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1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Tuesday 15 March | Age: 4yo+ | Prize: £75,964
The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is traditionally the curtain-raiser of the Cheltenham Festival. Open to horses aged four years or older who are novices (meaning they hadn’t won a race over hurdles prior to that season), the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is run on the Old Course over a distance of about two miles and half a furlong (2 miles and 87 yards).
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Betting
The Cheltenham Festival is here, and more often than not the first race of the Festival (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) is a tough one to break down, which is often not won by the favourite, with the favourite winning it just three times in the last ten years.
CONSTITUTION HILL Won on his only two hurdle starts, doing it in emphatic fashion, and looking very good on the eye. However, how good is his form when you really look into it.
He was well supported on debut, going off at odds of 85/40, which is normally a strong indicator that connections thought he was smart, as on paper he was taking on a decent horse in Might I. The form of that race is still up in the air, with the runner-up only running once since, coincidentally finishing 3rd behind Jonbon by 4.75L, which is much closer than he got to Constitution Hill, who slaughtered him by 14L without getting into top gear.
On his second start he won a pretty weak Tolworth Hurdle (Grade 1), beating what would appear to be handicappers. Once again, he did it well, but the form doesn’t quite stack up. Shallwehaveonemore who finished back in 4th is a Graded novice horse, in my opinion, and didn’t show his true showing that race, but isn’t top level. When you delve into the Tolworth hurdle of the past 10 years, it has only produced two Cheltenham Festival winners of the same year, which were Yorkhill (2016, won the Ballymore) and Summerville Boy (2018, won the Supreme, but it was a fairly weak renewal). More often than not, this race doesn’t produce the goods at the festival, despite the fact most winners do it in very good fashion.
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DYSART DYNAMO would appear to be Willie Mullins’ main charge for the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival, with Paul Townend taking the ride over his stablemates Kilcruit & Bring On The Night which you can’t blame him for. This horse looks like a relentless galloper, and will make sure this race is run at a good pace. He’s currently 4/4 in his career, two wins from bumpers and two wins from hurdles, and on every single run, he looks like a horse with immense ability. Once again, the form of what he has beaten doesn’t look amazing, but like Constitution Hill, he has done it without getting out of first gear.
The Grade 2 which he won at Punchestown was the steppingstone for many of Willie Mullins’ great horses, so it’s interesting that they’ve gone the same and picked that race for this horse, as they must rate him as high as the following: Vautour, Douvan and Min all won this race before going on to the Cheltenham Festival, with the first two winning the Supreme, and Min finishing runner-up.
I think he could be very special, but knowing he likes to run from the front, could one or two horses maybe try and take him on for the lead and upset the apple cart?
As for the others in the field, personally, I couldn’t touch JONBON, and I think his odds are shorter than what they should be. He has always had this reputation since joining Nicky Henderson’s yard as he is a full brother to Douvan, so every time he has run, he has that shadow looming over him. Fair play to him, he has won all of his races, but the manner in which he has won hasn’t been anywhere near as impressive as the others who top this market. But when you sit down and look, he has arguably beaten better horses (not convincingly thought). He has won a couple of races which were turned into a sprint, and it does look like he has a lot of pace about him, but the recent Haydock Grade 2 he won doesn’t really fill me with confidence, and that race hasn’t produced a Cheltenham Festival novice winner since 2012.
MIGHTY POTTER has to be respected for the Gordon Elliot yard, but I think his jumping isn’t good enough for him to win this race. With the likely pace to be set by Dysart Dynamo, and it likely to be a good pace, his jumping will have to be spot on if he wants to win this, as if it isn’t, which it hasn’t been in certain points this season, he’ll be on the back foot, and that’s not what you want, especially at a track like Cheltenham which tests your jumping. He is an EW player, but I’d side against him.
After delving into the race, and thinking about it tactically, I think KILCRUIT could be the value in the race. Yes, he hasn’t got off to the career over hurdles that 99% of us expected, but it doesn’t mean his career is over. This runner-up in the Champion bumper in 2021 at Cheltenham still has bags of ability, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he is a Grade 1 horse, whether that is today or not, we’ll have to see.
