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It was a profitable day for Wednesday with two winners delivering the goods. It was a nice 2yo debut performance from Bobsleigh and the Gosden debutante was very impressive, looking like a proper filly to follow.
Ayr 2:00 – Bert Kibbler 9/4 (1pt B365)
This is a very very weak race and I think it is between the two at the head of the weights, but I'm siding with Bert Kibbler to come out victorious.
He is clearly a better horse on the AW as his record on turf would suggest, being 0/7 on grass but is 4/11 on artificial surfaces. However, that doesn't mean he isn't capable of running well on turf, especially in a race of this nature which looks extremely poor. He was well fancied to run well at Musselburgh in a 16-runner handicap, going off as 11/2F but he finished in the middle of the pack and was behind Jordan Electrics, who reopposes him today. I think he sat too close to the pace, and he felt the consequences of that as he dwindled through the field to finish 10th. In today's race, I think he can sit closer to the pace as it won't be as quick as it was on good to soft then, and the quicker ground should suit based on his pedigree.
The yard has had a couple of winners on the weekend just passed and he has dropped 2 lbs for that run, as well as Gianluca Sanna taking off a further 7 lbs. I think his main rival might struggle over 5f at the track on quick ground, with him preferring a stiffer track over 5f as he does his majority of winning over 6f. The rest of the field has plenty of questions to answer.
Salisbury 4:20 – Kensington 4/1 (1pt Whill/Paddy)
Backing John & Thady Gosden horses has been good to me in the past couple of days, so I'll be siding with another one of theirs in this race.
Kensington should be much better than her opening handicap rating of 78 and if she is tuned up for seasonal reappearance she could take some stopping in this contest. My main concern isn't her fitness as the Gosden's have been popping winning out on debut, so clearly have their yard in fine fettle, but the concern is stall 11 which is the widest in this race, so will either have to use a bit of petrol to sit handy or take a sit towards the back. Either way, I'm still a believer than she is better than this field today and can progress.
She has a decent pedigree and being by Frankel she should be fine with the relatively slow ground at Salisbury. She looked like a horse who would appreciate a stiff track, so the uphill finish should be up her street too, which coincides with her pedigree as Frankel seems to produce plenty of stayers. The form looks okay from her latest run as her stablemate went on to run well at Class 1 Listed level.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Start tomorrow with another 6 🙏🤷♂️🤞
Well that wasn’t a profitable 6
Onwards
I always wake up early after a bottle of plonk or two so, forgive me for the size of the post, but let’s hope it isn’t a complete embarrassment.
Far From a Ruby is very tempting in a pot luck apprentice race, does well at the track, won with this jockey and is only 2 higher. If the apprentice was claiming, and there was a bit of juice in the ground, I would be all over it. COSA SARA would also be of serious interest, he enjoys firm ground, is a C&D winner and has beat FFAR, although now 7lbs worse off for a 1.5l victory. COSA was 12th lto, the apprentice does do a lot of winning but is 0-3 for Jim Goldie and on balance I will take him on. FFAR was 4th lto in a race his trainer won, given it was over 7f and all his winning is over a mile, that is at least a positive. Before the race, the 3rd has 25213, the 5th had won twice this year, the 6th had won, and came 2nd & 3rd soon after. It isn’t one we can be overly convinced by but, I have placed many worse bets, at bigger stakes on horses I hadn’t even looked at, and on balance, betting with a bankroll, there is absolutely no reason to not stake 0.5pt on it and hope if it does lose, it isn’t to COSA SARA.
In the next race, Rizzle has tipped Bert Kibbler, he says it’s between the top two, I believe if Mulrennan and Goldie are to have a winner today, it’s later on the card, their horse in this also prefers 6f not 5. Rizzle’s horse is a combo I do rate, and it’s been supported, although 365 are still giving 15/8. I don’t see value taking him on, however, there are only 7 runners and you can get 3 places, unfortunately SIXCOR is 4s and not 5s so e/w is not currently an option but he needs consideration and again, if operating for long term gains, halving the stake and chancing it does have lots of value. The horse has won 3 times, all being over C&D, it’s the claimer I mentioned in the first race, who can take 5 off in this and has been used effectively by the trainer. A huge red flag is Linda Perratt is 0-26 over the last 3 years with horses from a 90+ day break which is a chunky nail in the coffin and perhaps a forecast is the order of the day, I however will chance half a point as it’s of little significance with a 100pt system.
Although odds on shots is often a chance for value, I see a 4/9f and typically move on, especially for a big name combo such as Fanning and Johnston. FLEUR DE MER jockey/trainer shared a winner yesterday and although often not a strong ‘form line’, it is around 8/1 and could be the one to chance e/w.
