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Two winners on Sunday made it a decent day. Haute Estime won at 3/1 (adv. 7/2) with a 10p rule 4 and Ten Lengths Tom would easily at an SP of 7/2.
The other two runners yesterday finished second, both not really challenging the winners, but put in good runs. Destiny Is All, who was my NAP travelled very strongly through the race, but couldn't land a blow on the winner who led from start to finish and won that race for the third year in a row. I think he can win races over that trip, or just slightly shorter.
There are four jumps racecards to go through today, but nothing really stood out as a bet apart from this short-priced favourite in the opener at Plumpton.
We're one day away from the best racing of the entire year, so hopefully, today's selection can send us into the Cheltenham Festival with a winner!
Plumpton 1:50 – Ah Whisht 13/8 (2pt)
I say this a lot, but looking at this race it doesn't look great by any means. I thought Goodwin Racing would have a decent chance, but he probably got a tad lucky last time at Fontwell. The horses prominent in the market didn't turn up and the leader jumping the last hung to the right. He stayed on well that day but didn't look like a stayer at this trip when racing at Plumpton the time before last.
Hermes Du Gouet holds Goodwin Racing on collateral form but is another horse who doesn't quite stay this trip. He ran well last time out at Exeter over 2m, but on previous runs over 2m 4f he has looked a non-stayer, but he does handle the ground so I imagine he will be the main threat to my selection, AH WHISHT.
It's hard to quantify how good Tom Symonds' horse is based off her one run at Ffos Las, where she won by 13L. She travelled through that race like a good horse, and one who could rate better than this field of opposition today. She won her sole PTP race in Ireland and was then purchased for a large sum of £145,000 which is of notice for a smaller yard like Tom's. It's hard to say what the form is worth, but she easily dealt with the runner-up who is rated 112. It looked like she had a bit of pace about her, which should suit this track and she should be fine on the ground, considering she won on soft ground on her PTP run.
It gives me confidence that connections are happy to take on the boys, as she could've easily gone for another Mares' only race. By them doing this, she gets 7lbs weight from those who are carrying penalties, and I think she could be difficult to beat. The Venetia Williams horse will more than likely try and set the pace, and I expect my selection to be just behind, using her cruising speed before challenging around the final bend and putting the race to bed.
3:35? Plumpton – the street 7/1
2:05 Stratford- j’adore chas 12/1 e/w
Looking through the specials markets for Cheltenham and landed on Gaillard De Mesnil to record the biggest winning distance @20/1
Just thought that if you fancy a particular race for biggest distance you are probably thinking of a certain horse to win and Gaillard is 1/1 to win.
Will there be a Cheltenham festival weekly preview? cheers
oops sorry found is 😉
Where can I find the Cheltenham preview on here? 🤔
Yh I was hoping for a separate Cheltenham thread by now. Love reading every bodies tips and thoughts. Some of the knowledge shared is brilliant!
Also if anyone can help out, I notice DC mentioned another site he uses for stats etc but Ive trawled through the threads and cannot find it, if dc or anyone could help out that would be great.
As always I appreciate everyone’s tips and wish you all the best of luck for the festival!
Rizzel will add his tips to this post for Day 1 later today 👍
https://mrfixitstips.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/cheltenham-festival-day-1-best-bets-for-tuesday-at-the-festival/
Titchmh
It’s called Gaulstats
Enjoy
Afternoon all sticking with wolves
Tio mio 5.30 25-1
Lexington hero 6.00 9-1
She’s a rocket 6.30 16-1
Shaw park 7.00 14-1
Robeam 7.30 16-1
Chookie Dunedin 8.00 11-1
Peachy carnehan 8.30 11-1
Ew singles & ew super hienz ☘️☘️gl all
politicise 1.20 ew
extradaneryman 1.30 ew
grumpy rosie 1.40 ew well done all winners yesterday
Greenrock abbey 1-30 Stratford 15-8
Goodwin racing 1-50 plumpton 5-2.
who is that 2-25 plumpton 5-2.
