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PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP 5.30
CAPTAIN CHRIS won at this meeting in 2011. Better than ever when second in King George (beaten neck by Long Run) and Ascot Chase this term, but needs to bounce back from below-form sixth in Gold Cup last time.
Chicago Grey got back to best when springing a bit of a surprise in Navan Grade 2 in February. Probably best to forgive subsequent poor run in Grand National but biting off more than he can chew at this level.
First Lieutenant has posted solid efforts at the top level since tried in cheekpieces, second in Lexus and Ryanair before going one better in Betfred Bowl at Aintree earlier this month. Sure to give it his usual good shot.
Kauto Stone beat First Lieutenant at Down Royal in November. Flopped in King George next time and no better back over hurdles in January, but wouldn't be a massive shock if he bounced back after short break.
Long Run wore down Captain Chris to land a second King George in December. Good third in Gold Cup in cheekpieces (on again), but has 2¾ lengths to make up with Sir des Champs on that running.
Quito De La Roque is a high-class chaser who returned to best to win Thurles Grade 2 in January and another good effort when fourth to First Lieutenant at Aintree last time. Likely to come up little short again.
Riverside Theatre was a top-class performer at his best, winning Ascot Chase and Ryanair last season. Better effort this term when fourth to Cue Card at Cheltenham last time but was never going with much fluency.
Sir Des Champs was unbeaten during his novice season and has graduated into a top-class chaser this term, winning Irish Hennessy before giving best only late on when second to Bobs Worth in Gold Cup last time.
1. Sir Des Champs
2. First Lieutenant
3. Long Run
Verdict: A cracking renewal of this Grade 1 prize. Sir Des Champs is likely to be tough to beat if fully recovered from a hard race in the Gold Cup, with the same owner's First Lieutenant just preferred to Long Run for the forecast spot.
DAILY DOUBLE
Taunton 5.55
SUERTE AL SALTO 1/1 totesport
Successful in a hurdle race and a NH flat race at 1m 6f and 2m on good to soft and soft ground. Won on his latest outing in a maiden hurdle race when 8-13 fav at Wincanton over 2m (soft) earlier this month, beating Somchine by 6l. Has also won at Fontwell this season.
Sedgefield 7.55
PHASE SHIFT 6/5 betvictor
Successful in two hurdle races at 2m on good ground. A winner at 10-3 in a hurdle race at Ludlow over 2m (good) on her latest outing earlier this month, beating Candelita by a neck. Has also won at Doncaster this season.
FOR A TREBLE ADD
Taunton 6.30
SPEED STEED 10/11 bet365
A winner of a hurdle race at 2m on good ground (latest flat win was in January). Beaten 4l by Peaks Of Fire when second of four at 4-11 fav on his latest outing in a chase at Sedgefield over 2m 4f (heavy) last month.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER
Epsom 3.20
MISTER IMPATIENCE 7/4 betfred
Successful at 1m and 1m 2f on soft ground. Won on his latest outing when 7-4 fav at Doncaster over 1m 2f (soft) last month, beating Allnecessaryforce by 9l.
Perth 5.35
ROLECARR 9/1 paddypower
Winner of three hurdle races and four chases from 2m to 3m 1f on ground varying from good to firm to heavy. Won on his latest outing in a chase when 11-4jt-fav at Kelso over 2m 7f (heavy) in February, beating Or de Grugy by a nose. Has won twice at Kelso this season.
OUTSIDER
Catterick 1.35
MISHHAR 12/1 BET365
Placed once in seven starts. Finished 4 1/2l behind Alluring Star when fourth of 7 at 13-2 on her latest outing at Beverley over 1m (good to firm) earlier this month. She is wearing a visor for the first time.
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Any fivefolds ?
E/W DOUBLE
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SILVIO DANTE 5.8
5:15 CATTERICK
JAWAAB 5.6
6:10 PERTH
Milesey
Epsom 3.20 – Gabrials Kaka
Sedgefield 7.25 – Call It On
Punchestown 5.30 – Sir De Champs
Epsome 3.55 – Spanish Duke
Taunton 5.55 – King Of Dudes
EPSOM – PLACEPOT
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14:20 – Although it wouldn’t normally be best practice to put a reappearing horse in a Placepot perm, we can make an exception in the case of Sacrosanctus, who appears to have everything else in his favour. A speedy type whose course record comprises two wins and a second from three starts, his high draw also makes him best placed of the numerous potential pace-setters in this race. The fact there looks to be such strong competition for the lead could also play into the hands of Diamond Charlie, who is drawn next door to Sacrosanctus and is a free-going sort who normally goes best when getting a good lead into a race.
