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The drift of yesterday's selection Whitehotchillifili told the story, as she got smoked by the winner. The winner did it extremely easy, and looked like a nice Mare. Kissesforkatie has appealed like a horse to follow in the past, but she's been disappointing this season in parts, but it all clicked yesterday.
Carrying a penalty in a Novices' Hurdle race isn't ideal, and is often a tough task to do, unless you're backing a horse who is above average. I believe FORTUNEDEFORTUNATA is an above average sort for the David Bridgwater team, and think he is good odds against the Skelton odds-on favourite who is yet to win a race after four runs.
Boombawn, the favourite, has some decent pieces of form, but he was a beaten favourite at Doncaster earlier this month at odds of 4/5F. The winner at Doncaster was carrying a penalty, and beat him convincingly that day, so it shows this horse is vulnerable in this company, despite getting the weight from arguably his main rival. He has finished 3rd in a Newbury race which was won by Jonbon. He was beaten by 9L, but the second has franked the form, but I think he could be flattered with the margins, like the fourth, who has also not won a novice race since, being beat 2x.
In comparison, the selection won on debut, which came as a surprise to the market, as he won by 3.25L at odds of 25/1. He kept on strongly that day, and the form looks good enough to suggest he can defy a penalty. The 2nd has since won a race which has won produced winners from the 2nd and 3rd. The 6th from his debut run at Ludlow has since won over fences, producing an RPR in the high 120s, and the 5th has ran well since. The race which he won has previously been won by some above average sorts including Smarty Wild (2019), who has since become a mid 130s rated horse, and Garry Clermont (2020) who is currently rated 142 over hurdles, so there is a strong chance that this lad could follow in their footsteps. At the odds, he is worth taking on the favourite.