Go steady 2-40 Stratford 2-1 top 2 finish
Beaufort west 3-35 plumpton 16-1 bet365 ew extra 3 places
Go steady top 2 is NAP 🏇
Go steady won 🤣.
Should have took the 11-2 SP….
Cheltenham tips
Supreme 2/1 Facile Vega the best horse in the race .Forget his last race .We all heard what Willie said about the ride Townend gave him .If he had of won that i think he would be around 5/4 for this .
Arkle Looking forward to this race .Should be a cracker and i think it will be between Jonbon anb El Fabiolo .Willie said his horse have improved a lot from last year and the way he won at the DRF sways it for me so E l Fabiolo 6/4
Ultima The brits do well in this ,8 year olds have a good record in this too .The Big Breakaway and Tea Clipper are the ones for me at ew prices .I think 9 of the last 11 winners have worn some sort of head gear blinkers x cheek pieces never a visor .
Champion Hurdle I hope State Man wins this but he is up against a good one in Constitution Hill but this will be his hardest race to date .No bet for me
Mares Hurdle I would love to see Honeysuckle win but for me i don’t think HDB horses are in great form ..I am going to back Love Envoi at 9/1 ew because i got a tip for her last year at 14/1. .S Doyle was very bullish about her saying the more rain for her the better. I think he said he actually bred this one .That’s what happened last year so i am hoping for very soft ground tomorrow .
Boodles . Bad i backed this one at 10/1 and its now as low as 13/2 now R Blackmore taking the ride on this. He was as big as 16/1 I don’t know anything about him only that T Mullins tipped it .
National Hunt only one horse in this for me Gaillard Du Mesnil 1/1 Banker Good Luck ☘️
Got tip for high defintion in the 1st at Cham 14/1. Also punt on strong leader at 40s. Is there no page for Cheltenham?
If high definition jumps the last in touch he could well win given his flat pedigree.
Problem is his jumping is suspect and will be put under serious pressure tomorrow and will he stay up the hill on soft to heavy going
If it was a flat course he would be my pick for sure and I like the horse so will have an ew dabble though I don’t think he will win outright
One I won’t be going near is facile Vega, his last run was awful behind a few of these where he made jumping errors, pulled hard and weakened before the last fence, Cheltenham isn’t the place to correct these errors.
Facile has won 2 hurdles at odds of 2-9 and 1-9 and when asked a question in hurdle race no 3 he was found wanting.
If he’s ironed out that last run he could win easily but a lot of questions need answering for betting purposes.
I’ll be on Il Etait Temps for the win as he seems to be on an upward curve with high definition to place
Supreme
Winner Marine Nationale
Horses Backed Marine Nationale , Facile Vega
Regardless who wins this race, it will end up being trendbuster as its such a mess, it could end up being another ‘Labaik’ Supreme.
FV was the first horse I backed way back when he was all the rage but I just can’t be confident after what happened lto. So I also backed MN and whilst his trainer seems very bullish about his chances, I’m not so mainly down to his lack of racing and Royal Bond winners don’t win Supremes.
But I’m going to leave it at that. Hopefully 1 of the 2 I’ve backed wins but it’s a truly rotten Supreme
Arkle
Winner Jonbon
Horses Backed Jonbon, El Fabiolo
This should be a cracker. Without doubt EF brings the best form to the table but it’s worth noting that this race will be 1 1/2F shorter and he was doing his best work at the end of that race at the DRF.
There are also 13 fences to jump and EF can throw in the odd clanger.
The shorter distance, more fences does bring DD into the equation and I don’t think he’s out of it but can see him being outbattled up the hill by one or two of the others.
Jonbon while he may not have been tested to the extent of the Irish horses, he is without doubt the best jumper in the field and I think that will prove to be the difference come the end of the race.
Ultima
Winner Fastorslow
Horses Backed Fastorslow, The Wolf 40/1
Yes I’ve picked an Irish horse in a race we just don’t win (not won since 2006) but I’m purely going along the lines that the trainer must feel this race is his best chance of winning as he was also entered in the plate.