14:50 – We can afford to stick to the ‘no reappearing horses’ line in leg two, chiefly because there are a couple of interesting horses with a run behind them already in 2013. Admittedly, Mawaakef has been off for a couple of months, but his level of form is useful and consistent, while he was second off a 1 lb lower mark at this course last year, so he shouldn’t have a problem handling the undulations. Beyond Conceit arguably has stronger claims, at least where winning the race is concerned, as he’s unexposed and shaped like he’s going to improve for the Balding yard (formerly with Tom Tate) on his recent reappearance at Doncaster.
15:20 – The offer of a ‘wild-card’ place in the Derby field for the winner of this race is no more than a noble gesture, few in the field having claims to being much better than useful, but there is at least a competitive element to the contest this year. There is a case for using it to save lines, with three places on offer in a nine-strong field and Mister Impatience having plenty in his favour. Progressive in three starts as a juvenile, Mister Impatience was heavily backed when making a winning reappearance in a handicap at Doncaster last month. Although it would probably be unwise to take the nine-length winning margin at face value, Mister Impatience looked straightforward and that could prove important against a bunch of largely-inexperienced sorts.
15:55 – It’s probably slightly more difficult to lose a Timeform ‘squiggle’ than earn one, which is why Spifer’s achievement in having it removed before his most recent start needs attention. He has indeed been most consistent in recent starts and, in the form of his life to boot, needs to be included in our perm. Second place in our perm goes to Validus, who was deemed good enough to take his chance in a listed race on his most recent start and has been upped to what could be an even more suitable trip now. Although he’s making his reappearance, and therefore breaching a certain guideline, Validus is more than worth the risk.
16:30 – An eight-runner maiden is normally a good time for a banker. Legal Waves perhaps wouldn’t be a natural choice, coming here off the back of a single run last year, but early market vibes are sufficiently encouraging to suggest he’ll be ready to do himself justice, with his debut form superior to anything else on offer in this field.
17:00 – A three-year-old handicap is hardly an ideal way to finish, but we can again go with the combination of consistent sort couple with one that’s potentially well-handicapped. Our ‘rock’ is Sennockian Star, second on both starts this year and still probably improving gradually for all his modest win record. Lionheart is our potential handicap blot. Second on his own reappearance, Luca Cumani’s colt looks sure to be better suited by this extended mile than seven furlongs and is taken to improve.
Selections:
14:20 – 2, 5
14:50 – 6, 7
15:20 – 7
15:55 – 3, 7
16:30 – 4
17:00 – 6, 8
= 16 lines
Milesey
All the movers ahead of racing at Epsom, Perth, Catterick and Punchestown…
Epsom
14:20
Sandfrankskipsgo 9.0 in to 6.8
14:50
Beyond Conceit 6.8 in to 5.6
15:20
Mister Impatience 2.96 in to 2.38
15:55
Spifer 11.5 in to 8.4
16:30
Storming 7.6 in to 5.6
Double Discount 12.0 in to 8.0
17:00
Colmar Kid 9.6 in to 7.8
Perth
15:00
Valleyofmilan 2.44 out to 2.84
17:35
Pigeon Island 10.0 in to 5.9
18:10
Jawaab 5.28 in to 4.7
Catterick
14:35
Just Paul 9.8 in to 7.2
15:10
Nurpur 3.29 in to 2.44
16:15
Alhaarth Beauty 6.6 in to 4.2
16:45
Bright Applause 9.6 in to 5.7
17:15
Silvio Dante 6.6 in to 4.1
Punchestown
16:20
Call Me Bubbles 2.3 out to 3.4
Viconte Du Noyer 3.65 out to 4.5
Gassin Golf 8.0 in to 5.9
Milesey
My Lucky15 for today
Its Oscar 4/1
Golden Sparkle 11/4
M J Woodward 9/1 (I always do this one)
Spanish Duke 4/1
Finances are worse than Greece until payday so no footy bets today just these numbers on the Irish lotto- 9-23-35-38.
