i dont think that is something you offer.
people should follow you to a level stake, every bet to maximise what you offer, following sporadically once or twice a week randomly is not conducive to profit because of how you operate.. if they want more sure things, they should opt for the likes of postman or elvis.
hopefully this isnt coming across as anything other than a valid discussion :D
I hadn’t considered a top 3 bet, that is probably worth a punt just on the form of Mark Johnston’s yard, about 23% strike rate over last two weeks if my memory serves me right.
Morning all well done winners yesterday
Ramesses 3.30h 9-1
Wot a shot 3.40p 7-1
Agent of fortune 4.20y 20-1
Stop talking 5.10p 7-1
Hatsaway 8.20e 10-1
Balmoral castle 8.30n 20-1
Rosamour 9.00n 10-1
Ew singles & ew super hienz ☘️Gl all
hallalulu 2.00 for jim 2.40 witness in court 3.10 punjab mail.3.30 phase after phase 5.25 well done all winners yesterday
So now all that drivel is out the way can we hear no more about it guys wither the horse wins or loses today 🤷♂️ but hope it wins 😁
Good afternoon all
A couple from me today
2.10 Perth – Put the Law on you EW 20/1 6 places Bet365
6.05 Epsom Be Perfect EW
GL all
Be lucky
Brilliant shout Poppa.
Cheers Had a bit at 33/1 first 3 too so pleased with that
Frightened rabbit 340
Capofaro 900
Always a drama 800
Southern rock 400
Elsie violet 450
Ashazurri 850
Lucky 63 n ew accy
Waiting on The Dapper Man in the 5pm Haydock for £500 current cashout £192.56… surely this horse is as good a banker you can get looking at its form along with the horses it’s up against?
depends on how much you need the money mav if you are happy to risk £307.44 on a 4/5 shot then let it run if not cash out
A won £250 on Tues if didnt win that then wld have snapped the cashout up which is why I’m tempted to let it run as just cant see anything beating it plus a was against it last race as had Spirit of Wezda and Dapper Man spanked it so it owes me 1 lol as that race cost me £180 that day lol
Well done Mav – enjoy
Couldnt back against dapper man.. 7lb claimer who gets winners for the trainer was replacing ben curtis.. never wouldve cahsed out just seen this glad it came ìn
Thanks maverick i followed your 5 fold. I was sweating on the last!
I didn’t post the 5 fold though till it had won @footiemad ?? I never post all my bets on here but good to share a winner
Congratulations!! .. Dapper Won well in the end hope you stuck with it mav
Easy Peazy lovely 5 fold for a Thursday 😁 £10 staked £519.20 returned 👌
If only they were all this easy 🤣
Congrats! You have won £519.75
Accumulator (x1)
W
4th Jul HAYDOCK 15:00 EVENT 0m 7f 37y – Win
4. Path Of Thunder
11/10
5/4
W
4th Jul HAYDOCK 16:00 HANDICAP 1m 2f 100y – Win
1. Dal Horrisgle
6/5
W
4th Jul HAYDOCK 17:00 HANDICAP 0m 5f 0y – Win
1. Dapper Man
4/5
10/11
W
4th Jul YARMOUTH 14:50 EVENT 0m 6f 3y – Win
1. Iffraaz
6/5
7/4
W
4th Jul YARMOUTH 16:20 HANDICAP 0m 7f 3y – Win
1. Magical Ride
1/1
Stake:
£10.00
Returns:
£519.75
Haha
Ooooooooooo :D
He would rather try and bring someone down who just got a really good win than talk about his loser last night Poppa hes just a small minded person not worth lowering ourselves for him
Band Of Outlaws – 19.20 Tipp – 7/4 NAP/NB
Yeah well said Mav
Mr Fix It should sort him out
bring it on poopa :D
Wasnt to be for the NAP it gave it a good go though 🤷♂️