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Yesterday saw Donkey Years run a good race, but was given a little too much to do by Mark Walsh. We got a small bit of profit return with him placing, and I think he is worth following in his next races, as he is clearly well handicapped and is going to be winning soon.
Wetherby 4:05
I tipped up FRIMEUR DE LANCRAY last time he ran, which was a fortnight ago, and didn't run very well. When that happens, I'm not one to back them again, without them having an excuse, but this time I am, as I think that was simply not a true running and he deserves another chance.
Like I mentioned when I tipped him up last time out, he might appear to be better over further, but when there's testing conditions on a galloping track like Wetherby, I think a shorter trip is also fine for him. There could be a decent amount of pace in this race as well, which will also suit him, as he does have stamina for further.
When you consider his rating over hurdles, being as high as 132, his current mark of 114 over fences makes him well treated and not one to underestimate. The weight he carries in this race is a benefit, as on testing conditions you don't really want to be carrying a big weight, like he did last time. Today he gets in off bottom weight, which is 10st 9lbs when you take the rider's claim into consideration, which is 11lbs lighter to his closest rival.
Sue Smith's had a pretty quiet season so far, so the fact she's had a couple of wins in recent weeks, as well as multiple places and runner-ups, it looks like her horses are returning to form.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Bit of a mad one. Getaway charlie 5.20 Leopardstown. 85/1 for a top 5 finish ew extra. Worth a couple of Bob ew
GL
And shout out for ill take a punt thanks
Should say,,, thanks for the shout out ill have a punt at it,,, hate typing on phone GL Today
Brilliant
Finished 5th but they haven’t paid me out for some reason
Ecossais,,,,,bebraveforglory,,,,,,salvatore,,,,,sonnemoser,,,,,,kitaway,,,,,,hazard collonaes,,,,,all southwell,,and EW shout for miss west 4 30
Onenightintown,,,,,cartonne,,,,,Alberts back,,,,,seven no trump,,,,motown lake,,,,,,,grey dawning,,,,all wetherby,,,
Pats choices,,,,prevaricate,,,,sams choices,,,,,,siberian star,,,,,,,,rath gaul boy,,,,,,all lepersay
🇺🇸🐎 Yankee downed but couple of decent singles put up in USA won.
Backing the last in my Yankee at Santa Anita in Grade 3 race.
A tough one to call but go with my notes,very impressed last run!
Be sleeping by time it goes off tomorrow around 12.30am but catch replay of
Santa Anita -R8…Under The Stars 7/4
Also an early one from tracker for tomorrow as I can’t see price lasting.
Turf Parades-R8…I Will Yeah. 9/4.
2nd run for new trainer now and drops in class a touch after an unlucky 3rd last run
GL and well done the winners yesterday again. Was a good day 😁
Should of done the R/fc with Under The Stars and his stablemate!?
Posted yesterday
==========================
Geometrical 2-45 southwell 100-30.
Looks a match between this and odds on favourite Washington.
I’ve always had a theory that horses that run well at Doncaster also run well at southwell and vica versa.
Geometrical was a decent sort for jim bolger in Ireland and won on hurdles debut over here for new connections beating icon d’aubrelle 2 lengths at Doncaster and gave that one 5 pounds.
Today both geometrical and Washington carry a penalty but geometrical has 3 pound less with the claimer on board.
I’ve seen a write up saying Washington is impossible to oppose so with that in mind I’ve done geometrical without Washington at 10-11 also.
Herouville 4-37 toulouse.
12-1 ew extra 5 places 1/4 odds 🇫🇷.
6 places not 5 🇫🇷
We 1530 Chti Balko 9/2 Wo 1730 Water Of Leith 13/2 Wo 2000 Protected Guest 11/1 E/W
All three are drifting and might be backable E/W Might also do Playfull Saint in the 1530
Free bets day so going 2x singles with them and a double
Lab Brenann…1.00. 6/5 Paddy Power boost
Seven No Trumps…4.05 5/2. Bet365.
GL all
Tried unsuccessfully to post some pointers on the Cheltenham handicaps last week, maybe it was too long, so I will post up each race separately instead so it has a better chance of showing up.