My wee dbl at Punchestown
5.30 Sir Des Champs @15/8
6.40 Nadiya De la Vega @100/30
PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP 5.30
1. Sir Des Champs
2. First Lieutenant
3. Long Run
Result :
17:30 Punchestown (IE)
1st Sir Des Champs (FR)
2nd Long Run (FR)
3rd First Lieutenant (IRE)
Milesey
Sir de champs and a sir de champs long run forecast :)
get in Sir Des Champs :)
AMIR KHAN V JULIO DIAZ
SATURDAY 27TH APRIL 2013
Having lost two high profile fights stateside, the boy from Bolton is returning home to rebuild his career once again.
Khan’s one round demolition at the hands of Breidis Prescott in 2008 had seemed a long time ago with the controversy over refereeing, judging and drugs surrounding his defeat to Lamont Peterson in late 2011 seemingly an unfortunate blip. But the manner in which Khan was hammered by previously unheralded Danny Garcia last summer has forced a rethink, change in personnel as well as a new office, at least for the time being. Khan is home, is he back or better?
Certainly Amir looked a little more disciplined through his comeback win against previously unbeaten Carlos Molina in December, his first under the guidance of Andre Ward’s trainer Virgil Hunter. But Molina wasn’t in Khan’s league and there were signs he’s still wide open for the left hook, Danny Garcia’s signature punch. Khan and Hunter have had 6 months since to iron out the creases as well as develop some much needed defensive skills. This is a fight Khan 1.12 should and must win but it’s more important how he looks doing it and what he has learned in the meantime.
Opponent Julio Diaz 7.6 is no mug and he showed enough of the fire still burns in the belly when unfortunate to draw with unbeaten prospect Shawn Porter in December. A world champion at lightweight some six years ago, Diaz has been in with and lost to A-list fighters like Jose Luis Castillo and Juan Diaz so he won’t be fazed by Khan but he shouldn’t be good enough to beat him either. Diaz has responded with a couple of stoppage wins since beaten in three by puncher Kendall Holt last year and is a decent, credible but beatable opponent for Khan.
This match reminds me a little of Ricky Hatton’s bout against Juan Lazcano a few years ago in that it should and probably will result in a comfortable win but there could be moments of struggle. Unlike Hatton though, Khan has the style to make this relatively easy. Remember, Amir made Garcia look unworthy for the first two rounds until he was caught and that could be more pronounced here. Khan is nearly the fastest fighter on the planet but he’s not a puncher. When that eventually sinks in he can set about employing the tactics which will make him very difficult to beat in most fights. That has to be the remit from the outset.
As we saw against Molina, Khan is very fast and accurate but he’s not a big puncher. Molina took a shelling and still stood up before being rescued late on. Given that, along with Khan’s defensive, tactical development, I think this is likely to go some rounds. Khan has the ability to stop opponents he is levels above and that might be the case here but it will be late on, if at all and for me more likely to be decided on points.
This year is a significant one for Khan as he rehabilitates himself and his career but the future is looking bright, if he keeps winning. Promoters Goldenboy have set up a mini-tournament at 140lbs which includes old foe Garcia fighting Zab Judah on the same night Khan boxes and Lamont Peterson who faces off with Lucas Matthyse on May 18th. The idea is that the winners of those bouts meet in a semi-final and the victor meets Khan in a winner-takes-all scrap to decide the division’s king late in 2013 or early 2014. Khan needs time out for Ramadan hence he gets a bye to the final which no doubt will further fuel the fire between he and Danny Garcia and that would be the natural storyline to climax and conclude the series.
The irony is that Khan has been a fan-friendly fighter in watchable events but if he is to realise his ambitions he must curb that natural urge. Khan’s ultimate target Floyd Mayweather Jr hasn’t been the most attractive fighter to watch in recent years but he’s the most skilled, most watched and highest paid. Khan should take the hint, starting with this Diaz fight and take it from there. I hope skill and savvy, not fireworks are the order of the day.
Recommended Bet
Back Amir Khan to win by DEC/TD @ 1.71
Milesey
( betfair )
what a day dave condon is having
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SNOOKER
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The second round of the Betfair World Championship gets underway with a match-up involving the champions from 2005 and 2006, regard odds-on favourite Shaun Murphy a good thing…
With one world title each and five appearances in the final between them, there is little to choose in terms of Crucible pedigree between Shaun Murphy and Graeme Dott. If this season’s form and their respective first round performances are the criteria, though, Murphy looks a class apart.
Shaun didn’t set the tournament alight in the first session of his 10-5 victory over the capable Martin Gould, but ‘The Magician’ finished the match strongly, looking very fluent in the balls. His tally of six breaks of 78 plus probably represents the best scoring form seen so far. It is certainly unrecognisable from the dross served up in Dott’s victory over Peter Ebdon.
