MARCH 2: RACING TIPS AND CHAT

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OK, take a deep breath. Milesey managed to extract steam from his keyboard with an essay on today's tips.

So scan his thoughts, pick out the best and don't have a rant at that man if he doesn't produce more winners than you expected. Here goes:

MEYDAN – SATURDAY CARNIIVAL

It’s been well documented Godolphin haven’t always enjoyed the greatest of success with their Australian imports but recent evidence suggests that tide is turning and Free Wheeling looks to have sound claims in the 3.25. He was a Group 2 winner in 2011 for Peter Snowden, supplementing that with a pair of listed wins last year and his debut for Saeed bin Suroor firmly suggests he is capable of defying his current mark of 108.

He was set loads to do behind Rerouted in a race where few landed a blow (Van Ellis almost stole it from the front) but finished off strongly to get to within two and a quarter lengths of the winner and can be expected to reverse form with that one given the draw is far more in his favour this time. Kieren Fallon takes over which can only boost his claims (Fallon rides Meydan better than most in my opinion) and it will be disappointing if he doesn’t go close.

It’s a slight concern to see Musir backing up so quickly after his reappearance last week but it was a run full of promise and he looks to have been found a good opportunity in the Zabeel Mile at 5.10. He did well here last year, winning the first round of the Maktoum Challenge and the Al Rashidiya, his form tailing off to a degree subsequently but he returned from a failed spell at stud with a performance that suggests all his ability remains intact.

He actually looked the likely winner when quickening into contention over 1f out but fitness was clearly an issue (as is the case with so many from the yard returning from a break) and he tired into fourth behind Mushreq. The presence of Fulbright and the impressive Trade Storm should ensure he is a reasonable price but Musir has the class edge and has plenty in his favour today.

Royal Empire could easily be a short price in the 5.45 but I make no apologies for selecting him as he really does look to have outstanding claims of getting his head back in front. He beat Kassiano on his reappearance before having to settle for second behind Mushreq and Kassiano on his next two outings, form that is undeniably strong with Mushreq winning a Group 2 last week and Kassiano progressing again since then. He is already proven over this course and distance and probably won’t even need to improve to take this.

Back Free Wheeling 5.2
Back Musir 3.1
Back Royal Empire 3.4

ZABEEL MILE 5.10 – MEYDAN

Musir won first two starts here last year, namely the first round of the Maktoum Challenge and Al Rashidiya. Failed at stud since then but promised plenty when fourth last week and the one to beat.

Mustaheel won his first three starts in France last year, including a five-runner listed race. Found out in better events subsequently and has struggled in handicap company this season so opposable in this. Trade Storm ran in some competitive handicaps last year, winning at York in August. Most impressive turn of foot when beating Anaerobio last time and while this is a step up in grade, dangerous to rule out.

Fulbright thrived for Mark Johnston in 2012, winning six times, including a Group 2 at Newmarket on final outing. Good placed efforts both outings this campaign and claims again despite penalty.

Derbaas is a smart performer and has come back as good as ever this season, winning twice at Abu Dhabi. Has found things tougher in Carnival events the last twice and looks vulnerable once more.

Royal Ridge is a three-time winner in South Africa, including a minor event over 1m. Has gradually come to himself in Dubai this year, second at Jebel Ali before beating Producer last time and not out of this.

Don’t Call Me won two competitive handicaps last year and as good as ever at Meydan this season, shaping well all four starts in some strong races. Another good run when fifth to Mushreq last week and frame claims.

Le Drakkar ended losing run that stretched back to 2008 when getting the better of Tamaathul here in January. Far from disgraced in better event subsequently but likely to come up short again.

VERDICT: Musir is backing up rather quickly after his reappearance but did shape well last week when fourth to Mushreq and should be too good for these. Trade Storm was most impressive when winning in handicap company last time and looks the main danger with Fulbright who is another to consider despite having to give weight away all round. BACK MUSIR TO WIN.

NEWBURY 3.50 – GREATWOOD GOLD CUP

Big Fella Thanks landed this race (for Paul Nicholls) in 2010. Third in Becher Chase in December before getting back on scoresheet in 21f handicap at Wincanton following month, though 9lb higher now.

Ballabriggs won the Grand National in 2011, was sixth in last year’s renewal and most likely being brought along with that race in mind once more, looking to need both outings this term. Probably best watched again.

Pacha du Polder took well to chasing last season, winning three of five starts starts, and back at that level when second in 3m listed event at Sandown in December, but he’s been pulled up in two other outings this term.

