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Brighton is the destination for both of Tuesday's selections. Nothing special in terms of the prices, but their chances are clear as day.
The penalty in which TELLMEYOURSTORY carries isn't ideal, but she is a horse who in on the roll, and Mark Johnston looks to have found her a nice race to land the hat-trick.
Mark Johnston has Tellmeyourstory turned out quickly after landing the spoils three days ago at Carlisle. She must've come out of that race well, otherwise he wouldn't be risking her health, especially travelling to Brighton from his Yorkshire base.
The forecast rain shouldn't be an issue despite the fact she's not raced on anything slower than good. The ground will probably end up being Good-To-Soft with soft in places, or something similar, but her pedigree suggests she should be able to handle those conditions, no problem. Her full brother handles the slow ground, which is a positive, but also he won at Brighton, so you'd like to hope that she'll handle this track, which isn't like your conventional track.
This race does appear to be weaker than the one she contested three days ago, so the penalty she carries shouldn't be enough to stop the follow up. I think if there's a horse to be worried about, it is Queen Sarabi who will carrying a featherweight 7st 9lbs when you take Mollie Phillips' 7lb claim into consideration. She has the strongest form of any other horse in the race, and combined with the low weight, she should be the one we need to be wary about.
Tellmeyourstory races against the girls again, after beating the boys on her most recent run. I'd say that it is a big bonus, as it is always difficult for the girls to beat the lads in handicap company, as they don't get any weight for sex allowances, meaning they're running off level weights if they're handicapped to the same mark. The fact she managed to beat the boys lto signals the good form she is in.
Franny Norton takes the ride, and he is 2 from 2 at Brighton when riding for Mark Johnston, when the horse has carried a penalty, which is a nice stat to have.
On paper, you'd probably see this race between three horses at the very maximum, and in theory you could probably reduce that number to two with Dawn View & JUNOESQUE being the main players. I'm opting with the latter, as I believe she'll handle the ground better than Dawn View, and that could be enough for Junoesque to get the win.
Like I mentioned previously, Brighton is expecting around 13mm of rain from 6pm Monday to the time of racing. Junoesque has form on soft ground, as shown in her most recent run where she finished a close second at this venue. She's in a rich vein of form recently, racking up three placed efforts and one win in her last five runs. She really enjoys racing at this track, with four of her eight wins coming at Brighton.
A mark of 54 is definitely within her reach, despite the fact she is 7yo. She has won off higher in the past, e.g. 65, 60, 57, 56 and 55 (2x).
Dawn View is the other form horse in this race, but from what we've seen of her on slower ground, she'll be praying that the rain doesn't arrive, as her form is very poor on a slow surface. Her recent form on quick ground is good, and she clearly likes Brighton, winning two times and finishing second in the last three runs, all coming at this track. She get's Stefano Cherchi's 5lb claim to assist her, but it would be a surprise if she miraculously enjoyed a slower surface.
Trainer John Gallagher is in good profit when having runners who are 4yo or older at Brighton (27 wins from 150 runners, 17% SR +54.55 to level stakes).
Jockey Darragh Keenan has a 20% SR when riding 4yo's or older at Brighton, equaling +14.33 profit to level stakes.