Now, to be fair, it must be said that Ebdon can have that effect on the best of players. Peter had no confidence whatsoever and, in typical style, slowed things up. The effect was to destroy any fluency Dott was showing at the start, so perhaps we’ll see a better showing against a more attacking opponent. Nevertheless, vast improvement will be need to threaten a class act like Murphy.
While neither man has won a title this season, Murphy’s numbers are miles ahead. He’s reached six semi-finals and was runner-up to world number one Mark Selby in the second biggest event of the season, the UK Championship. In contrast, Dott has reached only one semi and one final. For the latter, in the low-grade Munich PTC, he didn’t need to beat a single top-16 player to reach the final.
Over this long, best of 25 format, I strongly expect the formbook to stand up. 1.53 about Murphy should be a solid odds-on bet and 1.67 giving up a mere 1.5 frames on the handicap an equally good one. I prefer to take the bigger price about the latter.
Back Shaun Murphy on the -1.5 frame handicap 9u @ 1.67 (4/6)
Milesey
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The Zurich Classic
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Tournament History
The first Zurich Classic was way back in 1938. There were no tournaments between 1949 and 1957 and this will be the 67th staging of the event.
Venue
TPC Louisiana, Avondale, Louisiana
Course Details
Par 72 -7,341 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 – 71.00
The TPC Louisiana made its event debut in 2005 but just a year later the tournament returned to its old venue, English Turn, after Hurricane Katrina devastated this venue. The event returned in 2007 and it’s been played here ever since.
TPC Louisiana, like Hilton Head last week, is a Bermuda grass Pete Dye design. Built on 250 acres of former swamp land, the course has 71 bunkers and fully 20 acres of the site are covered in sand! Water is in play on eight holes and the average-sized greens will be running at around 11 on the stimpmeter.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 8.00pm on Thursday.
Last Five Winners
2012 – Jason Dufner -19 (playoff)
2011 – Bubba Watson -15 (playoff)
2010 – Jason Bohn -18
2009 – Jerry Kelly -14
2008 – Andres Romero -13
What will it take to win the Zurich Classic?
Jason Dufner ranked 25th for Greens In Regulation twelve months ago but that looks an anomaly. All the other winners at this venue have ranked inside the top 10 for greens hit. The other stat to examine closely is Par 5 Performance – the worst any winner here has ranked is 18th (Jason Bohn) and four of the top-five last year played the long holes in double-digits under-par.
Is there an angle in?
This might be a place to break your PGA Tour duck, as 10 of the last 19, and five of the last eight winners, were all winning their first event.
Is there an identikit winner?
Finding the type of player to succeed here isn’t easy – the list of winners is quite confusing. Big-hitters Andres Romero, Nick Watney and Bubba Watson have all prospered but so too have Tim Petrovic, Jason Bohn and Jerry Kelly, players not known for the length by any means and last year’s winner, Dufner, fits in-between the two.
In-Play Tactics
With the last four winners all in front by halfway, this looks like another event to concentrate on the early pace-setters.
Andres Romero came from a country mile back (73rd after round one!) in 2008 but the last four winners have all been up there all the way.
Dufner, having ended day one tied for 7th and two off the lead, hit the front at halfway, Bubba Watson and Jason Bohn, in 2011 and 2010, both won wire-to-wire and Jerry Kelly, like Dufner, had hit the front by halfway in 2009.
Market Leaders
In an open-looking affair, Justin Rose heads the market at 14.5. Although winless in 2013, the Englishman has been in fine fettle and sooner or later the odds are that he’ll knock down the door he’s been hammering on. He went to Augusta on the back of three straight top-tens on the PGA Tour and contended there too before his challenge disintegrated over the weekend.
There has to be a concern that that has left its mark and given tied 10th is the best he’s mustered here from five starts, I’m more than happy to leave him out.
The last two winners of the event, Dufner and Bubba, are vying for second favouritism but both look a shade too short to me.
It’s never easy defending a title and defending your first one is probably doubly so. Although he has, by some distance, the best course form on display, with figures that read 44-9-7-3-1, I can see Dufner struggling a bit this week. Not only does he have the pressure of defending, he isn’t in tip-top form at present either.
Bubba finished tied for 18th twelve months ago and that was a fantastic effort given the circumstances. He wasn’t just attempting to defend this title, he was also attempting to win back-to-back tournaments and the first one was quite a biggy – the US Masters! I can’t take the plunge at less than 20.0 before the off but I will be keeping a close eye on him in-running.
