Racing tips

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I thought Fantastic Moon was given a very poor ride. He gave the Godolphin horse an easy lead and allowed it to turn into a sprint, which saw the leader nick a 3L lead when they turned for home. As for Remarquee, I think she has to drop down to 7f as she came there with every chance when making her challenge but she didn't seem to stay out the final furlong, so a drop in trip looks needed.

Ayr 4:15 – Knockbrex 10/3 (1pt Bet365)

I put up Knockbrex on his last start at Newmarket in the race which the Johnston stable has farmed over recent years and his stablemate ended up winning and Knockbrex was disappointing, though that was a poor run I am keeping the faith and I do think he is better than what he shown in the last two runs.

Before his to 0's next to his form line he was 4th at York over 12f which was over a trip too far for him and he was going very well with 2f left to run and had many in behind off the bridle but he didn't quite see the trip out. The time before that he was 2nd to Gregory who is one of the favourites for the St Leger later this year, so that isn't a bad effort and then the time before that he won on soft ground beating Perfuse in taking fashion. That horse has since gone on to finish 5th in a Royal Ascot handicap, recording an RPR of 96 and is now rated 94. That race suited Knockbrex as it was a small field and he managed to get an easy lead, which looks on the cards today, but also soft ground seemed to have suited him as well. That was his first attempt on that surface and he was a run-away winner, and he seems to have struggled on much faster ground since, so the return to a slower surface looks to be a positive. He is by Ulysses who has been producing some good slow ground horses and he is out of a Pivotal Dam, with Pivotal being well known for horses running well on ground with cut in it.

I think you've got to take on the short-priced favourite who has been impressive in his recent wins, but he hasn't beaten much. He looks like a strong stayer at this trip and will need further in time, so a small field where Joe Fanning should hopefully get an uncontested lead, might not suit the Archie Watson runner.

Newton Abbot 4:30 – Caius Marcius 7/1 (0.5pt EW WilliamHill)

Seeing a Nicky Richards horse at Newton Abbot is a rare occurrence, so it almost seems like a tip in itself with Caius Macius making the 11 hour round trip (700 miles) down to Newton Abbot from the Penrith base situated in the North Lake District.

Brian Hughes takes the ride, going down to Newton Abbot for the one ride, which gives positive vibes for his chances of winning as it's a long way to travel to come away empty-handed, even in the quiet summer jumps season. Nicky is 2/3 when sending his horses down to Newton Abbot, both of those wins came with Caius Marcius when he won over fences when rated in 140s, he is now rated 124 over hurdles as he is in the twilight of his career aged 12, but he was having a bit of an Indian summer last year when he bagged two wins towards the back end of the year and then he managed to win on his seasonal reappearance at Perth this year before running over 3m 1f which saw him finish 3rd, but that wasn't a bad effort as the runner-up went on to win on their next start.

He is on a tough mark at this stage of his career, but I definitely think he's on a winnable mark, and this race does appear to be competitive on paper with the horses at the bottom of the weights arriving with wins next to their name, but I think he has the class to get involved and be placed at the very least.

Horse Racing Tips
Knockbrex
Ayr - 4:15 pm

10/3 @ Bet365

Caius Marcius
Newton Abbot - 4:30 pm

7/1 @ William Hill

48 Comments
  1. double carpet 9 months ago

    Hi All,
    I’ll put up some stats for Galway that may help if your having a flutter aswell as my selections for day 1.
    But first I’m very proud to announce that I became a Grandad today and I’m over the moon.
    Both Mother and Daughter are doing great.

    Anyway onto Galway

    Draw Bias

    5-7 1/2f
    Low 43%
    Middle 20%
    High 37%

    Mile to 11 1/2f
    Low 38%
    Middle 25%
    High 36%

    Middle to long distances
    Low 40%
    Middle 23%
    High 37%

    I would also point out that on short distances (5-6f) Low draws are pretty much vital. It’s when races are over slightly further 7-71/2f) that high numbers fair better.

