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The First Chase race of the meeting is the Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1).
We have nine turn up for the Arkle, a race which is all about the speedy 2m novice chasers, but in theory, you can whittle the horses which actually have a chance down to about two or three. Similar to the Supreme, we've had some great horses win this in the last ten years, one's who have gone on to put a real stamp in the 2m division and even 2m 4f.
The likes of Un De Sceaux, Douvan, Altior (the last two won the Supreme the year before), Shishskin, and Edwardstone. The latter takes his chance in the Champion Chase later on in the meeting and Shishskin is the short-priced fancy for the Ryanair. Whatever wins this race will be eyeing up either of those races next year!
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Cheltenham 2:10 – Jonbon 13/8 (2pt)
Though this race lacks depth in terms of the runners who actually stand a chance, it is still a cracking race, and a race you can definitely have a bet in as the two at the head of the market are fairly close to each other in odds and are both above EVS.
For me, this will be a real test of jumping, and for that reason, I'm going for Jonbon. This horse has always had a reputation since he was unraced as he is a brother to Douvan, who is a fan favourite and was a top-class horse in his day. He has a lot to do if he wants to be compared to his brother, but he looks like a really nice horse and is a Grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences. He finished second in the Supreme last year behind Constitution Hill, which isn't something to be laughed at, even at the distance he was beaten. He then went to Aintree where he beat El Fabiolo, the horse who looks the most likely threat to him in today's race. They are closely matched over hurdles, as you can see by the distance Jonbon won (head), but for him to go to Cheltenham and then to Aintree shows what kind of class he has. It's tough to do that, and Harry Cobden said in a recent interview that probably 80% or more who do the Cheltenham, Aintree double don't run their races, so full credit goes to Jonbon.
His form has been knocked over fences this year, but that's only based on his most recent run where he traded around 9/1 in running when he beat Calico in a match race at Warwick. He jumped well in that race, slightly out to the right (nothing too concerning) and when the runner-up got 3L ahead which saw Aidan Coleman get a little serious on Jonbon it saw people start to question if he is really that good. Calico franked that form by winning next time out, nothing spectacular but it goes to show that he is a good horse in his own right. But, there's no way Jonbon was 100% for that, Nicky would've been slowly prepping him for today's race and in a two-runner race, which can get tactical I thought he did fine. His best asset is his jumping, and he's looked a natural throughout this season. He seems to jump better when there's pace injected into the race, so the fact that Dysart Dynamo is in the race should tee it up perfectly for him.
The main threat is definitely El Fabiolo. He won nicely last time out at the Dublin Racing Festival, winning by 10L, looking like a real stayer at the trip. They surrendered an early lead to Dysart Dynamo that day but managed to reel him back in with ease, which looked very eye-catching. However, his jumping doesn't convince me. He gets over to the other side no problem, but he doesn't look the most natural and that's something you can't do at a track like Cheltenham which is so unforgiving, especially at the pace which is expected in this race. He's a Grade 1 performer, there's no denying it, but this is a different test from what he's faced. He's the one they have to beat according to many in the racing game, and I can see why, but his jumping sways me toward Jonbon.
The one horse who could blow this race wide open is Dysary Dynamo. Some pundits have mentioned that what if the two main horses in the market let Dysart get an easy lead and think he'll come back to them, but never does, allowing Dysart to stretch on and lead from pillar to post. That is a strong possibility, especially on soft ground, but I thought the manner in which they caught him last time out was of notice. This is a furlong shorter than what he raced over at the DRF, but this track is stiffer and is more stamina based, and definitely more of a jumping test. He does jump well for the most part, but when there's a slight bit of pressure applied, his jumping falls apart (based on his run lto). He's a speedy horse, and a bit of a nutcase, so I'd also be worried about the preliminaries with him, as he might boil over. He tried leading them a merry dance in the Supreme last year, but Jonbon and Constitution Hill bridged the gap down the back straight, so I imagine Aidan will do something similar in this race.
If you're a backer of Dysart Dynamo, you've got to be worried about Effernock Fizz who might mess up the plans. He shouldn't be good enough, as we've seen his level already shown by his defeats this season. But, he is a front-runner, only really knowing one way of running so he might pester Dysart for the lead, setting it up for the closers.
In theory, the others in the race shouldn't be good enough, but to mention another it would have to be Saint Roi who is another Willie Mullins runner. He's a good hurdler on his day, often running well in Graded races, finishing on average 7-9L behind Honeysuckle. He has won at the Festival before, and finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last year, so clearly enjoys the track, but his jumping this year hasn't been great over fences, and he might struggle today.