The only other two players trading at less than 30.0 are Keegan Bradley and Rickie Fowler and as they nearly always appear to me, they both look way too short.
Selections
Given their strong record in the event, I’ll be concentrating my efforts on the early pace-setters but I have picked out three before the off…
I’m a huge fan of Graham DeLaet and I’ve backed him a number of times but not recently. With his form far more consistent this season, the days of getting huge prices about the Canadian look gone for now but his missed cut last week at the Heritage, at a venue I wouldn’t have thought suited, looks to have given us a chance.
DeLaet is the only man in the field that ranks in the top-ten for the two stats that count – GIR and Par 5 Performance. He played alongside Dufner in the final group on Sunday last year but dropped down to a tie for fourth. As stated above, maidens have a decent record at this tournament, could Graham be the next one to break his PGA Tour duck here?
I backed Rory Sabbatini last week when he finished inside the top-ten at Hilton Head and I’ve done so again this. He was a bit of a stab in the dark at the Heritage and he was priced up accordingly. If I’m honest, I had to talk myself into taking 85.0 this week after backing him at 280.0 last, but he showed plenty at Hilton Head and I couldn’t let him go un-backed.
He was runner-up here behind Jerry Kelly in 2009 and he ranked 2nd for greens hit last week. You never quite know what you’re going to get with Sabba but he’s a multiple winner who’s not frightened of winning and when he’s on-song he’s a man I want onside.
Boo Weekley was all the rage last week as he attempted to win his third Heritage title – gambled down to a far too-short price in the 30.0’s. Tied 42nd wasn’t a great effort, thanks mainly to some poor scrambling and a cold putter and he has a mixed record here with form figures reading MC-13-10-MC but I thought he was worth chancing at a big price.
Currently ranked 6th for GIR and 13th for par 5 performance, like DeLaet, he ticks the right stats boxes boldly and with less pressure than last week, I can see him getting involved.
Selections:
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.0
Graham DeLaet @ 85.0
Boo Weekley @ 90.0
couple just added:
Camilo Villegas @ 67.0
John Rollins @ 71.0
Milesey
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ZURICH CLASSIC 3 BALL TIPS
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The three-ball that immediately stands out is the all-American trio of former winners – Bubba Watson, Jason Dufner and Nick Watney – and the price that stands out is that of outsider. There’s not much between the trio’s recent form but Watney performed best at the Masters, finishing with a wet sail to claim 13th place. Jason Dufner has been in the top 10 here each of the last three years and is the clear dangerman.
Stuart Appleby is another player with good course form, he finished sixth in 2010 and has an average score of 69.75 for eight rounds around TPC Louisiana. ‘Apples’ has posted his best two finishes of the season in his last two outings (46th and 35th); the Australian is priced up as the outsider of his three-ball with Rory Sabbatini and Johnson Wagner; he’s worth a small investment.
Josh Teater’s course form is slightly better than that of three-ball opponent Jimmy Walker. Teater is having a similar season to the three-ball favourite, sitting alongside the consistent Walker in the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings. Both have enjoyed a good start to the season, but Teater looks to have been underrated by the bookmakers. James Driscoll makes up the three-ball.
Recommended Bets
Back Nick Watney @ 3.1
Back Stuart Appleby @ 3.1
Back Josh Teater @ 2.87
Milesey
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PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS
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It was a great night in Dublin – the players loved the crowd and only Phil Taylor let me down in my six predictions! There were a couple of lucky results like Van Gerwen beating Lewis, but last week seemed to be the most predictable of all weeks in the Premier League. This week will be a little different.
It’s week 12 and there are six more games in Birmingham at the NIA. It’s important for those on a bad run to forget the previous week, but that’s hard in the Premier League.
In other tour events you can have a bad week and then come up against a lesser player and get on a run. That’s impossible in this event. It’s every Thursday and you’re playing top players all the time. One loss and you could be thinking of relegation and that all adds extra pressure.
We haven’t really talked too much about the top four because of the battle for relegation, but the pressure is now really on.
I have to say a lot of players are looking tired. They could do with finding out what makes them tick at a good standard to sharpen them up. The one thing missing in this sport is that few players bring in a coach or a friend if things are going badly. Even if they did, I don’t think they’d listen!
