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Quinault landed the five-timer under a nice ride from the ever-improving Connor Planas. He showed a game attitude to win on the line and gave us a nice 7/1 winner unless you got B.O.G of 15/2.
Chantilly 3:05 – Blue Rose Cen 10/3 (1pt WilliamHill)
The British and Irish racing is fairly rubbish today, and one only horse caught my eye over in France in the French Oaks, AKA the Prix De Diane. I tipped up Blue Rose Cen for the French 1000 Guineas a few weeks ago, and she put in a lovely performance that day, carrying on her progressive profile, and I think she is capable of winning another Group 1 over 10f for the first time.
The stalls gods have been in her favour again by giving her Stall 1. She is a front-runner, so having a low stall is ideal as if she breaks on terms she will be able to grab the lead on the rail, and the very worst-case scenario would be to get a prominent position behind the leader if she doesn't have a good break. This is her first start over this trip, and there will be doubters whether she'll stay the trip or be as effective as she was over 8f. I think she is definitely worth a try as she did do her best in the final furlong or two in the French Guineas, she was off the bridle but when she hit top gear she showed a tremendous turn of foot and kicked away from the field, and I don't think she was stopping at the line.
Another doubt about her is the ground. It frustrates me when you get conflicting reports about the ground in France. I've mentioned it before where you get told the ground is one thing on one website, but another will say it's completely different. According to the Racing Post, the ground is good to soft the night before, they are expecting warm weather in Paris, but there is a couple of showers, so the ground should hopefully be good to soft at the very least. Her pedigree would suggest she should handle the ground, and the way she moves looks like she should be able to handle it as well.
The favourite is the Gosden filly, Running Lion who has been impressive in England, but she has a wide stall of 12, and is normally held up, and I don't think that's the place to be as you'll find trouble in running and if Blue Rose Cen manages to stretch her legs, I can't see how she will bridge the gap.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Nice one Rizzel with Quinault. Going to also have a few quid on Lindy @20/1 in the 3:05. Was doing her best work late on and accelerated nicely, Ferland expecting a big run.
Thanks, Alex. I agree she is massively overpriced, but she does have to contend with a very wide stall, so you would like to see her get a prominent position if possible.
2:05 Doncaster embarked 5/1
2:40 Doncaster salsa dancer 9/2
3:15 Doncaster tajanis 5/1
E/w treble
j adore chas 1.45 ew down
Well done again yesterday Rizzle, you’re on a roll. Hopefully you can carry on your run for Ascot.
Day 1 Dec’s are now in for Ascot on Tuesday.
12 go to post in the opener the Queen Anne.
19 in the King Stand and 9 arguably for the race of the week The St. James’s Palace Stakes.
As I’m not backing anything until RA on Tuesday I will try put up some stats that ive been sent that may help with your selections including draw bias, trainer and jockey stats and best and worst breeding for each race so stay tuned.
Also anybody here from Elvis ?
I hope everything is OK but not like him not to be on.
novakai 3.05 ew chant
Latin 1.25 well done all winners yesterday
Draw Bias Stats for Ascot
Most profitable stall over a distance of 1m over the past 5 years is stall 4 showing a profit of +44.
The worst stall is stall 8 which shows a loss of -58.
Breaking it down into distances
Sprint 5f – 7f
Mile
Middle distance 11f – 12f
Long distance 13f +
Sprints
Low 27%
Middle 33%
Wide 40%
Mile
Low 31%
Middle 38%
High 31%
Middle Distance
Low 20%
Middle 40%
Wide 40%
Long Distance
Low 43%
Middle 16%
High 41%
Wide = High
Don’t know why I used different words but they mean the same thing.
French oaks 3-05 🇫🇷
Lindy 16-1 ew 5 places bet365
And
Tasmania 40-1 ew extra 6 places
Interesting tom Marquand is over to ride this for a trainer on the up in graffard.
Not proven at this level but I’m sure he is not here for a suntan and potentially risking injury in ascot week to ride a donkey
Glad to see you on Elvis.
Top gear 5-00 Chantilly 🇫🇷
7-4 without tribalist and russipsant fal NAP 🏇.
5-2 without tribalist NB
Both bet365…..
Cheers DC.
Wasn’t going to bother pre Ascot but with no footy now had to feed my addiction 🤭.
Ascot is the only flat meeting that comes close to Cheltenham, almost every horse in every race is there to win and not to just give the owners a day out or run deliberately crap to fiddle their handicaps.
Shame I’m at work this week, be a case of place bets, turn phone off and watch it off the old sky planner later on.
Wonder how many flying dismounts Frankie will be doing this week, hope the old git goes out in a high, like him or otherwise he has kept racing relevant with even non racegoers, he has that ingredient missing with the likes of Ryan Moore etc, “a personality”, Frankie to me is flat racing and he will leave a big hole in the sport….
Good luck this week DC and everyone else of course on the racing thread 🏇
Top gear 2nd behind tribalist, both bets won 🏇
Jockeys to follow
Ryan Morre is the leading jockey at ascot but backing him blind you would end up -33 , but if you look deeper into his races when riding a 2yr old for AOB you would end up with a profit of +13. When riding in long distance races he shows a profit of +14, probably down to the fact he’s usually on WMs horses.
Finally, if his horse is within the first 3 in the betting he shows a profit of +26 and 4th or lower in the betting is -60, so he’s unlikely to win on an outsider.
There are some jockeys worth following blind particularly ew
Danny Tudhope +51
Hollies Doyle +10
Hayley Turner +26
Jamie Spencer (aka Frank to some including myself).