Has just had the 2 runs this season both in grade 1’s and over inadequate trips (probably looking for the best mark possible) and comes here off 150. I wouldn’t say he’s well h’capped but he’s totally unexposed at the trip and the trainer when sending them over is usually there or thereabouts.
The Wolf was 2nd to my original selection Lord Accord giving 7lbs and if LA had been running there would have been a 14lb swing in his favour so just a small ew at the prices.
Champion Hurdle
Winner Constitution Hill
Horses Backed nothing left
I had backed CH ages ago but only in an accum which also had Allaho in it. That’s always the risk but happy to just sit back and watch the race unfold and hopefully we get to see a true great of the sport do his thing.
I do like the chances of I Like to Move it to finish ahead of Vauban though and may play that.
Mares
Winner Brandy Love
Horses Backed Brandy Love
This could end up the race of the week but is without doubt the race of the day.
Honeysuckle can win all she likes and I’m just not going for the sentiments but I wouldn’t be backing her with counterfeit as there are too many in this field on the rise whilst she’s on the decline.
Brandy Love would have needed her run lto and will come on for it. She’s also much better going left handed as she jumps to her right.
She also thrashed Love Envoi at fairyhouse last season and I think she’s going to take a lot of beating in this race.
Boodles
Winner unknown
Horses Backed Metamorpheus 25/1 ew
Letting this one run. More plots than an Agatha Christie novel so happy to see how my AP pick goes.
Paul Nolan has only ever had 2 runners in this race and has a win and a place to his name so you never know.
National Hunt Chase
Winner GDM
Horses Backed GDM, Chemical Energy
CE was the first horse I backed after his win at the track last Oct when beating Mahler Mission by half the track. Connections have backed him for this race at 66/1 and when you have The Codfather onboard you always have a chance.
But on overall form and ratings GDM should be winning this race without too much fuss.
BOL
Good stuff DC and Rizzle with the preview.
Taken this as a Canadian and singles on Tekao which at 4/1 be my biggest single. Already took Brandy Love Ew along with Chapeau De Soliel for ‘Champion Bumper’ on Wednesday which are my only 2 antepost bets.
El Fabilo 6/4
Into Overdrive 13/2
Marie’s Rock 5/2.
Tekao. 4/1
Gaillird De Mesnil EVS.
Be on something in the 1.30pm with Skybets £20 back as CASH if horse loses and at a nice 5/2 now probably just go Facile De Vega and forgive n forget his bet busting last run that still stings.
I hope he gets back to winning ways but far from easy ask and if it wasn’t cash back I’d skip him tbh
USA Today 🇺🇸
Mahoning Valley-R1..Fracing Nasty. 11/4/**
Philadelphia -R4…Baton 13/8./**** Trifecta 5-2-1
Will Rodgers Down -R8…Calibrate 6/5/****
Both Paddy Power
GL all 🫡
Baton wins well and Calibrate is well touted so hopefully lands too.
£1 Trixie at Turf Paradise for FUN as if stops? 😉
R3…Willy The Cobbler 9/4
R4…Betty’s Bar 7/2
R5…Tempted Mission 7/2
Quazeehorses with Skybet I can only think it’s down to net deposits over a certain period as that’s what it usually is BUT I know my mates got the same as he asked IF it was exactly as stated because it sounded to good.
It’s his only account but he’s far from a big deposits deluxe and I’ve a 250 a month cap which I very rarely hit that’s been on it for over 2 years?
🇺🇸
Go a single on Tempted Mission 7/2 /***
Both?
*All Paddy Power
1:30 il Etait temps 5/1
2-10 el fabilio
2:50 happy go lucky EW 12/1
5:30 1/1
Was on brandy love 4:10 but sod that now
Also sky only giving me £5 back if lose how yous getting £20 back grrrr
king of York 7.00 ew well done all winners today