FLYLIKEANEAGLE won lto, and the claimer puts it 1 lower, a penalty kick all being well, a two time course winner on ground it’ll enjoy. Watson and O’meara aren’t mugs, but the form figures alone aren’t inspiring whilst Fanning/Dalgleish do OK together, from the owners of BRINGITONBORIS. As an e/w backer, two places isn’t my thing, SHOWMEDEMONEY caught my eye but there are plenty of reasons to avoid sadly, look out for the combo later in the card, despite the yard being TERRIBLE out of sorts. Both SHINE ON BRENDAN & STAR SHIELD are C&D winners and will enjoy the going, it’s hard to point anyone towards either given the chances of the fav, but an interesting race.
OUR ABSENT FRIENDS is a drifter, the jockey/trainer won this race last year. I have often been guilty of small drifts putting me off and am currently undecided if 11/8 to 15/8 is a good thing or not. A lightly raced horse with a couple of wins already albeit on the AW. We know all the favs can’t go in but the Water of Leith is now just about the same price yet he has only beat 1 of 22 horses in two runs this season, he is a multiple course winner and will enjoy the going but I’m hoping he’s a bookie horse, and one I won’t mind not being on should it go in. Foreseeable Future is becoming well hcapped but again, two places and I think we play it safe on the fav with a half stake.
GRACES QUEST is the horse I thought Goldie/Mulrennan had most chance with at a very quick glance. Given how much I’ve wrote, I won’t be digging deep in this race, Paddy Mathers and Smith are a small yard that pop up and ones I follow, but I hate to let the bookies down and not having a stab in every race, so without investigation, Grace will do for me.
There are some well hcapped horses in the lucky last, Merricourt won it last year off 2 higher and despite two duck eggs this season on that basis you could chuck change on him at 13/2 e/w, it’s hard to think Jardine gives his claimer the win in this, but she does put the horse 7 below his last win. LILIKOI is another from the Bert Kibbler connections, he’s done it on firm ground off this mark and has some decent results at the track, with 365 still offering 11/2, would be the one I chance as an e/w shot to nothing. Although paper form can be completely useless, he has some OK stuff, strong runs from Cosa Sara and FFAR would increase his chances by 0.16%.
a horse’s last run should guide more accurately than one a year ago, so being only 11th lto and an old boy taking on horses half his age comes with risks, especially without looking at rivals and not an each way price but basically on this day last year LITTLE JO (1455red) was 2nd off 16 higher, based on that 0.5pt win around 4s is fine, bet late as possible, get on ew if big drift.
BOOOOOOM, ayr not going too well, should’ve stuck with COSA SARA on the ground, but the little jo bolttttttts up. love to see it.
French guy Laurent Barbarin ATR has put up a cheeky wee double at Dieppe
11.15 Placenet
12.47 Courtesy Call
Pays about 4/1
GLIYF
🙏
There’s always one that lets you down ! As I will find out later no doubt ! 😂
6:35 lingfield- mamillus 5/1
8:05 lingfield- sovereign spirit 5/4
Each way on the second selection 😀
was going to buy a charles and camilla set of slippers but i think ill put it on that each way pick 😂 although im already on it to finish exactly 9th at 15/8
Rather buy a pair of camillas soiled panties with Charles ear wax smudged in the 😋
funny you mention them, a little crusty since i got them back in the 90s but celebrity paraphernalia before they were famous is a sought after market, i’ll give you first refusal, no silly offers
market update as overall never seen nowt like it.. jordan electric shortened massively, i still think the now available 5/1 3 places on SIXCOR is the play.
1/3 hey lyla IS NOW EVENS. i mentioned the ew play at 8/1 was the palmer horse, NO NRS at its like 9/4, what the heck!!
fly/sorlikeaneagle is 10/3 from EVENS wow, dalgleish is retiring soon so keeping tabs on him but nothing to advise.
our absent world 11/8 now 5/2, sheesh lewish!
Egot 4-18 Chantilly 🇫🇷
4-1 bet365
merci!!!! good lad!
Cheers cash 🇫🇷👍
flying moon 4.10 lady la Bella 4.20 well done all winners yesterday and today
mews house 4.30
novak 4.40
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Well should been very bullish although couldn’t have said more about Warrant who won at 12/1 last night 13/2 insure bet and son on with any way I went! Yer again but Nap was only as rest bar 1!
#Tonight’s the night# 🎶 😉😋
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Canadian or Yankee etc from these using the * picks for sure .
Belmont-R6.Maggie T 7/2 she gets around Oor Maggie and well up to this after break then good run lto
Churchhill Downs -R2…Scarlet Strip 5/2
R6…Run Classic 5/2 Nb /****
R9..Miles Ahead 10/3 Nap/*****
Side bet Reverse Forcastt 2-7
Churchill Downs R10…Annopilis 5/6.
Side bet R/fc 3-5
Golden Gates -R1…Kerry Gold 6/4/
Hawthorne-R8…Unified Dreams 2/1/***
GL all and well done to winners today 👌 ☑️
recon mission 6.35 ew
perfect symphony 7.05 ew
perfect symphony 7.05 ew