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Yesterday's flat selection was convincingly beaten, with no excuses. He travelled well, but didn't pick up as well as the others. Today sees a return to the jumps racing, fingers crossed on some good runs.
A three runner race, but a competitive and intriguing race. In a race of this nature, you normally get an odds-on shot, but that doesn't appear to be the case, and I will be siding with the current market favourite at the time of writing, AIMEE DE SIVOLA.
I was very taken by her chase debut at Worcester. I managed to catch the entire race, as I tipped up Thistle Do Nicely in the same race, where unfortunately she went wrong around the final turn. Aimee De Sivola jumped very well for the most part, and I was impressed. I think this step-up in trip will be beneficial and a return to a right-handed track will also be a help, as she edged out to the right on a few of her fences. There is also a chance that she'll get an uncontested lead, which is always a benefit in a small field race as it can often get quite tactical. If David Noonan can pop her out in front, get her into a nice rhythm, she'll be hard to beat, if she can jump like she did on chase debut.
Fox Pro has the best form over fences, and has mixed it with some good quality animals. However, he is 0 from 8 over fences, and is always going to be vulnerable to an improver, like the selection. Also, this is his first run on the back of a 100+ day break, and there is a strong chance that he'll need the run, as he's only won once when fresh. The form of the yard is a little worrying if you're backing this fella, with 0 wins so far this season (a couple have ran well). No Anxiety also makes a return from a 100+ day absence, so might need the run. However, I do think he is the horse who will finish second behind the selection, as this trip looks to suit and some pieces of form has worked out quite well.
This isn't something I normally do, but I think it's the best option. Presenting Yeats hold a strong chance, and probably deserves to be favourite, but I do like MANNING ESTATE. I think the safer option is to bet without the favourite.
Manning Estate made an encouraging return after a 158 day break, to finish 3rd. The winner went on to finish second in his next race, and Manning Estate was dropped 4lbs by the handicapper. This slight drop back in trip will be better for him, and he'll strip fitter for that run at Newton Abbot. Off his current mark of 113 he is starting to look dangerously well handicapped on old pieces of form. He won in the early parts of 2020 off a mark of 120, winning a Class 3 hurdle at Doncaster. Since then he has been tried in decent races, and over fences, which hasn't exactly gone to plan.
I'd normally go ahead and play the straight win on a horse, but the weight he'd have to give away to Presenting Yeats, who is clearly in good form could be a little too much. But, I wouldn't put off anyone going for the straight win.
I don't worry any of the others in the race. Jen's Boy often finds nothing when asked, and is probably still a little too high in the weights to do any damage. The same comments apply to Morraman, who has gone close off higher marks and has won on his current mark, but based on his last couple of runs, he looks vulnerable. Some Detail also looks a tad high in the weights after he got a hike for winning in Summer.
This market (betting without fav) might not be open till the morning of racing.
UPDATE: PaddyPower are offering 2/1 on this market (9am).
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