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Rizzel's sole selection yesterday Montgomery was not at the races at all and ultimately it was a disappointing performance for connections.
Time is still on Montgomery's side after only five career starts but he seems a quirky sort of horse and probably not one to throw the wallet at next time out.
It was pretty much game over from the get-go for Montgomery yesterday, fluffing the first and never really got going after that. Charlie Deutsch decided to take Montgomery from last to first during the midway point of the contest and I don't blame him for trying that tactic as his mount was uninterested. Montgomery did start to run in patches but he very quickly fell towards the rear and that was the end of his chances.
Cairnzy's Tips
Target Man 10/3 – Newcastle 3.58
The current market seems strong on the chances of Power Fizz and A War Eagle progressing past my selection and although this race isn't the deepest and there is a strong chance that could happen, I still feel there is more to come from the Amo Racing owned Target Man.
Target Man remains a maiden after five career starts but has occasionally shown signs of ability. He has been a beaten favourite on two of those five outings which is a tad concerning, however being owned by Amo Racing and having Billy Loughnane on board will always affect the market prices.
My selection has the benefit of more racing experience which I think is a massive plus when coming up against horses who are making their debuts or only raced the one or two times. Interestingly connections have opted to step Target Man up in trip to 7f, which I think is well worth exploring as he's been campaigned mainly to 5f/6f and he doesn't look a sprinter on the back of previous efforts.
GambleAware
Where have all the tipsters gone?
I know, it’s sad to see.
I was thinking the same. Hope they return in time for Cheltenham! 🤞🏻
Yes it is sad to see, I have my own issues with my health so I can’t be on as much as before but to see the comments dwindling as they are is a real shame.
But what I miss most about the thread is the complete lack of chat with regards to the upcoming festivals.
In the past there was always chat between the guys about horses they have either backed or fancy for a particular race at whatever festival.
The headline tipster at the time was JohnB and he would always put up antepost selections which was also a huge help.
Tomorrow is the start of the DRF (Dublin racing festival) and with the crap racing we’ve had this week it was a perfect opportunity to have a discussion about it but instead we end up with days of 3 or 4 comments and not a sniff about it.
Surely if we are all racing fans then you are looking towards these type of festivals so why not discuss it on here.
Anyway, that’s my thoughts, I will be back in a bit with my thoughts on Day 1 of the DRF
GL
That winners enclosure is a free tip thing usually decent and puts up decent prices
1.15 Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1
Final Demand’s win at Christmas eyecatching, so much so I backed him immediately for the Albert Bartlett.
The form was also given a big boost with the 2nd and 3rd coming out and winning nto.
But I’ve had a look at previous winners of this race and since 2018 all winners had at least 4 runs under their belt making them a bit more battle hardened so if FD can win this after just 1 run, then he’s entitled to go and win whatever race he wants at the festival.
But this is a deep race with many having chances if you delve into the form book.
Declan Queally’s yard is flying at present and whatever he enters over the weekend is worth a second look, so Mozzies Sister will be on a lot of punters radar. He was beaten 4L by The Big Westerner who is towards the head of the AB market and will surely come on for that run.
But at the odds I’ve landed on I Am Lorenzo 16/1 ew who was just beaten into 2nd at Christmas. He would have won if the race had been 10 yards further, so the extra 2f here should be exactly what he needs.The 3rd came out and won since to boost the form.
His dam’s sire is Stowaway who is the joint leading sire in the race.
I just think at the prices he’s a great ew shout.
1.50 Juvenile Hurdle
The past 4 winners of the Triumph Hurdle have all run in this race, they haven’t necessarily won but they took part and whilst that may not be the case this year with both Lulumba and East India Dock looking ominous, it still warrants respect.
Hello Neighbour went straight into grade 2 class for his first start over hurdles and just held on at the line to beat Lady Allen Vega who reapposes again but I expect HN to confirm the form.
But Sainte Lucie was very impressive when winning on new year’s eve and the way Willie speaks about her he holds her in high regard and thinks she’s his No1 so I’m led to believe she will have too much for the rest here.
Hopefully whoever wins does it impressively and we have a real clash come march.
Sainte Lucie 2/1
2.25 Race and Stay h’cap hurdle
This race is all about Meetingofthewaters who is completely thrown in of a mark of 112.
When you consider his chase mark is 148 he should on paper be able to win as he likes.
But with a field of 26 runners and a price of around 2/1 he has to be taken on.
I’ve actually had a small ew bet on Rushmount current price 50/1 ( I got 66’s yesterday) who was only beaten a head by Lecky Watson back in Nov ’23 with Shannon Royale back in 3rd.