Firstly though, I have backed Gordon Elliott to win the trainers title at 3/1.
He looks to have his camp in great shape and has pretty much made his mind up on most of their targets already. He also seems to be a man on a mission after what happened last year.
When it comes to the handicaps, you won’t go far wrong by backing Elliott’s yard. Over the past 10yrs his rate is +80 to a £1 stake and has a 38% place strike rate.
He also has the services of apprentice jockey Rob James who is well worth his 7lbs and is basically this years Jordan Gainford, so probably worth having a pop on his mounts. He is confirmed to run,
RWF (NH Chase)
Frontal Assault (not confirmed where he runs yet)
SDB (Pertemps).
I will post up my thoughts on each of the handicap races throughout the day.
GL
Nice wright ups dc,,Gordon has a horse called smoking gun,, it was crazy odds its down to 16s now , i backed it last 2 times,,and the last time it run ,Gordon made it not run well,,i never new that till after the race , and he put it away for Cheltenham, i got it at 25s ,,,and another one is barensdstown lad has speed and stays well and Should be there abouts dude ,, but as you no yourself anything can happen,,,as for Gordon he cant be that bad , or is he as bad as Robbie power bullying women and showing his nuts,, and calling her names ,,not sure about that,,
Just remember willy schooled him twice in a week a few weeks back,, Saturday and the Tuesday
ULTIMA
The Irish haven’t won this race since 2006 but in fairness they haven’t tended to target the race with just a handful of runners contesting the race in the past few years.
However, of the 82 still entered this year, 20 are Irish and Elliott has 8, so it appears that they have decided to take it more seriously this year.
Because of that it kinda makes it fairly pointless to take most of the trends into consideration as a lot are based on English form.
But there are some that worth siding with
Wore some sort of headgear 9-10
Rated 142+ 7-8
Novice or 2nd season chasers 10-13
Only 2 winning favs since 1994
Avoid chestnut horses
One career fall 18-20.
Sires never to have won
Flemensfirth (0 Wins from 13 )
Milan (0 Wins from 11 )
Presenting (0 Wins from 10
Old Vic (0 Wins from 9
Dom Alco (0 Wins from 8
Oscar (0 Wins from 8
Currently there are still too many entered so I will wait until final Dec’s on this race to make a decision, but at least we have something to go on.
If he does win the trainer title it will leave a very sour taste for me.
After what he did I truly hope Elliott has a nightmare Cheltenham and hope the public boo him in the winners enclosure. What he did seems to have been too easily forgotten by many pundits.
I will back his horses next Tuesday if I think they will win me money but no way will I ever cheer him ever again, the jockey and his staff yes but him, no way
the punishment he got was a joke and has lead for punters to maintain their own disgust – 12 months with 6 months suspended and a 15k fine??? ffs. as you say, give him 1-2 years even and we could forgive, the fine/ban wouldn’t have changed a damn thing. as for the BHA acting independently, assuming he could enter UK races, it makes sense no?
to do what he did, whilst the horse was still warm, and actually pose for a picture means he can never be respected again. it was only probably a small glimpse into his world, he has 100s of horses come through his yard and they seem to be nothing but meat, he is nothing but a butcher. i’m not a horse lover or snow flake by any means, but as you say, the man is now nothing, regardless of what he achieves.
Elvis
What he did was wrong, can’t disagree with that, but how would you compare what Elliott did to what Charles Byrnes did or what Sheikh Mohammad continues to do ?
Byrnes should have been banned for life but got the same 6 month ban as Elliott for drugging a horse to the extent that it put not only the horses life at risk but the jockey that rode him. And SM continues to have his own daughter kidnapped and locked up in her own home, but because he pumps so much money into British racing the Red carpet is rolled out for him every time he visits.
And don’t get me started on the BHA, they come out with a statement banning Elliott from all UK racecourses even before the IHRA had made their decision, on a matter that had absolutely nothing to do with them.
As I said earlier, didn’t like what I seen from Elliott but he’s done his sentence, served his ban and I hope has learnt his lesson. Everyone deserves a 2nd chance.
Yes a second chance in life for ones who have done wrong and have changed is correct.
