Racing tips: Awaal eyes up Class 1 honours at Longchamp

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After some rough days, I'm back for some horse racing. Thanks as always to my pal Cairnzy for filling in for me in my absence.

Longchamp 3:45 – Awaal 4/1 (1pt)

Skalleti is the short-priced favourite for this contest and based on old pieces of form, including last year you can understand why, but at the age of 8 he has to be taken on by a younger and improving horse in the shape of Awaal.

When studying the Lincoln at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago I was very keen on this horse winning the race, and it didn't surprise me to see him sitting towards the head of the market that day as to win a race of that nature you more than likely have to be a group horse in a handicap, and that is what I thought he was, based on his final run of 2022 at Redcar when he hosed up by 3.75L in a Class 3, recording an RPR of 110. That was a very impressive performance and he just oozed class, I think his run in the Lincoln where he finished 2nd off a heavy weight in the race of 9st 7lbs was a great effort, and the horse who beat him has always been regarded as a very nice horse, so it's no shame in losing to him.

Obviously, with the Lincoln being his main aim for the start of the season he will have been primed for that race, but after such a big layoff, there is always a chance that he might've needed the run, so this run at Longchamp might see an improved effort as he steps up into Class 1 territory for the first time.

The rise into Class 1 company doesn't bother me, as he has always looked like a top-class horse capable of mixing it at this level. This distance and soft ground will be perfect for him and at the odds I think he is a great alternative to the favourite.

Cheltenham 3:50 – Under Control 11/4 (1pt)

I really think this race is a terrible renewal, normally I'd look towards the bottom of the weights and find something which is potentially well-handicapped, but I don't think there is any. You'd have to say Pretending is on a good mark, but that horse is rogue. She should have already won races, so the fact she hasn't is very concerning and I couldn't touch her with a barge poll, as soon as she hits the front she goes bananas and can't control herself.

The one I've landed on is Under Control trained by Nicky Henderson. Carrying big weights is never ideal, but I don't rate the opposition in this race and I was very impressed by how she won at Newbury on her stable debut for Nicky. She won on the bridle, and though she didn't exactly beat much it was the manner in which she won, looking like a really nice horse for the future. The form isn't great but the 3rd did win nicely the time after. She did bomb out when running in the Mares' Novice hurdle race, but that was against her elders and that was just her third start over hurdles so she can easily be forgiven for that, and is now against her own age group in a much worse race.

Newmarket 3:00 – Silky Wilkie 12/1 (1pt)

There is a very high chance that Silky Wilkie will be outclassed in today's race, now he's up into a Class 1 race, but I think at the odds you can take a chance on him being able to bridge the gap between handicapping company and Graded company.

This race is a decent renewal with the previous Group 1 winning Creative Force, but based on this being his first run of the year I think you can take a chance by taking him on. It's always a big concern when you back a horse coming from handicaps to Class 1 races, but based on his recent win at Musselburgh, you'd have to say he is ready to take that chance. He probably was suited by how the race panned out at Musselburgh as he was close to the pace, but the way he put the race to bed and extended away from the rest of them was in the style of a horse who has taken his form to a new level. That form was much better than what we saw over the winter on the AW, and that's not a surprise considering he is 1/8 on the AW and is now 5/17 on the turf with many more placed efforts.

With him having a fitness advantage over many of these in this field I think he could surprise many. Karl Burke has started to get rolling with his form and has picked up some recent winners and this looks like a nice opportunity for him to run a big race, as without the favourite, this wouldn't look anywhere near as good.

Even though he is decent odds and you have an odds-on favourite, I won't be playing him as each way. I think the risk of going for the win is worth it with more returns on a lesser stake. You can obviously go for the EW, but I'll go for a small punt on the straight win, as I think he'll drop in price anyway.

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