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Keepup Kevin was very disappointing today, he got his preferred ground at Pontefract as the ground got much softer than expected, but he was never travelling so I guess there was something wrong. Today there are some decent priced selections, so hopefully we can land a winner.
David O'Meara has a decent record in this race, winning its 3x in the last 10 years, which gives me the feeling that he thinks PISANELLO has a good chance of landing the spoils on stable debut.
This horse was previously trained by F Chappet in France, and has only recently been transferred to David O'Meara's yard. David generally does well with these kind of horses, especially French imports, so it would't be a surprise to see this horse on his first start for the yard. This horse hasn't been in great form the last two races, hence why he's probably been sold, but if he was to return to his older efforts then he would have a big chance. This horse is only 4yo, so the chances of him being on decline already seems highly unlikely, even though he might not reach the heights of winning a Class 1 race which he did last March, I can't see how he is a 85 or lower rated animal. He is a horse who acts well on soft ground, and there is a chance that he will get a slow surface up at Redcar. He has won a Class 1 Listed race on heavy ground, beating a horse called The Summit, who was a Group 1/2 performer in recent years in France. Although his form hasn't dwindled in the last couple of runs, he still ran a decent race in April where he finished 3rd, and that run recorded an RPR of 95.
He will be carrying top weight in this race, which is 10st. That's not an ideal situation, but he might appreciate a lower level of race than what he has been competing against in France. Also, there is a strong possibility he will be better now being trained over in England. Horses do benefit from a change in scenery, so there is a possibility he might have come back to life at his new trainers yard. David is a cracking trainer, and like I said previously, does very well with foreign imports. Jason Watson has been riding very well recently, and has struck up a good partnership with O'Meara.
There is a strong possibility he'll be overlooked in the market, with punter most likely going to get drawn into the Haggas 3yo or Give It Some Teddy who is a recent winner and always runs well at this track.
There is a very strong chance that the favourite is going to be hard to beat, as he is still lightly raced and could be well treated on his current mark. However, on his third ever attempt at a mile, I think BOY IN THE BAR offers decent value against the favourite, and at the current odds of 11/2 he is definitely worth an EW shot to nothing if he places.
This horse has always been seen to best effect when being a sprinter, or a 7f horse at most, so it is very interesting that Ian Williams has sent him over this trip for the second time in two runs. I think his most recent run was a belter, when you see the ground he made up and the fact that the winner had the jump on the rest of the field, after being prominently positioned. Boy In The Bar was miles back, but cut through the field very well and seemed to stay the mile well enough to suggest he could win over this trip.
Off a mark of 55 he is extremely well treated off old exploits, but he is now 10yo so it's hard to envisage he's going to get much higher than a mark of 65 these days. However, his most recent run was encouraging, and with William Buick booked for the ride, it seems that connections fancy their chances in this race. I think an EW bet is probably the way forward with him, as the favourite is definitely the one they all have to beat, as long as Boy In The Bar price doesn't drop below 4/1.
An amateur's Jockey race isn't my ideal place for a bet but, ANDALEEP must have a very strong chance of winning this contest, as he is a horse who absolutely adores Sandown.
Sandown is a quirky track, and not all horses take to it, so course form is often very advantageous. Andaleep is 3 from 5 at this track, and his most recent win was rather comfortable. Graeme McPherson is more known as a jumps trainer, so the fact that he is 4/7 at this track and has a +25.50 profit to £1 level stakes is rather impressive. He has decided to book Mr Bradley Roberts for the ride, and he is 5/20 on the flat and has four 2nds.
The form of his most recent win has been boosted with the runner-up winner over hurdles next time out, and Sweet Reward (5th) ran a belter to finish 2nd in the final race at the Goodwood Festival behind Rebel Territory who was clearly well handicapped.
18:00 Kempton - Race: 4
18:30 Kempton - Race: 5