And of course there seems to be an undercurrent of horse doping which seems to be brushed under the carpet like you say.
And I agree there were inconsistencies in the processes by the bha, they and their handicap system need a major overhaul don’t they
But personally a 3-5 year ban would have been a sufficient amount of time to change elliotts for me.
Sitting on the sidelines for a year was a pathetic response from the racing authorities, it’s like a football manager sent to the stands and still communicating his orders to the bench via his phone.
Anyway it is what it is and life goes on but i will always see that image when I see his smiling face celebrating a festival winner.
completely agree with everything you said DC
Wolves 6.30 High Velocity
Looks nap material
James Doyle’s only ride
11/10 Bet 365
Evens Sky Bet
Good luck
Don’t shoot the messenger
doyle 0-11 for trainer over the last year. PJ MACDONALD is almost the only jockey you want to be seeing in these silks, callum shephard probably next best. have no opinion on the chances saying that, but with so much racing, never need to look at 11/10 shot let alone bet on it.
Never in doubt
Go collect
😂
Boodles h’cap hurdle
This race is all about how good is Gaelic Warrior.
Nobody seems to know too much about him but from what I’ve heard he’s chucked in off 129 and actually should be running off 139 but the handicapper made a mistake !!!
He’s run 3 times in France including graded races and could still be value at his current 5/2 come the off especially if Mullins has a good day.
But, he’s too short for me in a 24 runner h’cap having never run over uk hurdles and at 12/1 I’ve backed HMS Seahorse who meets The Tide Turns (current 2nd fav) on 8lbs better terms for a 1 1/2L beating.
I also have Ben Siegal backed from earlier but I’m not holding out much hope from a mark of 131.
DC
From what i hear Gaelic Warrior is bringing the house down ,what that means in horse racing terms i don’t know. But the boodles is not a great race for the Irish and if I’m not mistaken i don’t W Mullins have ever won this race . . The English have a good record in this one .
Plug
He hasn’t run in Ireland yet purely to protect his mark. If he is what reports suggest then he’ll win easy and wouldn’t put anyone off him in their doubles accums etc. He’s been schooling with Vauban and been keeping up with him which would suggest he’s well in.
The Irish have won the last 4 running and I’d be confident they will win it again this year
With plenty of short favs, the EW value seems plentiful. I haven’t been looking recently, I haven’t studied today either, it’s Monday, Cheltenham is coming, so keeping that in mind… for interest.
Dan Skelton has 6 runners today. On this card last year at Southwell he had 4 winners and as such all 6 of his should be mulled over, Harry is on the 3 at Wetherby.
The maths would probably say I’m wrong but I love a bit of Drinkwater/Danny Burton. I was pished not to share a big winner of theres recently, a combo I’ve known pop up with nice winners now and then. Anyway, with nothing to go on, I will be on 145w JEN’S GEORGIE 10/1 EW.
1730w WATER OF LEITH 7/1 is an attractive price with 4 places paid. Yes it failed from 1lb lower in January with a winner rider for the trainer, but today’s jock is actually the regular & Menzies has popped up plenty this season on the AW. The horse hasn’t won since Dec 2020, but it was over C&D off 13 higher.
J Forster had a winner recently, 440w SIGURD 6/1 won on this card last year, he carried more weight that day and is now rated lower. Hughes is on again, the price has gone but is still an EW shot to nothing with 4 places paid.
There’s no denying David Probert is one of the best. He won recently on a 8/15 for this trainer but ALICE HAYNES has had a massive breakout year, I’ve been lucky enough to be on a couple of her big winners so after seeing her use Hollie for a winner this week, I am risking a modest stake on 1800w OBTAIN 5/1.
BOL
10/1 shot caught on the line, easy game :D <3
CORAL
2 I like in the race are
Drop the Anchor who was an unlucky 5th in the county Hurdle last year. He was staying on strongly then so this step up in trip should be far more suitable. He’s also Only received a 2lb tax from the UK handicapper which seems more than fair some have got far more.
