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Here We Have It couldn't quite land a blow in the race yesterday. He was weak in the market for most of the day, whilst the winner was well supported. The winner was given a straight forward ride from the front, and jumped well and deserved to win.
The more I look at this race, I more I think it's difficult for SONG FOR SOMEONE to lose, if he turns up on the same level as he did when finishing runner-up to Buzz. That day he has both Guard Your Dreams & Goshen behind, and it's hard to see how they could possibly reverse that form.
Since then, Guard Your Dreams beat Song For Someone when they met against each other at Cheltenham. However, the winner was receiving 6lbs from the selection, whereas today they race off the same weight. Also, I don't think that was the true showing of Song For Someone who took a lifetime to get going, and didn't get get to the winner, but was closing with every yard.
Goshen is always going to be an interesting horse, due to his campaign as a juvenile where it appeared he had the world at his feet. His career hasn't gone in the direction that 99% of people thought it would, and he has started to become frustrating to watch and back, as his ability is there, but whether he wants to put it all together is up for debate. Personally, I think he is worth siding against, and at this point in his career, he either needs bottomless ground or a longer trip. The return to a right-handed track will be in his favour, but he seems to stay well these days, as shown by last time at Lingfield, so this trip isn't ideal nowadays.
The selection will appreciate this track, with the stiff finish it has, but also a strong pace, which looks likely. Global Citizen is in this race, and although that seems a strange idea by connections, as he could clearly exploit his current handicap mark, it is a bonus for us, as long as he doesn't get loose on the front end. He will set a good gallop, and will ensure the race is ran at a good tempo, as he only knows one way of running. There is a chance that even if he does get loose, he won't last up the Sandown hill.
I was a big fan of Reviere D'etel and the manner in which he completed his first few races for Gordon Elliot over fences, but the fact he couldn't take advantage of the weight he had over Ferny Hollow makes me think he will struggle to beat BLUE LORD who will have to give away 9lbs to the Elliot trained runner.
Blue Lord looked a natural over fences in his latest win. That was only a three runner race, so it wasn't an impressive win, but the manner in which he did it suggested he will be a big player in the novice races over 2m this year. Willie Mullins has targetted that race at Naas previously, with Energumene winning it the time before. I've always felt there was a top class horse with this lad when he was seen over hurdles last year. He ran a huge race at Cheltenham where he was booked for runner-up behind Appreciate it until he fell at the last hurdle. Willie has won this race in recent years with some of his smart novices chasers, like Energumene, Douvan, Footpad & Un De Sceaux, so he clearly knows what kind of horse it takes to win this contest.
This is a cracking race, like it is most years, and the horse I have been drawn to is an outsider. JANIDIL is going to be my play in this race, after thinking long and hard about his chances of staying the trip out. He has been tried at the trip previously, and on a couple of occasions he hasn't ran too badly, only being beaten by stronger stayers, which could also be the case today, but at the odds, I think he is worth a shot.
With Frodon in the race, you know this is going to be ran at a good gallop, as he likes to run from the front and get into a lovely rhythm. I know Cairnzy is a huge fan of Frodon and Bryony, and might even put him up, but I can't be having him in this race. I think his Gold Cup was at Down Royal at the start of the season, and even though he beat Galvin who has gone on to boost the form, I think he was 100% ready for that, whereas the others weren't, and he only just about won. He is a tremendous horse, but I think he will get caught in the final stages of the race. Kemboy is a solid horse who often goes very well in this race, and I think this is realistically, his main target for the season, as I simply don't think he jumps well enough to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is a classy horse, will be tough to beat, but at the odds, I think he can swerved.
Janidil will have question marks over his stamina, and rightly so, as he is still yet to prove himself over this far. However, I think he is worth another try based on the fact that Willie Mullins has entered in for this. He clearly knows a lot more than 99% of people involved with horses, so if he thinks he stays, that's good enough for me. I'd expect Mark Walsh to hold him up, and creep him into contention. He clearly has a lot of pace about him, so he'll need to switch him off, and hope he jumps well enough to not get detached at the back. His form behind Allaho is very good form in grand scheme of things, and even though the winner that day did it better than the winning margins, it was a good run, and is arguably one of the best pieces of form on offer.
As for the rest, Minella Indo can be dodged. He shows his best form at Cheltenham, and needs a real test of stamina to see him to best effect. Asterion Forlonge is one who will probably be well fancied on the morning of the race, as he is a lovely horse, who looks like he is going to play a huge part in the race, but then has a lapse in concentration and commits a silly mistake. If he puts everything together, he could go close.
12:00 Southwell - Race: 1
12:15 Bath - Race: 1
12:20 Punchestown - Race: 1