I really like Andy Hamilton and Robert Thornton, though. They get up there and play their hardest – if they lose they just get on with it. I really like that attitude.
So on to Thursday’s matches in Birmingham.
Phil Taylor v Adrian Lewis
Taylor got a draw with Barnie last week, he’s fourth and still need points to guarantee fourth place and go to the O2. Lewis is in the worst form and his head is in the worst state I’ve seen in a young man. He’s an incredible talent but he’s just missing doubles. That’s making him want to score heavier and he’s pushing and pulling the darts. I can’t see him doing it on Thursday and Phil will be up for it. Adrian has got to literally turn his form around overnight and throw his best darts for 18 months.
My advice for Adrian would be to stay away from Phil; don’t practice with him on the same board and just go up there and try to enjoy it. That’s easy for me to say but when you enjoy it your arms aren’t so tight and you don’t pull your darts. If he can get into Phil in the opening two legs then Lewis with his ability could easily turn the game around. The form book, however, says he won’t.
ROD’S CALL: Taylor win
Simon Whitlock v Michael van Gerwen
Simon’s had a couple of good weeks and he really needs to win every game to make the top four. Meanwhile, Van Gerwen is on such a high. He’s the player Taylor’s been for 20 years. It doesn’t matter what’s happened to him in the previous three darts or legs, he doesn’t care. The only thing important to him is the next dart and that’s why he’s got such a great attitude.
That’s why Van Gerwen is so hard to beat and even Taylor is struggling against him. You just can’t intimidate him. He loves the game and I can only see Van Gerwen winning. He’s got that extra scoring power and Simon will have to look at some big check-outs at crucial times if he’s to have a chance.
ROD’S CALL: Van Gerwen win
Robert Thornton v Andy Hamilton
This is a tough match to call. They are both solid players and two consummate professionals with their play and conduct. Hamilton has relied on his double 16 and 8 but he’s been missing them in the last three weeks.
Thornton has been brilliant this year but he too has gone off the boil. This will be a close one and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a draw. Perhaps Thornton will have the edge.
ROD’S CALL: Draw
Raymond van Barneveld v James Wade
This could be the game of the night. Wade has probably been playing his best darts for four years over the last few weeks. He’s another player who’s got his brain in the right gear and who isn’t worrying too much about his opponents. Barnie played very well last week but was letting people off at crucial times. In this field he’ll get crucified and he can’t afford to slip-up against Wade.
Wade has been prolific, especially with 124 and 120 check-outs, but this will be close and could easily be a draw. Barnie has his fluency and natural ability and he’ll be facing a man who’s a solid professional. It’s like George Best playing Kevin Keegan! Keegan was the not the most naturally gifted and had to work so hard, while Best was rubbish for most of the game and would then score two goals.
In darts, the solid pro wins 8 out 10 times. Wade is a 90-minute man and you have to play so well to get anything off him.
ROD’S CALL: Draw
Phil Taylor v Simon Whitlock
Phil has got to get a four-pointer on Thursday. Whitlock has not had the best results against Taylor but the difference between these two is that Phil can play two big games in one night and keep the same standard. Simon struggles with that and that may be his downfall. He’s got the ability but playing a second game in Birmingham will hurt Simon more.
ROD’S CALL: Taylor win
Adrian Lewis v Robert Thornton
This is all about their first match of the night. If Lewis loses his first game, or plays badly, then it will be tough for him. If Thornton beats Hamilton then I can only see him beating Adrian. The form book says Thornton but I’ve just got this feeling that Lewis could do it. He’ll know he can’t make the top four and so he may get up there and be relaxed. We may just see the real Lewis in Birmingham and he may just pull it out of the bag.
ROD’S CALL: Lewis win. Just
RODNEY TROTTER
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FRENCH OPEN BETTING
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After Novak Djokovic’s defeat of Rafa Nadal in the final of the Monte Carlo Classic, lets look at the antepost betting on the French Open. Can Djokovic add the Roland Garros title to his Grand Slam haul or is reigning champ Nadal the best bet?
In the past eight years of Grand Slam tennis, the sight of Rafael Nadal gnawing playfully on the arms of the Roland Garros trophy has become one of the most predictable scenes in professional sport. Ordinarily any French Open preview would consist of trying to unearth any potential challengers who could realistically thwart Nadal’s march to victory, but Sunday’s defeat to world number one Novak Djokovic has raised questions around Nadal’s invincibility on the clay courts of Paris.