The other is The Shunter who is 2-2 at Cheltenham and won the plate at the festival last year. Considering if he was to go over fences he’d be running off 155, I’d be surprised if they didn’t go the Hurdle route from 148. I would also expect a claimer to be onboard to ease the burden further. Currently 20/1 NRNB with b365 I’m sure he’ll be much shorter on the day should they decide to go this route.
GRAND ANNUAL
11-12 aged 6 to 9
Rated 138-152 last 11
No more than 4 runs this season 8-9
6-7 not raced for 50+ days
14-17 had run at a previous festival
This has been the target for Buddy Rich for a long time. He’s been kept at home since his last run in Nov and it’s Elliott’s only entry in the race. I think that’s the definition of a Plot Job and I’m all over him for this race.
I have also had a saver on Dancing On My Own who beat BR and is 1lb better off with him. That day DOMO was well backed while BR was easy to back, so you just don’t know if that was the plan from Elliott. There is some 25s about for DOMO but mainly 20s available.
Great shout with buddy rich ,,
Great write ups DC 🇮🇪.
Saving these to a text file for future reference.
This handicap system does my head, it’s so hard from this side of the pond to know which Irish horses are well in, in regards to their English mark.
Cheers elvis
That’s a good idea, and when Cheltenham is over we can all have a good laugh as to how badly wrong I got it 🤣🤣
Quick southwell 2 singles and double
2-10 Salvatore win 11-10
3-20 benign dictator top 3 finish 5-4
Double pays 3.72-1
Quickfire loss ☠️😂🙃
PERTEMPS FINAL
I’ve backed 2 in this race,
Sire Du Berlais has won the race twice before and was runner up in the stayers last year. He’s running off 156 and even though that’s top weight, it’s actually 2lbs lower than when qualifying at Warwick in jan. He will also have the 7lbs from Rob James and is very well handicapped based on that.
However, Tullybeg would be my main Fancy in this race. He’s been progressive this season winning twice before just doing enough to qualify in 5th. In his last win he beat Hewick giving him 3lbs. The latter was sent to Sedgefield and won a class 2 by 6 1/2L off 142. Tullybeg is actually running off 140 for this and should be well within his capabilities. Quite a bit of 14s about for him. Pp down to 8s.
DC
While you are here, SIR GERHARD.
where is this running ?
Only 2 bets I’ve done so far are sir Gerhard supreme novice and pied Piper triumph both about 9-4 – 2 singles and double.
It’s 2-1 supreme and 11-8 ballymore so bookies seem to have no idea so what chance us mere mortals 😂
Elvis
It’s unfortunately still in the balance.
If you were to put a gun to my head I’d say Ballymore.
Someone from Cheveley Park did say that they would announce it by weds but I’ll believe that when I see it.
PLATE
Irish won 4 of last 6
Novice or 2nd season chasers 6-6
Last 4 SP 5/1 or shorter
Aged 6-9 last 10
Only 1 winner since 2003 Wore headgear.
I’ve yet to really digest this race, but one I have my eye on is actually English in the shape of Fusil Raffles who will be running off his lowest ever mark of 149.
His 4 best RPR’s have all been at this track. He was 2nd in the Turners last year and the horses either side of him are rated 164 and 160. He was 2nd to BMG but gave him 12lbs and he beat Kitty’s Light at Wetherby who came out and boosted the form last time out.
I don’t like anything at the head of the market.
The fav is 10 and no value
Birchdale gone too high in the weights having won at the DRF.
Bursledon given 8lb rise by UK H’capper.
The Shunter probably go hurdling route
Grand Paradis can’t jump.
If the shunter runs thats a good shout aswell,, i was watching a 2 and a half hour documentry with danny mullins he gives shunter a shout out, and was watching a interview with barry gerraty, he was asked if he had to ride one of Gordons who would it be ? He says mighty potter,,i was a bit took back at that comment,,,as there line up is fantastic and to pick that from all them , was a bit mad,,,also shishkin got cut so make of that what you will
KIM MUIR
Ireland 9 of last 18 favs, all were beaten except Mount Ida
Irish won 5 of last 8
Only 2 of 19 won lto
8 of last 11 Wore some headgear
16 – 17 aged 7-9
6-7 went off single figure price
This will probably be the race Frontal Assault lines up in (I hope I’m wrong)
He’s in off top weight but will have James’s 7lbs to help.
