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Thanks as always to Cairnzy for stepping in for my absence. I'm feeling a bit better today, and the win on Five Towns did make it a bit easier for me when I was struggling on Monday evening.
Bath 4:00 – Mayfair Gold 13/2 (0.5pt EW PaddyPower)
At first glance, I thought Tamila was interesting, but carrying 10st 2lbs and the jockey booking of the South African, Greg Cheyne doesn't fill me confidence, instead, I've opted to back Mayfair Gold.
This consistent filly looks to need a step up in trip based on her recent runner-up finishes on the AW. She doesn't have the best turn of foot, which isn't ideal around the AW tracks, but she also seems to have more stamina than the 10f she has been racing over. The form of her previous two runs gives me plenty of optimism that her current handicap mark of 75 is well within reach. She was behind Croachill, who was a previous selection of mine earlier this season and when I tipped her up I thought she was a well-handicapped horse, who was capable of much more but she didn't learn to settle until she beat Mayfair Gold where she relaxed and it all clicked, so the fact she got to within 0.75L of the winner bodes well. The third horse in that race has since come out and won in good style and the fourth finished in the places in a Class 3 contest.
The time before last she finished 2nd to Totnes who has since won a decent handicap at Chepstow in the Racing League, winning a Class 3 contest 25k prize by 3L. The third-placed horse at Chelmsford behind Mayfair Gold won next time out as well.
Alan King's yard has been quite quiet in recent weeks, so to see him get 2 winners at the start of September is great to see and considering this horse was running well in that patch where he didn't get many winners also bodes well.
Kempton 8:30 – Zero Carbon 7/2 (1pt Bet365)
A tricky little contest comes in the penultimate race of the Kempton evening meeting, but I think that Zero Carbon might be too big odds even at 7/2.
He is clearly better on the AW as his record would suggest. He is 4/6 on the artificial surfaces with a further 2 placed efforts in the races he didn't manage to win, and is 1/9 on the turf. He is still a lightly raced horse in terms of his AW career and I think a mark of 84 is well within reach based on his record, especially at Kempton where he is 2/2 at the venue. He was only put up 2lb for his recent win over Gulmarg who has been running in some decent handicaps at the start of the year, so I rate that as solid form. The recent run produced an RPR of 91, so a 2lb rise in the weight seems lenient. He is drawn in Stall 1, and he made all last time under Finley Marsh so the option to repeat that is there from the lowest stall, but in a race with 8 runners, I'd imagine he'd take a sit just behind the pace and not get into a pace burnup.
Richard Hughes is in fine form at the moment, with 6 winners coming in the last 14 days from 28 runners (21% SR).
Bath - 4:00 pm
13/2 @ PaddyPower
Kempton Park - 8:30 pm