Take one look at Betfair‘s winners market, and you get the impression that the title is almost certainly likely to be won by either Djokovic or Nadal and it’s hard to argue anything to the contrary. Both players are trading at supremely short odds compared to the rest of the field but that’s simply testament to the historical dominance of Nadal and current form of Djokovic, so do not let this deter you from backing either of them.
The Serbian rightfully sits at the top of the ATP rankings and only needs a win in Roland Garros to a career Grand Slam and has already signalled his determination to overcome the final hurdle which has so far eluded him while Nadal’s record of winning 52 singles matches out of 53 at Roland Garros speaks for itself.
Despite Djokovic’s victory over Nadal, punters should be cautious before they pile into the Serbian to dethrone the clay court King. In 2011, Djokovic managed to score a series of clay court victories over the Spaniard in the lead up to last year’s French Open yet was unable to bring his form to Roland Garros where he eventually lost in the semis while Rafa scooped his fifth title.
For me, Nadal’s shift in price from around 1.75 to win the French prior to the Monte Carlo final, to 2.2 now, represents an undeserved shift in market confidence. Despite this recent loss, Nadal has had seven months rest and seems to have recovered from the knee injury which threatened his career. I’d be wary of dismissing Nadal’s chances of retaining his title and will be looking to back him at odds of 2.2, a tempting price when you consider he would usually begin any other clay court competitions as the odds-on favourite.
Is there anything to suggest that any other player will have the ability to topple one of these two titans? It doesn’t look likely. World number three Andy Murray began Monte Carlo with aspirations of surpassing Djokovic as the ATP’s best ranked player in the world, but his lacklustre defeat to Stanislas Wawrinka in straight sets has done nothing to persuade punters that he is a strong bet to prove his worth on the red stuff, shifting out to 27 for Roland Garros glory. The general consensus amongst tennis pundits seems to be that although Murray can defend the baseline as doggedly as Nadal and Djokovic, the Scot lacks the raw power in his groundstroke game to contend on clay.
If you had to pick any one of the unlikely challengers to potentially cause a shock, I’d be tempted to back David Ferrer at 42 to win and hope he has a good run on his favoured surface to enable a back to lay before he comes up against the two favourites.
Recommended Bets
Back Rafa Nadal to win the French Open at 2.2
Back David Ferrer 42 for a back to lay opportunity
Milesey
( betfair )
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HEINEKEN CUP RUGBY TIPS
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Clermont v Munster
Saturday 27th April, 5pm
Montpellier made it as difficult as they could for them, but Clermont swashbuckled their way to a 59th successive home win in the quarter-final to book a semi-final tie with the fiery red of Munster, ironically to be played at beaten Montpellier’s Stade de la Mosson.
Munster showed that, by showing scant regard for your own personal safety and putting your body on the line for that famous red shirt, you can go places otherwise thought beyond you. Give thy body to Munster and ye shall be rewarded. Harlequins were bruised, battered and ultimately defeated in their own backyard.
This semi-final has the makings of a classic encounter for all the ages: the flair and ability of Clermont behind their massive pack is genuinely frightening, but Munster simply do not know when to quit. This is going to be brutal and a game that will live long in the memory.
While Clermont blew Montpellier away with tries from numbers 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 in astonishing style, Munster were more spoilers than pace-setters, not allowing to Harlequins to get into their rhythm and making it edgy for them. They were physical and dominant around the breakdown and made it count when it really mattered.
Can they do this to Clermont? Hmm, difficult and on balance I’d say no. But if they are to have any chance at all against this team that, should they win this year’s Heineken Cup would rightly be considered one of the great teams of recent times, then they need to do what they did against Quins.
In truth, Clermont can score from anywhere and it’s likely that as soon as Munster locate an area to lockdown and keep tight, the French side will pop up in another area and punish them. But that doesn’t mean it won’t be close, and with big players like Ronan O’Gara and Paul O’Connell in their ranks, the Red Army can at least have a say in what happens in this match.
Recommended Bets
My best bet on Saturday teatime is to back Munster +11.5pts in the handicap, because I think they can stay in touch just through sheer will and desire. 1.9 seems a fair price for that and I’ll take it. If you fancy a bit more of a flutter, Back Munster/Clermont in the HT/FT market at 5.8 – Munster will try to overwhelm Clermont early on and try to disrupt their rhythm, and it may take the French outfit a while to shake the Irishmen off.
