Five days of thrilling action the Qatar Goodwood Festival lie in wait this week. RizzelTips is back with his view on Day One.
1.10pm Goodwood – British European Breeders Fund EBF Fillies' Handicap
With the form of the Haggas stable, I would be siding with TOMORROW’S DREAM to land this opening race. She was very unlucky not to win last time out at Newbury, where her run was blocked, she had to switch to the outside, but by then it was too late. She has only gone up 3lbs for that run, which could be lenient as I think she is better than a mark of 84. 3yo’s have won every renewal of this race, which is also another tick in the box of Tomorrow’s Dream.
Hateya is a usual in this race, and often runs well at this track, she has finished 2nd and 5th in the last two years in this race. She will make a bold bid with Cieren Fallon doing the steering, but she is vulnerable to an improver.
Wasaayef looks to be the main danger, she is unexposed (raced 3x) and has a very nice pedigree. She has not run for 311 days, which could mean she might need this, but if she is firing then she could run a big race.
1.45pm Goodwood – Unibet You're On Handicap
Obviously, this is an open race, with a lot of horses with good chances, but I am opting for an outsider at the bottom of the weights.
SUCELLUS is my pick, as I think he is back to form. His last two runs have been eye-catching and though he has not gone close to winning, it looks like he is getting to a dangerous mark. He clearly handles the track, running well last year when finishing 3rd over C&D. Since then, he has also run well at similar tracks like Epsom, where he finished 7th (eyecatcher).
He gets in at the bottom of the handicap at 8-3 and gets a quality low weight jockey in David Egan taking the ride. He is held up in most of his races, so might need some luck in running.
Another interesting fact about this horse is that he is still a colt and has not been gelded. This is quite strange, considering the fact he is rated 87 and is a four-year-old. This gives the impression that they think he is still capable of a lot better than what he has shown so far, as surely, they would have gelded him where it can potentially bring out improvement.
2.45pm Goodwood – Qatar Lennox Stakes
I am going for SIR DANCELOT to win this race for the third year in a row. This is a tough ask for the 6yo, but based on his runs this season, there is no sign of him slowing down. He raced over 6f lto, and it looked like a return to 7f would be ideal. Before that, he was hindered with a 5lb penalty in the Betway Criterion Stakes Group 3 at Newmarket, where it looked like he needed the run, but still ran with plenty of promise.
The fact that his form isn’t up to the same level as the likes of Space Blues/Safe Voyage does not bother me as last year he turned up to this race last year in similar form, and still managed to win cosily. This is his Derby of the year, and David Elsworth will have to spot on for this race.
He is another hold up horse who will need a lot of luck in running, but there should be a decent pace set by the likes of Marie’s Diamond, and Glorious Journey who is generally close to the pace. The faster they go, the better our chances are, as it will open the race and hopefully give us the gaps we need to weave through the field.
3.45pm Goodwood – Qatar Handicap
This is not really a race I would put a lot of money on, but I do think there’s a lot of pace and it could set it up for CELSIUS who seems to need a good pace to aim at.
He was ultra-progressive last year for Tom Clover, landing four wins from five runs. He has already won once this season, when winning a Class 3 race at Haydock. The other two runs can be excused, as he came out of the stalls awkwardly at Haydock, and then at Newmarket he did not get the ideal pace to aim at.
Tomorrow there is a bunch of pace on, with the likes of Ornate, Caspian Prince, A Momentofmadness, Acclaim the Nation and a few more who like to run from the front. If they take each other on, then it could set it up for a closer.
I would not be extremely confident in this type of race as there is a lot of quality and a lot of them are well-handicapped, but if I were pushed for a selection, I would side with Celsius.
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