The Knoxs has been lightly raced but is smart, winning handicaps over hurdles and fences (in tongue tie) last term. Upsides when falling last over C&D in November and looks top yard’s main hope on riding arrangements.

Pepite Rose is better over fences than hurdles, winning four on the bounce early last year. Good third at Ascot (17f) on return, but ran poorly there next time and needs to bounce back after over three months off.

Mahogany Blaze is a smart chaser at his best. Not won since April 2008 but best effort for good while when going down narrowly over C&D in November, though typically followed that with poor run at Chepstow five weeks later.

Tony Star is a keen-going sort who shaped well when fourth in Wincanton Grade 2 on chase debut and back on track after lesser effort when runner-up at Huntingdon last month, though has stiff-looking mark here.

Micheal Flips did well over fences last term, winning twice over 19f. Attitude doubts creeping in now, though, and while his fourth in a jumpers’ bumper last time was a fair effort, he remains one to be wary of.

Midnight Sail is a reliable sort who found only one too good on six occasions either side of Fontwell (2¾m) win in April and got deserved success at Kempton (2½m) last week, though career-high mark makes life tougher now.

Mr Gardner finished third in 2011 Scilly Isles at Sandown for Nicky Henderson but his fourth behind Big Fella Thanks at Wincanton on first start for 22 months leaves him with plenty to find from this mark.

Saved By John is a winning hurdler who made successful chasing debut at Uttoxeter (2½m) in June and has returned from a break in good form, following Chepstow second with success at Wincanton (2m) in January. Respected.

Bahrain Storm was a smart hurdler on his day and transferred some of that ability to fences in 2011, winning twice. Beaten long way out in cross-country event in November, though, and below par on Flat last month.

Garynella was a useful hurdler in France, winning listed event at Enghien in April 2011. Scored over fences at Nantes in June (sold for €70,000 afterwards) and shaped well on first start for this yard in December.

VERDICT: The Knoxs goes well fresh and is likely to make a bold bid to give Paul Nicholls his sixth success in this race since 2006, but he may have to play second fiddle to Garynella, who showed up well for a long way when third on his UK debut at Cheltenham in December and could prove very well treated off this mark.cBACK GARYNELLA 6.8 TO WIN

Newbury 3.15
SPORTING BOY 6.8

Has to overcome a 14lb rise if it’s going to get the treble today but after its last run out when was eased down and won by eight lengths, this horse has plenty left in it, and should defy the weight rise today.

Kelso 3.40
EDUARD 2.4

Absolutely bolted up on its last run out and looked that day a very impressive horse with a great future ahead of it, I expect it today to carry on where it left off last time out. Easily the best form and is on a nice mark. BRICK RED is another class horse in this field, tried to run from the front last time out and couldn’t hold on finishing second.

Kelso 4.15
HARRY TOPPER 3.6

Going for the four-timer today will take all the beating in this race, BOLD SIR BRIAN could get close but after last time outs heavy fall I feel this would have effected this horse and don’t see it bouncing back with the win today. So it’s the progressive HARRY TOPPER for me.

Doncaster 3.30
AIM TO PROSPER 3.8

I think this horse has done enough in my eyes to suggest this step up to 3m today won’t be a problem for it, it’s on handicap debut and off a mark of 124, RUBY WALSH on board for Paul Nicholls. I couldn’t see past this one, wanted to leave it out, so if that’s what you want to do then that's fair game. I also fancied THEMILANHORSE 1.15 Doncaster, Walsh on board again for Nicholls but don’t want to push my luck too much today with too many Ruby rides. I feel pretty safe with this one and from what I have seen will be fine with the trip.

Lingfield 5.10
GABRIAL THE DUKE 3.2

Won easy last time out and today goes for the treble, as its last victory was in an apprentice handicap it escapes any penalty for that race.

Doncaster 1.45
MA FILLEULE 1.56 (nap)

Well in front of all the other runners here, even half the same run today as last time out would be good enough in this field. Won a Grade 2 contest last time out with a bit in hand, AP on board today.

LUCKY 15

Newbury 3.15
SPORTING BOY

Kelso 3.40
EDUARD

Kelso 4.15
HARRY TOPPER

Lingfield 5.10
GABRIAL THE DUKE

MEYDAN PATENT/TRIXIE

Free Wheeling 5.2

Musir 3.1

Royal Empire 3.4

For anyone wanting to do multiples on Betfair

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Good luck to everyone today.

Milesey

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