Racing tips: Alflaila could be in a league of his own in the Darley Stakes

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Friday's racing was an equal day with Cloth Cap not running due to the ground being too fast, which is a little strange considering he likes quick ground, but hey-ho. State Occasion was put in her place in a very good race, to be honest, and Press Your Luck won with ease at Chepstow on chasing debut.

Just a heads up, I've got quite a few selections for today's racing, so the write-ups will be short and sweet to reduce the length of the full thing, hopefully, you're all okay with that.

Chepstow 1:42

Not ideal going for a horse juvenile hurdler who is making their debut over obstacles but I get the feeling AGE OF SAIL could be a horse to be on the right side of for the Gary Moore stable, who generally has a couple of good 3yo's for each jumps season.

He has a flat pedigree being by Frankel and was a steady enough handicapper on the flat before making this transition. His flat speed will come in handy in a race of this nature where most horses will still be finding their feet with their jumping so the speed he can make up for any particular ropey jumping he has in his locker.

The fact Gary Moore brings him to this race on the opening day of the official jumps season makes me believe he is confident that he has a good one on his hands as he could've found him a nice opportunity at a local track, but instead he travels to Wales. The horse carries the colours of last year's good juvenile horse and a horse I like a lot in Porticello, so potentially this could be their best horse for this year (owner).

Chepstow 2:17

A couple of well-known jumps horses make their return for the season in this race but none of them really stand out to me unlike TEA CLIPPER who won at this meeting in 2020 and 2021, so it's clearly a meeting that Tom Lacey targets for this horse.

Off a handicap mark of 142, I think he has all the credentials to be very competitive in this based on the fact that he was 4th/24 in the Ultimate handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last year off 3lbs higher. He went through that race like a very good horse and one who should've potentially gotten closer but I think his stamina caught him out on a track which is very testing. Back to Chepstow which is evidently a track which suits him, I think his stamina is less of a problem, especially over this shorter trip and if I'm being perfectly honest I think he is the one they all have to beat.

Chepstow 3:27

David Brace who is the dad to Connor (rides today) is a horse trainer but also has some horses in training with Fergal O'Brien, but he still owns them, he has either owned or trained the winner of this race the past two years, which is of major significance to me.

PAINT THE DREAM is his horse in this race with Connor Brace doing the steering for the Fergal O'Brien trained horse. He is such a likeable horse who is more than capable of winning this four-runer contest off top weight of 12st. He put up a career-best off 11st 11lbs at Newbury last year in a Grade 3 where he pulverised the opposition winning by 15L, recording an RPR of 164 in the process.

I get the feeling this race is the early season target for Paint The Dream, with 20k prize money available and he's back to retain his crown as he won this race 12 months ago. I don't think the opposition is on his level so the weight discrepancy isn't a major thing to me as I think his class will slow.

Chepstow 4:37

There are some good horses in this race but Impulsive One is a horse I'd be happy enough to never back again as he was one extremely overrated horse last year. Henderson said he wanted good ground, so I got reeled in on a couple of occasions where the ground was good and he just wasn't very good, even though he landed a Listed race at Ayr last year. I can see why Bagheera Ginge is the favourite, he's got the recent wins and fitness on his side but has he actually beaten anything?

For me, SILVER SHADE has to be a player in this for one of the stories of last year, Milton Harris. Milton proved last year that he is a quality trainer and when given the ammunition he will hit the target more often than not. He finds suitable races for his horses and I think this will be a good opening for Silver Shade who showed glimpses of ability last year as a Juvenile.

His jumping wasn't great last year at points so I'd expect that to be improved now and with Milton Harris flying along again this year (27% SR in the past 14 days and 22% in the new jumps season) he is worth a small EW bet.

Newmarket 2:25

I'm not sure what the ground will be like at Newmarket as there is some rain forecast but not a massive amount, so anywhere between good and good-to-soft would be my guess and if that's the case then EPICTETUS is still a good bet in my eyes.

John & Thady Gosden appear to have another nice one on their hands with this lad who has only raced once but won in good style and the form is starting to work out nicely.

He beat Desert Order (Godolphin) who has since won a Class 2 at York. Flying Honours was back in 4th and he has since won a Class 1 Listed race and finished a 0.5L behind The Foxes in a Group 2 a couple of weeks ago.

Epictetus won with authority on debut and looked like a horse who had much more to give, showing class. I don't rate Holloway Boy as much as some people do, even though I got sucked into backing him last time out! but I think he is definitely worth taking on.

Newmarket 3:40

With the Cesarewitch you have so many horses who will come into this race with very good chances, so I can't say for sure that one horse will win but the ones which did catch my eye other than my selection were Ahorsewithnoname & Vino Victrix. The former might not like the ground if the rain turns it into a testing surface and Vino Victrix is a horse I've been a big fan of and if he wins this then fair play but I thought his form of last time around, though it looks good visually, I think it flattered him massively so there's a huge overreaction to him.

For me, I'm taking a chance on a Willie Mullins runner (what a shocker right) who makes his debut for the yard in the shape of SCARAMANGA.

I think it is of huge notice and shows the belief that Willie has, is that he makes his debut for the stable in a race of this nature where he has won on multiple occasions. He was intended to run in the Irish equivalent of this race but didn't get a spot in the race so they've opted to run him here. I think it's a vote of confidence to bring him here on stable debut as he must've been showing something really good on the gallops at home for them to try it, so for that reason, I'm putting my EW trust in Willie, who is easily the best Jumps trainer who has ever lived but is still very capable of training one for a good prize on the flat.

Jason Watson is a noticeable booking and a booking that Willie has gone to land this race on two occasions (Stratum 2019, Great White Shark 2020), so is that a coincidence?

Newmarket 4:50

Another competitive race, which is the general story of Saturday races, but especially today, but at the current odds I think PINK CRYSTAL is worth an EW bet.

Fillies races, especially Class 1 races can often throw up some weird results and more than often ratings go out the window, so I am siding with William Haggas' 3yo filly who gave Gale Force Maya something to think about last time out at Ayr where I tipped up GFM but Pink Crystal was staying on strongly.

Due to her staying on so well I think this trip and track could play to her strengths and allow the stamina she clearly has to come out and be used. She is a horse with ability but it hasn't fully clicked for her yet as shown with her 5th-placed finish at York where she was slow away, travelled nicely but founds no gaps and eventually finished as an eye-catcher. If she breaks slowly today she'll be in trouble, but if she breaks on terms then she is a definite EW player in my eyes and 8/1 is a fair enough price.

Newmarket 5:20

Potentially my NAP of the day runs in the last race at Newmarket. My only concern is whether the ground will be testing and if it does, will it suit ALFLAILA, but either way, I'm willing to find out with my money on the line as I think this horse has a lot of class and could be better than this field,

I was madly impressed with his win last time out at York in a Group 3 where he won by 2.25L, beating Finest Sound who runs in this race today. That was on fast ground and he hasn't raced on anything slower than good so the small amount of rain forecast is a concern, but he is by Dark Angel so that makes me think he should be fine with the ground and the Dam won on soft, so based on that you'd think we'd be okay. In terms of the form, Finest Sound has since finished 2nd in a Group 2 and 3rd in a Group 1, so it stacks up well in my eyes.

I don't think this race is particularly that good, which might sound daft, but I get the feeling it's screaming out for a horse who is unexposed to come and blow the older horses away and that is Alflaila.

What are your racing tips for Saturday? let me know in the comment section below.

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