Some people will probably think I’m barmy backing this horse for the Supreme, but what we found out about this horse last year is that a 2m run at a good pace is what will bring the best out of this horse. The Champion Bumper was ran at a snail’s pace last year, and the winner (Sir Gerhard) profited from a good front running ride, but Kilcruit was staying on strongly at the finish. He reversed the form with Sir Gerhard at the Punchestown Festival, and he won it easily. His starts over hurdles this year have been disappointing but there are reasons to forgive. He probably needed his run on hurdles debut, the second run has turned into a decent bit of form with the winner and runner-up looking like strong contenders for the staying novice hurdle race later in the week.
That race was too far for Kilcruit, who travelled strongly but didn’t have the stamina to go with the others. He was quite keen in that race as well, which didn’t help. I do think there will be a competition for the lead, with Silent Revolution & Shallwehaveonemore liking to take a pull, and they’re massive outsiders and their only real chance of winning is to go off like the clappers, which would pester DD and force a good pace, which will help Kilcruit who is a strong stayer at the trip and likes the track.
It's worth noting that if Sir Gerhard did run in this race, which I think he should've done, I think he would've won, so the fact this horse has form with him from last year is another reason to believe he will run a big race.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tips
- Kilcruit (Each-Way) 7/1 @ The Pools
Cairnzy's Supreme Novices' Hurdle Betting Tips
A cracking opener and I’ve decided to play this one safe. Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand with Constitution Hill and Jonbon with all eyes more so on Constitution Hill who looks a real scary animal. The manner in which he won his two races at Sandown make him a worthy favourite in my opinion. Sandown is a tough track and he eased to victory without any real bother in either of those races.
I can see Cheltenham being a breeze in the park for him but at 5/2 I couldn’t risk a straight win on it. I was surprised to see Jonbon at 5s if I’m perfectly honest. Because I think he’s a better horse than Dysart Dynamo and the Mullins runner is marked up currently at 9/4.
Jonbon who is a full brother to the legendary Douvan is starting to pay back the £570,000 price tag on his head. He too has been impressive on recent starts.
I’ll be very surprised if he isn’t involved in the finish and that’s why I’ve gone for the place market at 5/6 as I still feel that’s a good price to nearly double your money if it lands.
Cairnzy's Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tips
- Jonbon ( TO PLACE ) 5/6 @ The Pools
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15 of the last 17 were rated 153 or higher and there’s not one horse rated that high here.
However, I believe that’s because it’s been so long since the principles ran and had they run again would be within that mark as I think this is the hottest Supreme in some time.
Constitution Hill
2-2 and has looked impressive so far but what did he beat.
Not a single horse that ran in the Tolworth has franked the form. Jetoile was 2nd that day although beaten 12L but trailed in last in the Betfair Hurdle.
He’s also only ran at Sandown so hasn’t gone left handed yet.
Reports in the camp say he’s a superstar and he might be, but I just can’t warm to him based on what he’s done so far.
Dysart Dynamo
Has won on the snaff in both starts including the Moscow Flyer by 19L. He’s also won over 18f so should have no problem seeing out the trip.
He’s highest rated in the field by 4lbs and considering he’s not run since 16th Jan is still rated 1lb higher than Sir Gerhard which is interesting.
But like CH has yet to run left handed and you just never know how he will handle it. He’s also a bit quirky and with 60k there he might not settle.
Jonbon
3-3 but his first 2 runs were a bit of a farce as they went a snails pace.
His last win at Haydock at first I wasn’t that impressed, however on further examination it could be the best thing that happened as he’s now battle hardened unlike DD and CH.
He’s gotten warm before each start and like DD with 60k there will he be able to handle that sort of crowd. If he does he’s got a chance.
Kilcruit
Should have won the bumper last year imo. Beaten at 1/14 in his first start over hurdles but did seem to find his form lto with the aid of a tongue strap.
Last year’s winner Appreciate it was a 7yr old but it was a dreadful renewal and only 2-17 have been won by 7yr olds.
Also, horses wearing any type of headgear haven’t won since 1992 so he’s a definite no for me.
Mighty Potter
Should have won the Royal Bond but didn’t get the best of runs. If he had, would surely be more to the fore in the market imo, although has shortened In today.
His last win at leop was run 2 secs quicker than Sir Gerhard ran at the DRF.
He’s also bred for further and will have no problems with the Hill. If he’s close coming to the last he’ll have a hell of a chance.
Bets
Jonbon (7/1 antepost)
Mighty Potter 10/1 ew (put up last week )