    Some jockey and trainer stats

    R.P. Cleary has had 97 rides at Galway and has yet to have a single winner

    Patrick Mullins is 7-12 when racing over 2m. But it’s not all from bumpers as he’s got a 100% record in the Galway Hurdle having won the race 3 times from as many rides and that race is over 2m.

    Emmett Mullins is 5-9 in bumpers at Galway

    Willie Mullins is 6-12 in beginner Chases

    Noel Meade is 6-14 with 6yr olds

    Day 1 selections

    5.10 Mystical Power evs

    Son of Annie Power makes his Hurdle debut and really shouldn’t have too much trouble in beating this field. Mullins has won 5 of the last 9 runnings too.

    5.40 Darkened 7/1 ew 6 places

    Difficult race to work out so just interest stakes but Darkened won it last year and runs off the same mark today. Trainer has won 2 of the last 3.

    6.10 No Bet

    I would say Mythology is the one to beat based on his 2nd lto to another AOB horse that came with a high reputation. However Paddy Twomey is 5-11 for the past 14 days and his runner warrants respect.

    6.40 Scaramanga 16/1 ew 4 places (AP)

    Very strange market for this race. My horse went as low as 7’s at one stage but is now back out to 16’s and there have been some big moves for others notably Cougar in the JP colours and when money comes for a JP horse it’s usually significant. The fav has an excellent record at Galway having never been out of the first 2 in 5 runnings and this will have been the plan for him but at 3/1 hes just too short.
    I went for Scaramanga as the Owner, Trainer and jockey combo won the race in 2019. He went to the USA and won a Grade 1 back in May. He’s rated 147 over hurdles so 89 on the flat must give him a decent chance and Mullins has a very good recent record in the race winning 4 of the last 6 and not always with the fancied runner.

    7.15 Rathbranchurch 10/1 ew / Tooprofitable 40/1 ew both 4 places

    Gone for 2 in this but again interest stakes. Rathbranchurch was a beaten fav lto and has been dropped a pound for that……plot ??
    Hmm maybe, as the trainer has won 2 of the last 4 runnings and money has come for him. Drawn in 4 is also a positive.
    Tooprofitable is Speculative but he’s 3lbs lower than when winning on heavy ground beating Run Ran Run who is now rated 85 having won twice since and with yet more rain expected the ground should be ideal.

    7.50
    No strong selection in this race but depending on how things go I might chance Expelliramus who makes his h’cap debut for JOB and once again in the JP colours.

    8.20 Arctic Gale 3/1

    Trainer / Jockey won the race last year and I’ve already pointed out Emmett Mullins record in bumpers so will chance him

    BOL

    19
  2. Gateacre Pete 9 months ago

    Congratulations DC or should I say, Grandad 👏

    8
    • double carpet 9 months ago

      Cheers pete

      2
  3. Gateacre Pete 9 months ago

    Galway tomorrow. 7.15
    It’s good- soft at the moment, but looking at the forecast for the area, there’s rain tonight and tomorrow so I guessing it’s gonna be at least soft, if not heavy
    I fancy 2 in this at a price
    Bright Dick @ 50s ew. Ran wide on the bend last start but still managed to finish 7th, but I’m not sure about the ground if it’s soft/heavy, plus it’s 1st reserve, so nothing lost if it doesn’t get in.
    The other is Tooprofitable @ 40s
    This one’s won on heavy so worth an ew
    GL

    • Gateacre Pete 9 months ago

      Sorry DC. I didn’t notice you’d picked Tooprofitable as well.
      GL

      1
  4. double carpet 9 months ago

    No worries ……..Great minds !!!

    1
    • Gateacre Pete 9 months ago

      👍

  5. elvis parsley 9 months ago

    DC
    Congratulations grandad 👴👍.
    Can picture you now with your pipe and dodgy slippers sifting through the Galway form 🤣.