Saracens v Toulon
Sunday 28th April, 3pm
What a game Toulon v Leicester in the quarter-final was, and not just because we called it right in this column. Leicester refused to roll over, refused to give in and refused to be defeated until the very final whistle and I was impressed and inspired by their courage. In the end, Jonny Wilkinson had to get his boot out to settle it, and he’ll need to be on top form again for his side to come away from Twickenham with a place in the final safely in their pockets.
If reports are to be believed, Twickenham won’t be anywhere near capacity on Sunday but I don’t think that’s really going to affect either team. A lot of Toulon’s players have played at Twickenham many times before and so Saracens hopes of whipping the stadium into a partisan cauldron of intimidation probably wouldn’t have had much effect regardless. I don’t think Saracens will be affected by the lack of supporters in the arena either; this is a highly motivated team. They want to win this competition and don’t care if a few men and their dogs are all who see them do so.
The market has this game a tricky one to call, and I agree with that assessment. For all Toulon’s quality I still have a suspicion that they’re not quite the sum of their parts yet and they showed that when they struggled to put Leicester away. Saracens can win this game provided they are physical and dominant at the breakdown and stop Toulon runners at the gain line effectively. The Men in Black have superb mental strength and can use that focus to force Toulon into errors and then capitalise, and that’s exactly what I see happening on Sunday afternoon.
Owen Farrell versus Jonny Wilkinson has the makings of a real changing-of-the-guard type affair, provided Farrell can put in a performance. Jonny will be planning on letting Owen know that he’s not quite ready to shuffle off yet though and will make it exceptionally difficult for the young pretender to his crown. On his day, Jonny Wilkinson is still a world class rugby player and a lot will depend on how well he rises to one more occasion at his old stomping ground.
Recommended Bet
2.06 is a fair price for a Saracens win against a talented Toulon side, and that’s what I’ll be backing.
Back Saracens to beat Toulon at 2.06
Maybe 2nd half to have the most goals in the Fenerbahce v Benfica game?
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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Football is poor on thursday, Europa League games have been covered, and also the darts, so going to take the IPL Cricket for my bet of the day.
Chennai Super Kings v Hyderabad Sunrisers
Start time: 15.30BST
TV: live on ITV4
Chennai
Chennai are beginning to look ominous. They have three successive victories and really should make it four with this home contest. Following worries about their lazy batting, they emphatically confounded all critics by chasing a whopping 186 against Rajasthan Royals. Mike Hussey and Suresh Raina were the architects of that chase with quick runs. The giant West Indian fast bowler Jason Holder had a poor debut (Rajasthan had 71 on the board after seven overs) and could be replaced. Dirk Nannes and Albie Morkel are potential starters.
Hyderabad Sunrisers
It is a meeting like this when the IPL governing council’s ban on Sri Lanka players appearing in Chennai highlights just what an unfair advantage the Super Kings are enjoying. Hyderabad will be without two of their most influential players in captain Kumar Sangakkara and all-roudner Thisara Perera. They have at least prepared themselves. Sangakkara did not play in the victory over King’s XI which took the Sunrisers, albeit briefly, to the top of the table. Cameron White led in his absence and once again he is expected to take the armband. Perera’s likely replacement is Nathan McCullum. There is still no sign of a return to fitness of star batsman Shkihar Dhawan.
First-innings runs
Here are the first-innings totals so far this season and last (most recent on right) at the MA Chidambaram Stadium: 112-205-164-146-156-139-160-114-222-190-148-165-159-185. That is an average of 162. Indeed, backing more than 160 at around 2.00 looks a fair wager given that backers of the score would have won 50% of the time over the study period. Of course we would rather be on Chennai for runs instead of Hyderabad so you may wish to wait until the toss. On three of the last four times they have batted first at CSK have posted 160 or more.
Match odds
Unsurprisingly Chennai are sizzling favourites to continue their good run. At 1.50 the Super Kings are an unappetising wager in this helter-skelter format. The Sunrisers are virtually friendless at a whopping 2.80. The case for a back-to-lay of the visitors is obvious. They need only a foothold rather than a concerted spell of dominance to get the clicks down. Their best chance comes in the form of their pace attack: Dale Steyn and Ishant Sharma. A couple of early wickets from those two and their price will plummet allowing a quick and easy profit. Chennai are not for us at such odds and if you fancy laying with a limited downside be our guest.
Wait for the toss and if chennai Bat First then BACK :
Chennai for 160 or more first-innings runs at 1.90
Back Chennai WIN @ 1.50
Milesey