Racing tips: 700 mile round trip for Caius Marcius make him dangerous to underestimate

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I thought Fantastic Moon was given a very poor ride. He gave the Godolphin horse an easy lead and allowed it to turn into a sprint, which saw the leader nick a 3L lead when they turned for home. As for Remarquee, I think she has to drop down to 7f as she came there with every chance when making her challenge but she didn't seem to stay out the final furlong, so a drop in trip looks needed.

Ayr 4:15 – Knockbrex 10/3 (1pt Bet365)

I put up Knockbrex on his last start at Newmarket in the race which the Johnston stable has farmed over recent years and his stablemate ended up winning and Knockbrex was disappointing, though that was a poor run I am keeping the faith and I do think he is better than what he shown in the last two runs.

Before his to 0's next to his form line he was 4th at York over 12f which was over a trip too far for him and he was going very well with 2f left to run and had many in behind off the bridle but he didn't quite see the trip out. The time before that he was 2nd to Gregory who is one of the favourites for the St Leger later this year, so that isn't a bad effort and then the time before that he won on soft ground beating Perfuse in taking fashion. That horse has since gone on to finish 5th in a Royal Ascot handicap, recording an RPR of 96 and is now rated 94. That race suited Knockbrex as it was a small field and he managed to get an easy lead, which looks on the cards today, but also soft ground seemed to have suited him as well. That was his first attempt on that surface and he was a run-away winner, and he seems to have struggled on much faster ground since, so the return to a slower surface looks to be a positive. He is by Ulysses who has been producing some good slow ground horses and he is out of a Pivotal Dam, with Pivotal being well known for horses running well on ground with cut in it.

I think you've got to take on the short-priced favourite who has been impressive in his recent wins, but he hasn't beaten much. He looks like a strong stayer at this trip and will need further in time, so a small field where Joe Fanning should hopefully get an uncontested lead, might not suit the Archie Watson runner.

Newton Abbot 4:30 – Caius Marcius 7/1 (0.5pt EW WilliamHill)

Seeing a Nicky Richards horse at Newton Abbot is a rare occurrence, so it almost seems like a tip in itself with Caius Macius making the 11 hour round trip (700 miles) down to Newton Abbot from the Penrith base situated in the North Lake District.

Brian Hughes takes the ride, going down to Newton Abbot for the one ride, which gives positive vibes for his chances of winning as it's a long way to travel to come away empty-handed, even in the quiet summer jumps season. Nicky is 2/3 when sending his horses down to Newton Abbot, both of those wins came with Caius Marcius when he won over fences when rated in 140s, he is now rated 124 over hurdles as he is in the twilight of his career aged 12, but he was having a bit of an Indian summer last year when he bagged two wins towards the back end of the year and then he managed to win on his seasonal reappearance at Perth this year before running over 3m 1f which saw him finish 3rd, but that wasn't a bad effort as the runner-up went on to win on their next start.

He is on a tough mark at this stage of his career, but I definitely think he's on a winnable mark, and this race does appear to be competitive on paper with the horses at the bottom of the weights arriving with wins next to their name, but I think he has the class to get involved and be placed at the very least.

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