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Thanks as always to Cairnzy for stepping in for my absence. I'm feeling a bit better today, and the win on Five Towns did make it a bit easier for me when I was struggling on Monday evening.
Bath 4:00 – Mayfair Gold 13/2 (0.5pt EW PaddyPower)
At first glance, I thought Tamila was interesting, but carrying 10st 2lbs and the jockey booking of the South African, Greg Cheyne doesn't fill me confidence, instead, I've opted to back Mayfair Gold.
This consistent filly looks to need a step up in trip based on her recent runner-up finishes on the AW. She doesn't have the best turn of foot, which isn't ideal around the AW tracks, but she also seems to have more stamina than the 10f she has been racing over. The form of her previous two runs gives me plenty of optimism that her current handicap mark of 75 is well within reach. She was behind Croachill, who was a previous selection of mine earlier this season and when I tipped her up I thought she was a well-handicapped horse, who was capable of much more but she didn't learn to settle until she beat Mayfair Gold where she relaxed and it all clicked, so the fact she got to within 0.75L of the winner bodes well. The third horse in that race has since come out and won in good style and the fourth finished in the places in a Class 3 contest.
The time before last she finished 2nd to Totnes who has since won a decent handicap at Chepstow in the Racing League, winning a Class 3 contest 25k prize by 3L. The third-placed horse at Chelmsford behind Mayfair Gold won next time out as well.
Alan King's yard has been quite quiet in recent weeks, so to see him get 2 winners at the start of September is great to see and considering this horse was running well in that patch where he didn't get many winners also bodes well.
Kempton 8:30 – Zero Carbon 7/2 (1pt Bet365)
A tricky little contest comes in the penultimate race of the Kempton evening meeting, but I think that Zero Carbon might be too big odds even at 7/2.
He is clearly better on the AW as his record would suggest. He is 4/6 on the artificial surfaces with a further 2 placed efforts in the races he didn't manage to win, and is 1/9 on the turf. He is still a lightly raced horse in terms of his AW career and I think a mark of 84 is well within reach based on his record, especially at Kempton where he is 2/2 at the venue. He was only put up 2lb for his recent win over Gulmarg who has been running in some decent handicaps at the start of the year, so I rate that as solid form. The recent run produced an RPR of 91, so a 2lb rise in the weight seems lenient. He is drawn in Stall 1, and he made all last time under Finley Marsh so the option to repeat that is there from the lowest stall, but in a race with 8 runners, I'd imagine he'd take a sit just behind the pace and not get into a pace burnup.
Richard Hughes is in fine form at the moment, with 6 winners coming in the last 14 days from 28 runners (21% SR).
5:30 Southwell- ray vonn 5/1
4:00 bath – Avon light 9/1
8:30 kempton- mitrosonfire 11/2
lovely cap 10.50 well done all winners yesterday
cambel 12.25 ew
just nelsa 11.50
Hold the press just won at 100-1 at lingfield
In its last 6 races it’s finished last 5 times and 9th of 11 in the other.
Get the feeling punters are being mugged off in these low grade donk fest ⚡
It pays for the real racing Elvis
They can’t loose, mug us off in this shxt and all that profit leaves plenty for settling the proper’stuff’
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Bookies are finally doing betting on Presque Isle Downs in USA now? Pennsylvania track I think and strange they never did betting in first place.
Presque Isle Downs -R6…Warriors Payoff 10/3 ****.
GL today folk
Add for a Canadian or trebles and wee 4 folds
Finger Lakes -R5….Wartrapped 10/11 *****
Thistledown -R7….Hard To Please 5/4 Bet365 ****
Deleware -R1…Happy Union 9/2 Bet365 **+
R7…Touchdown Montage 10/11. Bet365 *****.
Deleware-R2…Scamper Along. 13/2. Ew. ***
Or it’s EVS top 3
Belterra -R1…Midnight J J 7/4 *** Skybet
GL all ?
Warren hill 4.00 well done all winners today
3 – Renardeau @ 22/1
16:25 Southwell – 7f Hcap
Asmund
Belle of Annandale 4-39 Hexham 2-1
Pipped by 37 lengths ?
For Jim 5-14 Hexham.
16-1 ew extra 6 places.
33-1 ew 4 places SKYBET (small stake)
Won here 3 times, 10 pounds lower than his last win.
On a going day he is well In.
Either pulls up or runs well especially if allowed to lead
???????????????
6-18 Hexham has a horse called frightened rabbit.
The jockey is called Connor rabbit.
Should be trained by “Warren” greatrex I reckon…..
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Heros de moutiers 6-48 Hexham.
13-10 (price boost) top 3 finish… NAP ?.
Best price elsewhere evens!!
Only drawback is horrible Hughes doing the driving
2nd…..
NAP saves the day ?
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First won a Belterra 7/4. Went off 6/5
Belterra -Race 2…Emerald Eyes 6/5 ***
Easy as ✅
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if only Belterra would have prices up early rather than 15 minutes before at best??
Go for ONE more same track and it’s still SP and predicted price is 7/2 but anything around 2/1 be good
Belterra- Race 3….Fast Felix SP.
The odds should appear 5.55pm for 6.10pm tee off and of course it’s good bet it will be late off being the US of A’
If it wins that been nice Trixie or treble but dems de breaks at Belterra! ?♂️
GL rest of the evening with bets folk and well done to any winners today ?
11/10! ⬆️. ?
Not great at all but such a big class drop it should be winning.
Could be trip to glue factory after this race…and Fast Felix won’t be invited!’ ?
Be conducting the tour of that glue factory visit! Pi$$ed it by about 10 lengths. ?
“Pass the 4 furlong pole and you can almost start the walk to collect your dollars if your on Fast Felix because this cats gone!” Lol
He’s a good commentator at Belterra whoever he his.
May as well try keep shelling these peas at Belterra!? ?
Race 4….Ditchotomy. 13/8. Skybet
R/fc with No:7.