Two picks for Saturday's racing, with a strong pick in Sayyida, and a big outsider in the Northumerland Plate.
A mark of 85 could be an extremely low mark for SAYYIDA, who is a half-sister to 2018 Derby winner, Masar.
This lightly raced 3yo has plenty more to come if she has come on for her run at Newmarket in May. On that day she was quite green when William Buick asked her to pick up, as she struggled to run straight. Despite this, she pulled right away and was going further away at the line, which suggests she had much more to give, even though it took her a while to get into top gear.
Charlie Appleby must rate her, as she was entered in a Group 3 at Chantilly a couple of weeks ago. Even though she was a non-runner in that race, the intention was still there, and Charlie isn't one to pitch horses in the deep end, unless he thinks they're up to the task, and especially in France, where he has done extremely well in Group races in the last few years.
The form of her recent win looks better than what it looks like on paper. The runner up has since finished third at Haydock, and I think the two horses who finished in front will be better horses than their current ratings, so that wasn't a bad run. Also, the 5th in that race won next time out. Golden Bugle who was third behind Sayyida, has since won at Doncaster, and I also think that race will produce winners in the not too distant future.
I think the 3yo's will dominate this race, with Something Exciting probably being the main danger. By Starlight looks on a good mark of 75, but she is a 4yo so it will be a very good performance to give the weight away when she is a lot lower in the handicap.
This race is hard to have a strong fancy, but I think LUCKY DEAL could potentially outrun his odds.
I think the decision to put 5lb claimer, Andrew Breslin on is a smart decision, as that will put him on a mark of 95, which does make him more attractively weighted on his previous exploits. Tough he has won three times on turf, I do think at this moment in his career, he is a better horse on the All-Weather. He ran some cracking races earlier in the year, finishing 3rd to Ranch Hand on two separate occasions, which has worked out to be decent form. That horse has since ran some nice races in Group and Listed races, and though he hasn't won, he hasn't been disgraced against good horses. Before that, Lucky Deal beat Royal Ascot winner, Amtiyaz at Kempton, which was off a 2lb lower mark, so he is clearly capable of running nice races off this mark. Unfortunately, he is running off 100, despite being rated 98, as the weights for the race came out before his rated was dropped.
He has ran at this track once before, which resulted in a win over Cosmelli who runs in the consolation race earlier in the card, but he is a horse who runs this track extremely well, so that was a good yardstick to beat. I think this track will suit him well, as he can be a lazy type, but he is a strong stayer, which is why a galloping track with the long straight should help him get into top gear, and hopefully have a late run of things. This race is clearly very competitive, but with bookies offering extra places, I think he could sneak into a place.
Advised: Each Way (William Hill 6 places)