It was great to start the day with another winner yesterday and even better to get paid out at 22-1 after a drift before the race.
Here's my thoughts for Thursday at Glorious Goodwood.
1.10 Goodwood – Mirabeau En Provence Handicap
Quite an open looking race to start day three of the Goodwood festival, but I am going to side with BAL MAL, who has been on a progressive upward curve since the start of 2020.
At least 5 or 6 of the horses in this race have close form with each other, and it is quite hard to weigh up who will come out best at these weights and with these race conditions, so I have opted to go for the improver.
Bal Mal will need to take a step up again to land this prize, but it is not out of the equation. Celsius who won this race last year, had a very similar profile to Bal Mal. He started last season as a 58 rated, won three races before eventually winning this race off a mark of 79. Bal Mal started 2020 off a mark of 51, and has since won five times, and is now rated 76. Tomorrow has a 6lb penalty, but John Quinn has opted for useful 5lb claimer, George Rooke to take the ride, which means he races off 8-1.
This is not a race I would be very confident in, so I would play small stakes on this one. It will not surprise me if he drifts overnight before a late money move before the off. If he does go 4/1 or above, I would advise EW (currently 7/2 – 10/3).
2.15 Goodwood – Qatar Richmond Stakes
This is another race which does not strike to me to be much of a betting race, but I am going to chance SUPREMACY to take the step up in grade in his stride.
Sure enough Yazaman is a short priced favourite, and he could easily romp home tomorrow. He is priced up at 2/1 or slightly shorter, and that could look to be quite big odds come this time tomorrow, but I would like to chance my arm on an improver.
Supremacy ran okay on debut at Windsor, where he was beaten into 6th behind Twaasol. On that day he was well supported into 7/2 second favourite, so the yard must have felt he was showing good signs at home. The form of that race has worked out decently enough, with Twaasol winning a nice race at Epsom, but was then unsuited by the quick ground at Ascot. Zamaani who finished second, has since won a Novice by 4.5 lengths.
Supremacy then romped home on his second run, again at Windsor, winning by 3.75 lengths. Fools Rush In was second that day, and he has since won. Back in third was Collinsbay, and he finished 2nd at Ascot on the weekend.
This race was won by Clive Cox and Golden Horde, prior to that race, in recent years he only sent Konchek to this race, who finished fourth. So, unless he thinks they have a good chance of running well, he will not run them in this race, which gives me confidence that he thinks this is a nice horse.
Also, I cannot rate the Coventry Stakes form line which includes Lauded, Admiral Nelson & Qaader. If one of them comes out and wins this, then fair play.
3.15 Goodwood – Qatar Nassau Stakes
FANCY BLUE is the one to side with in the Qatar Nassau Stakes. I was gutted to see her win in France, as I did not back her, after thinking long and hard about doing so. Either way, I think that form is probably good enough for her to be taking a leading hand in this race. If I am honest, when researching this race, I did not rate the form lines of most of these horses.
Nazeef will need to prove she stays 10f, and even if she does, I think she will need to progress again to win this.
Queen Power does not look good enough, and her form from last year ties in with Lavender’s Blue, who also does not seem good enough.
Magic Wand is a terrific horse, and she travels around the world for Ballydoyle and often gets placed in some nice races, but if she were to win this race, it would be disappointing to say the least.
Deirdre is one horse I am wary about. She won this race last year and has since been mixing it with the boys. I think she will find it tough, as will all the older horses, to give away 9lbs to Fancy Blue.
Fancy Blue ran well in the 1000 Irish Guineas, and has since won a Group 1 in France, beating Alpine Star, who romped home in a Royal Ascot Group 1. Ryan Moore has opted to ride her, instead of Aidan O’Brien’s filly. I feel like she is probably my most confident pick on day 3.
I might even try a small tricast:
1st Fancy Blue
3rd Magic Wand
3.45 Goodwood – Gusbourne Nursery
WILLIAM BLIGH will have a tough task of winning a race of this nature, giving weight away to every horse in the race, and that includes 21lbs to some horses, but I think this lad could be a group horse in a handicap.
His form makes him the one to beat, as he pushed a subsequent Group 2 winner, Master Of The Seas all the way to the line. That horse is now officially the highest rated 2yo in the country (I think), so that form is monstrous.
Since then William Bligh has broken his maiden in a Novice at Haydock, demolishing his rivals by 3.25 lengths, and went off at 15/8 (that was printing money in hindsight).
Though he has the form in the book, this is not going to be an easy task for a 2yo to give this amount of weight away. Though I am confident he can do it, I would not be lumping on by any stretch of the imagination.
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