I’m with The Big Flu in this with Smoking Gun who will have The Coddfather onboard for this. Jockey bookings are vital in this race. The top jockeys usually win and there’s no better amateur than Jamie Codd. He’s also Only been given a 2lb tax by the UK handicapper which is very fair imo.
DC
Again all jockeys at the preview night except J Codd all gave Frontal Assault with young rob James on board .they actually gave this one as the banker bet of the festival 4/1
Forgot to say j Codd gave Smoking Gun as a good ew bet was 12/1 now only 6/1 i think
Plug
I’m on SG at big odds and happy to see how he goes. I don’t really take too much notice of preview nights unless Tony Mullins is on it. He’s about the only honest one of the lot and once he gets a few whiskeys into him he’s full of info !!
Not sure plug but been looking and S.Gun for a bit now, but noing my luck it will be wining at the end and get hit by a Russian bomb and get smoked
COUNTY
11-12 won by either Irish trained or Dan Skelton (3-6)
Willie Mullins has won it 5 times in those 12yrs
17-19 Novices or 2nd season hurdlers
132-139 (12-15)
5 of last 6 were ex flat horses
1-12 Wore headgear
State Man is entered in both this race and the MP. Which ever race he goes I will be on him. He’s running off 141 which is very lenient as he’s basically a grade 1 horse running in a h’cap.
I will wait and see where he ends up before digesting this one further.
Elvis
I was at a Cheltenham preview night Friday and the jockeys that were there said Sir Gerhard will be running in the supreme and not the Ballymore .only saying what they said hope this helps.
Yeah sir gerhard wins i think
Sorry SG stands for Smoking Gun
Am taking two in each race dc maybe 3 as am doing bets now as you get money back NR, and some wont run bud so may aswell go for a big bet now,,, i no you might even get big odds on the day but i cant see these beening anywere near these prices
Cheers, hope he does 👍
MARTIN PIPE
Giggenstown have had 12 runners in this race. 4 won and 5 were placed.
Willie Mullins has won it 4 times all with Novices.
6-7 were h’cap debutants
1-12 ran within last 52 days.
11-13 previously ran in graded Hurdle
12-13 had won a Hurdle with 10 or more runners.
11-13 aged 5-6
No beaten fav lto ever won.
Similar to the county, if State Man comes here, I’ll be all over him.
Skelton sent Langer Dan out a couple of weeks ago and was never put into the race, and low and behold the h’capper dropped him 3lbs for the run. He must have a few quid on him !!!!
He was 2nd in the race last year, but if SM runs I think he’ll be 2nd again.
That’s it from me for today. Hope this helps and I’ll be on over the coming days once we know more as to what races they line up for.
Off to see Batman
BOL
Shout out for langer dan there messing us all up here with the H.CAP,marks langer dan i had some say there droping his mark to so watch out things are lower when they should be higher, there to fly ,i mean Gordons has horses there that the rateings should be up in the 60s but wel no more as the day gets closer ,,mullins says he not nameing jockey rides till day befor race,,
lessofdnegtivaty 3.45 ew well done all winners yesterday
my gut instincts for this game are 2nd to NONE. and i truly mean that. i know it’s of no use to anyone here, but WOW. that is all, BOL. :D
indain brave 4.05 ew
Hi does the 4.05 at Wetherby with the tip on Frimeur de Lancray go down as a non runner or void ? The jockey was unseated just before it started surely that can’t be a losing bet ?
bet365 voided mine but “as a gesture of good will”
the horse came under orders so think it’s classed as a loser depends on your bookie
the race was started as the jockey came off the horse
6:30 Wolverhampton 1 youkon star 9/1 💰💰💰
Santa Anita-R5…Musica 7/2. Up against a well bred Bob Baffert newcomer but Musica had a run and speed figure of 92 so favourite need to be good.
Paddy Power have the fav 2/9 Skybet 4/11 but Bet365 8/11?
Usually I’d jump on what looks a mistake in the betting but not on a newcomer.
Will I Yeah to run later I posted last night above too, probably be watching on replay tomorrow as it’s a school night!
FL and well done the winners today