THE Lincoln takes place on Saturday at Doncaster and is run over a straight mile.
With better horses running every year now it’s one of the most competitive handicaps you can get as the weights from top to bottom are so close. The last six winners' odds have been 12-1, 12-1, 20-1, 20-1, 25-1 and 16-1, also showing just how competitive it is.
So what do some trends say?
9-1 and over 5-14-81
8-9 to 9-0 4-12-95
8-8 and under 1-4-32
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to these stats because as I said the handicap is so compressed now and we could be looking at just 10lb between top and bottom this year. Last year top weight was 9-9 and bottom weight was 9-2.
4yo – 4-7-51
5yo – 3-8-58
6yo – 3-7-49
7yo – 0-3-30
8yo – 0-5-20
In fact the last time a horse older than six won this race was 1998 but when you see that horses aged 4 to 6 have made up three quarters of the runners it’s understandable.
MORANDO 4yo grey gelding
Breeding: Kendargent (FR) – Moranda (FR)
Trainer: Roger Varian
Owner: H H Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Thani
Lightly raced with three wins from five runs, last time out in October he was being pushed along from a long way out and was responding but found trouble. It’s one of those – would he or wouldn’t he have won? One thing for sure though is he would have been a lot closer. The long lay-off is a concern but he has bags of potential and will be running in better races later in the season.
Best odds 11-2
YUFTEN (GB) 6yo bay gelding
Breeding: Invincible Spirit (IRE) – Majestic Sakeena (IRE)
Trainer: Roger Charlton
Owner: Saleh Al Homaizi & Imad Al Sagar
This horse won the race Morando was hampered in. They ran off level weights that day so Morando is better at the weights this time but Yuften does have the benefit of a recent run. He will prefer good ground but is one of these unreliable horses as his performances are a mixed bag. On his day though he has a chance as he has won off a higher mark and there has been antepost money for him. He was third last time out in March but was only beat a nose & a short head and will have been a perfect warmup run.
Best odds 7-1
SACRED ACT (GB) 6yo bay gelding
Breeding: Oasis Dream (UK) – Stage Presence (IRE)
Trainer: John Gosden
Owner: Lady Bamford
Lightly raced 6yo with only five runs to his name, he is third favourite for this race but still needs about five horses to come out for him to get in. If he fails to get in then he will be in the consolation race the
Best odds 10-1
CHELSEA LAD (IRE) 4yo bay colt
Breeding: Clodovil (IRE) – Yali (IRE)
Trainer: Martyn Meade
Owner: Chelsea Thoroughbreds
Interesting horse, very interesting, two wins and a second from his three runs but he isn’t guaranteed a run as he needs about four to come out. This is the horse that I feel has the most improvement and I know connections like him. If he was to get in then he would look thrown in from a mark of 96. His last run was so impressive, the jockey had to sit and suffer for a long time and late on was trying to go for a gap or maybe trying to make a gap and the horse stumbled twice but Fergus Sweeney regathered him to get up in what was a cosy win in the end. If getting in he has a massive chance.
Best odds 14-1
EDDYSTONE ROCK (IRE) 5yo chestnut gelding
Breeding: Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) – Bayberry (UAE)
Trainer: J R Best
Owner: Curtis, Malt & Williams
Just back from a stint in St Moritz after two runs on ground that says Frozen, I have been wanting to go there to watch the racing in the snow, some say it’s dangerous but until I see for myself I don’t actually know. It will take some adjusting coming back to race here but I have known owners in the past who have taken horses over there and they have said it improves the horse. On debut for John Best he came third at Lingfield, it was a decent run but he would need to improve. He was then beaten quite a bit in both races in Switzerland, I know Johnny Murtagh liked this horse and although I couldn’t totally rule him out I just feel there are others with better chances.
Best odds 25-1
BRAVERY (IRE) 4yo bay colt
Breeding: Galileo (IRE) – Lady Icarus (GB)
Trainer: David O’Meara
Owner: Sprint Thoroughbred Racing
This is another horse I like, fourth in last year's Irish 2000 Guineas behind Awtaad, Galileo Gold and Blue De Vega but finished in front of horses like Shogun, Air Vice Marshal and Air Force Blue off level weights. This is by far the best form although his form since is not at that level, first run for David O’Meara who I think can rejuvenate this horse as sometimes all that’s needed is a change of scenery. His recent form is good enough but not been on a racetrack since October is a worry, this is a good buy for the owners and I like his chances but not as much as the two I have selected below.
Best odds 20-1
I am struggling here as I have it down to two but neither are in yet.
SACRED ACT 10-1
CHELSEA LAD 14-1
Remember if you don’t want to lose your stake, only bet if NRNB “non runner no bet”
If any stats are wrong please feel free to tell me.
Note: Sacred Act and Chelsea Lad are non-runners.
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