He then won nto by 8L beating 2 horses now rated 120 and 129. His next run was over a trip too short and he ran with credit on his first start this season in a pertemps qualifier but ran out of steam towards the finish but would have needed that run.
He’s been dropped a pound for that run so comes in here off 126 so is certainly well h’capped.
Might be worth an Elvis special with the ew extra currently 14/1 for 10 places but I’m on at 66’s ew 5 places
2.55 Irish Arkle Grade 1
According to the betting Majborough has this won already, and whilst that may be the case it won’t be easy against Ile Atlantique who has definitely improved for fences.
But the juvenile crop from last season I think is the best we’ve seen in some time and Majborough will come out on top.
He’s a big brute of a horse and I think this 2m 1f trip will benefit him more than the 1m 7f at the festival which is why I think Sir Gino will come out on top come march.
3.30 Irish Gold Cup Grade 1
Won’t spend long on this one, basically GDC + Leopardstown = Game over.
I might try the tri-cast of GDC, F2F and Embassy Gardens.
4.05 Ryanair h’cap Chase
I really like the chances of Midnight it Is who has been well found in the market and is he’s the current fav
But he’s fav for a reason being a huge eye catcher lto when not getting the clearest of runs but stayed on strongly suggesting with a clear run he’d have won.
Excellent claimer Conor Stone Walsh jumps on to take a valuable 5lbs off.
Shanbally Kid for Mullins has been well supported and makes his h’cap debut off 12lbs lower than his hurdle mark but he can’t jump a fence so I just can’t touch him.
My Mate Mozzies could be a danger also making his h’cap debut off 148. He’s been running on the flat and comes from the same yard as my selection so hopefully I’ve chosen the right one
4.40 INH Flat Race Grade 2
The Bumper form this year is a bit fuzzy with no clear standout. Usually you would see a WM hotpot line up here at short odds but it’s 3/1 the field this year which is very unusual.
I was visually impressed with He Can’t Dance when easily winning in dec. He was entitled to do so going off at 2/9 but when challenged 2f out the response was emphatic and won really easily.
A danger at an ew price could be Colcannon who beat Heads Up lto who then ran the current Bumper fav to 4L.
Might just need this run as he was a NR in Dec due to an allergy but he has form.
BOL
cave article 3.05 well done all winners yesterday
Yahooby next at Newcastle 9-1☘️☘️gl all
bobbies buety 3.45
Belagio man 9-1 ☘️☘️last one gl all
pike road 3.35
Tomorrow.
Sandown 2-35.
Kalif du berlais to beat handstands EVENS (double your dough)
Kalif du berlais 7-2 win
Both William HILLS.
Bought from France after one race, and was decent last year over hurdles but his last 2 chase efforts look like a horse who has found his niche and is improving fast.
Being french bred the heavy going won’t be an issue and gets a handy 4 pounds pull off the other 3.
Good little race this is and kalif, handstands and jingo Baie will all be relevant at Cheltenham and aintree.
Irish arkle 2-55 leopardstown 🇮🇪.
Ile atlantique 3-1 corals……
Not one for trends myself as trends are in the past but 2 stand out here .
No 5 year old has won this in living memory, well since 2013 lol, can’t find results before that
And
11 of the last 12 winners have been aged 6 or 7..
The last 5 year old to win it was Frozen Groom for Noel Meade in 2000. Not sure how many have tried though
Majborough is 5
Well aware of that Elvis, just letting you know when the last 5 year old won.
Irish racing.com is always a good place to find things like that out. They go back years usually at the bottom of each race page
The tipsters have gone cos the site is run like from MS Dos!
Update, engage punters , allow screenshots of bets, show accountability of your performance if your a paid tipster – simple stuff!
Get subscribers by providing a year in value for money membership, not just someone who can write up great story’s but always has a hard luck story 🧐🥴
You don’t expect winners every day or can be forgiven for having a little bad spell but the results speak for themselves . A kid just starting out betting can do better You would actually have to try to be that bad 😂 perhaps they are doing it on purpose so they get the boot ! They get all defensive when you say about it . But if your putting yourself out there to say you are a tipper better than your regular punter and getting paid and you are clearly failing miserably then you got to take what comes your way on the chin and not throw a hissy fit . If you can’t do it then go back to being a regular punter and lose your own money and not entice others follow you down the black hole of punting misery 😂. As long as you can bang out a few paragraphs of waffle you got the job 😂. Not to worry the contributors have always banged out more winners than the headliners and would suggest people just follow them if they actually want to see some money go back into there pockets 😂 it’s nothing personal but facts are facts
zooks 7.00 nap well done all winners today
si senior 7.15 NB