    Don’t know how you are feeling as I have no children but you are blessed to have them and I’m sure they will do you proud.

    Ainglean beaga. Biodh beannachdan uile ar Tighearna beantainn ri do bheatha an-diugh 🇮🇪

    2
    • double carpet 9 months ago

      Thanks Elvis and very impressive Gaelic !!
      níl mé in ann ceann an linbh a fhliuchadh go fóill ach déanfaidh sé suas é nuair is féidir liom faoi dheireadh.

      1
    • elvis parsley 9 months ago

      🍼🍻👍

  6. recoba 9 months ago

    Still 3 to run from last night i did say it’s a late one, I’ll not make them ,

    USA 🇺🇸 Night cap r small play..

    Louisiana Downs. -R5…Hamazing 9/1 Ew **
    Or 7/1 Bet365 extra and 3 places

    Last nights in running multiple effort here,missed one.

    Saratoga R8…Kumanata 7/2 ****
    (real unlucky not to get winning start. ✖️.
    Monmouth -R10 …Sugar Spin 11/8 ☑️
    Del Mar -R7…Cousin Ritchie 7/1 ***
    Race 8…Balanikhov. 7/1 ***
    R/Fc with Golden Phoinex *
    R10….Piroli 9/ 4

    Onwards…

    • recoba 9 months ago

      Well Race 9 at Del Mar forecast paid handsomely but been nice Balinkhov finished 1st.
      Few small bets on next 2…

      Race 10 Combo tricast. 1-8-3
      R11 Combo tricast 8-5-3. Catch these races in the afternoon probably 😉

  7. recoba 9 months ago

    Del Mar -R6…Jasmine Chieftain 12:1 Ew. **+
    Bit close to the off ??
    Anyway Skybet go 4 places or get Ew extra. with horse that looks well overpriced in pi$$ race!

  8. elvis parsley 9 months ago

    Donnie azzoff 2-10 newton abbot
    4-1 win
    13-8 top 2 finish SKYBET…..
    20-80 stake

    1
    • elvis parsley 9 months ago

      2nd 😁
      Paid me 2-1 this morning thanks to the SP drift 🏇

      1
  9. Gateacre Pete 9 months ago

    Bloomin Robbery 3.05 Ayr ew @ 33s top 3
    30s top 4 ew extra
    So that’s no brainer
    GL

  10. JGWulvo 9 months ago

    Morning all, 2 bets for me today:

    14:10 Songo
    14:30 Red Zone Hero
    18:57 Molaqab
    TREBLE 4/1

    15:05 See My Baby Jive
    17:52 Bailar Contigo
    18:40 Teed Up
    20:32 Morning Colours
    TREBLES + 4FOLD 72/1

    Best of luck today all – hopefully a good start to the week for us :)

    4
    • JGWulvo 9 months ago

      Adding a single:

      19:07 Four Adaay 2/1

      BOL :)

    • JGWulvo 9 months ago

      4/1 Treble lands! Other 2 bets unfortunately losers, well done today everyone!

      6
  11. postman 9 months ago

    💥🥂💥Congratulations to Grandad DC. 💥🥂💥

    4:15 Ayr – Chriszoff ***NAP***
    6:40 Galway – Zinc White *each way punt*
    8:20 Galway – Arctic Gale **NB**

    B’ Lucky 😉

    3
    • double carpet 9 months ago

      Cheers posty 👍

      1
  12. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    looks like we will be looking for the mud larks by tomorrow

    3
  13. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    my brother John 2.10 ew well done all winners yesterday

  14. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    call of the loop 2.45

    2
  15. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    milliethemollie 2.30 ew

  16. spurs55 9 months ago

    paddy power giving you a fiver for goodwood tomorrow

    🤑🤑🤑

    3
  17. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    eritage 4.30 ew well done all winners today

  18. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    marksetgo 5.10 was looking at this horse was hampered and didn’t get beaten by far so might be a bit overpriced today