Backing him in races up to 1m only to place would have given you a profit each year since 2008 except for 1 year (2010) giving you a profit of +144. So might be worth a small wager this year too.
Trainer stats
Wesley Ward +4.00
Clive Cox +124.00 (150/1 winner)
Willie Mullins +3.75
David O Meara +26
Kevin Ryan +21
The worst performing trainer is Richard Hannon with just a 3% strike rate and would give you a loss of -157.
Blue Rose. Cheers.
Day 1 race details
Now that Day 1 Dec’s are in we can now look at the trainers and horses in detail.
Queen Anne
Of the trainers with entries this year only John Gosden and Richard Hannon have previously won the race. John Gosden is 1-1.
Andrew Balding has had 9 previous entries in the race but has yet to even place.
Looking at breeding
Only Galileo has produced 2 winners.
Some leading sires have yet to have a winner
Danehill Dancer 0 from 6
Dubawi 0 from 6 (not good for Modern Games)
Machiavellian 0 from 5
Shamardal 0 from 5
Siyouni 0 from 5
Coventry
AOB is the only trainer running a horse this year to have had multiple winners (5) in the race.
The only other trainers to have won previously are Andrew Balding and Archie Watson.
No outstanding Sire in this race but once again some leading sires have yet to win the race.
Acclamation 0 from 14
Cape Cross 0 from 8
Danehill Dancer 0 from 7
Royal Applause 0 from 7
Invincible Spirit 0 from 6
King’s Stand
Only 3 trainers have previously won. They are
W. Ward
R. Teal
C. Hills
Best sires
Acclamation (2 Wins)
Kyllachy (2 Wins)
Oasis Dream (2 Wins)
Shamardal (2 Wins)
Worst sires
Compton Place 0 from 12
Exceed And Excel 0 from 11
Pivotal 0 from 9
Kodiac 0 from 7
Royal Applause 0 from 7
St James Palace Stakes
On e again only AOB is the only multiple winner with entries this year.
The only other trainers to have previously won is Brian Meehan.
And once again it is Galileo who is the only Sire to have produced multiple winners of the race.
Danehill 0 from 6
Iffraaj 0 from 5
War Front 0 from 5
Ascot Stakes
Willie Mullins is the leading trainer with 4 Wins. The only other trainer to have more than 1 winner is Ian Williams (2)
Saddlers Wells is the only Sire to have had more than 1 winner.
Galileo 0 from 22
Dalakhani 0 from 7
Dansili 0 from 7
Montjeu 0 from 7
Sir Percy 0 from 7
Wolferton Stakes
Michael Stoute is the only trainer with more than 1 win. Other trainers to have won the race are AOB and Roger Varian.
Both Frankel and Galileo have sired 2 winners.
Cape Cross 0 from 8
Shamardal 0 from 5
Copper Horse Stakes
This is only the 3rd running of this race so no real stats to go on yet.
Just want to re-itterate this is not my work. It was sent to me so I’m not taking any credit for it but hopefully it helps in finding a winner or 2.
BOL
Rizzels at it again 💰
Excellent Rizzle! 👏
Checked in and going to post it myself last night before bed but didn’t want to steel your thunder or moosh (jinx) you! Like it would mattered with that performance!
Was on it last time with ATRs French tipster saying it was a banker of the day and at 10/11 it was and straight in the tracker with 5/2 today now looking a steel. 👌
I had no worries about the distance, that would been all I would have added.
Made it look easier than his last run versus much better horses .
🇫🇷 🥇 🐎
Great stuff yet again Rizzle 👏
Tasmania 3rd 40-1.
Well pleased with that..
Well in rizzler with the winner 🏆
🇺🇸
Not bad last night Stateside?
“Heads up! Monmouth shout Petulante won 7/2 ****
Goodnight Olive 6/5 /***** was a daft price going off 4/7
Let down though with Kingsbarns EVS (*****) or suggested double with Goodnight Olive was pipped on line.
Daft looking hirse and it’s short face! 😋
Tonight!!
Good stuff again tonight in the US of A with Grade 2-3 races and plenty Stakes stuff.
Heads up!”
The San Juan Capistrano Stakes’
Santa Anita -R5…Planetario. 11/4. ****
Canadian with….
Laurel Park -R8…My Sweet Affair 6/4 /****
Belmont-R3…Ministerial 6/4 /***
Race 5…Twenty Six Black 15/8 *****
R8..Mz Big Bucks. 7/2. /****
All Skybet ⬆️
Couple Ew plays
Belmont R2..For The Flag 12/1 Ew Bet365
Santa Anita -R10…Blue Dog 14/1 Ew Bet365 R3 Santa Anita Honey Jar was another but now 5/1.
All top 3 less you find better?
GL all rest of the day m well done with the winners!
🇺🇸
Other that’s far bigger price with PP it’s 5/2 2 others and low as 7/4 with Bet365
Philadelphia -R2…Road To Dreams 16/5 Paddy Power /***
Duffer at Philly but beaut at Belmont’
For The Flag 12/ Ew. WON
Idiot here SHOULD quoted Skybet at 25/1 but few NRs took it down to 2 places so I think that’s why there was such a difference in price when I noticed price but can’t be sure.
Nice one Rizzel should have kept my shiny coins in my pocket for a bigger profit.
Your on a hell of a roll Rizzel. Thanks for the winner today .
Hope your good run of form continues…👍
From The Flag at 20/1 Skybet had 45p reduction so £67 actually became £41 for an change for £2.50 Ew.
12/1 with Bet365 would returned about the same 🤷♂️ 👍
Onwards 👉
Like shelling peas Rizz
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