  19. spurs55 9 months ago

    One Touch @ 11/1SP

    Win – 16.30 Newton Abbot – Paying 4 Places instead of 3

    1
    • spurs55 9 months ago

      Lucky skybet paid 4 places 😇

      4
  20. dazzman1979 9 months ago

    ⚰️⚰️⚰️

  21. Super Wilf 9 months ago

    Well done Rizz CM gets up to make the long trip worthwhile and take it on the line

    💥

    6
  22. postman 9 months ago

    🤑 Rizz does the Bizz 🤑

    2
  23. elvis parsley 9 months ago

    Cougar 6-40 Galway
    16-1 ew extra 6 places

    Lovejoy 7-15 Galway
    20-1 ew extra 8 places

    Voice of reason 7-50 Galway
    2-1 top 3 finish BETFRED NAP 🏇
    and
    6-1 ew 4 places

    Hypersonic missile 8-20 Galway
    20-1 ew extra 7 places.

    1
  24. elvis parsley 9 months ago

    Nice pick rizzo with the old warrior caius Marcius 🏇🏇

    3
  25. spurs55 9 months ago

    hopefully Rachel can start the galway meeting

    Your Honor @ 10/1SP

    Win – 17.10 Galway

  26. double carpet 9 months ago

    Great shout Rizzle 👏

    Mystical Power wins easy…….can’t believe the SP.Very generous bookies !!!

    4
    • Stu085 9 months ago

      Excellent stuff DC. In play layers had their fingers burnt there.

      1
  27. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    cullaghs star 5.40 ew

  28. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    bid for chester 6.10 ew almuhit 6.40 ew rumbled again 7.15 ew ikigai star 7.50 ew champagne girl 8.20 ew well done all winners today

  29. azzthewigan 9 months ago

    well done rizzel cheers

    2
  30. Stu085 9 months ago

    Horse I’ve been waiting for is out tomorrow, making its chase debut, My Gift To You at Worcester in the novices chase. Everything looks perfect for it. Was a non runner last week when I’d backed it but taken out for the soft ground. Looked through the runners in depth today. If he jumps round he wins, should be way shorter so there’s value there.
    Weather forecast is all good, unfortunately its 4/5 best price. Hasn’t stopped me from having a good bet on though. Hardly a tip at those odds but I’ll write a few words in the morning incase anyone else likes it. Well done everyone so far today

    5
  31. lossie jim 9 months ago

    A good day for me thanks to this site, only two bets, Caius Marcius @ 8/1 and Mystical Power at 6/4.👏👏👏👏

    5
  32. spurs55 9 months ago

    Lily in the jungle

    Next race 🙏

    2
  33. recoba 9 months ago

    Some great shouts above ⬆️ top stuff ‘dudes’

    JGWulvo I had your treble on,well your post was the inspiration along with DC making my mind up on Mythology and then Oor resident Rizzle “chips in”? 😉
    Azz and Elvis as per usual can sniff out something that ain’t horse $hite so all in all SMALL stakes and MAX profit for a Monday! 👏

    Top stuff ✅

    🇺🇸

    Finger Lakes -R5…R/Fc 6-3 **
    Thistledown -R8…Galactic 6/5 ***+

    Skybet double with No:6 at Funger Lakes pays 3.8/1 but not as confident in the favourite as the markets seem to be?

    Prairie Meadows -R8 …Beverly Park 7/4 ****
    Late late show here! be back with explanation

    GL

    • recoba 9 months ago

      No matter time flys typing etc
      Finger Lakes a no go!’ 🙏

  34. recoba 9 months ago

    USA 🇺🇸

    Thistledown -R7…Calvaletta 6/1 William Hill ***. 6/4 a place.

    • recoba 9 months ago

      Place it was ⬆️ 🙄

      Fort Erie -R1….Is There A Forest 4/5 **** Skybet.
      Double with Galctica be a play?

      Well done again to the winners today

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