The EFL season kicks off this weekend, and there are several betting angles worth considering across League One and League Two.
Doncaster begin life back in the third tier with a home clash against Exeter, while League Two promotion hopefuls Chesterfield and Colchester both host sides who struggled last season in Barrow and Tranmere. With changes in the dugout, summer transfers, and key metrics from 2024–25 to lean on, there’s early value to be found in all three matchups.
Chesterfield vs Barrow
Chesterfield are well-placed to start their season with a win over Barrow, and the data from last season, along with the state of both squads, strongly backs that up.
Paul Cook’s side were excellent at home last season, losing just 3 of 23 matches at the SMH Group Stadium. They ranked fifth in League Two for home expected points (42.85), and sixth for home xG, creating 1.59 expected goals per game while conceding just 0.90. They scored 41 goals at home and were rarely out of control in matches, averaging over 13 shots and more than 4 on target per game. That attacking structure is built on a stable core, with Chey Dunkley, Kyle McFadzean and Lewis Gordon anchoring a defence that has experience and athleticism. In forward areas, they have quality and variety — Armando Dobra is dangerous between the lines, while Dilan Markanday returns on a permanent deal after an impressive loan.
There’s also been smart recruitment. Zach Hemming arrives after a strong season in the Scottish Premiership, Ryan Stirk brings control in midfield, and striker Lee Bonis adds physicality and goals after scoring 39 times in 85 league games for Larne.
Barrow, by contrast, are going through a rebuild. Andy Whing has lost his three most important midfielders in Campbell, Gotts, and Spence, and while Earing, Smith and Harper have promise, they’ve had limited time to settle. Their away record last season was poor: W5-D7-L11 from 23 matches, with just 0.96 points per game. They scored only 18 goals away from home (0.78 per game), failed to score in 12 matches, and managed just five clean sheets.
Chesterfield to win is 7/10, which is a little short, but combining the home win with over 1.5 goals boosts the price to 10/11. That’s a more appealing angle given that 9 of Chesterfield’s 10 home wins last season came with at least two goals, and 20 of their 23 home games featured over 1.5 goals, averaging 2.95 goals per game.
- Best Bet: Chesterfield win & over 1.5 goals at 10/11 with Bet365
Colchester Utd vs Tranmere Rovers
Colchester -0.25 Asian Handicap looks a strong opening-day bet against a Tranmere side that struggled last season and has not done enough over the summer to close the gap. The U’s finished 10th in League Two and were one of the division’s most solid home teams, taking 38 points from 23 matches. They conceded just 15 goals at home (0.65 per game) and kept 12 clean sheets. Underlying metrics back that up, with Colchester ranking 10th for home xPTS (36.35), conceding just 0.90 xGA per game and allowing very few big chances.
Tranmere ended last season 22nd and were particularly poor away from home. They picked up just 18 points on the road, averaged only 0.66 xG per game (23rd), and conceded 1.79 xGA (22nd). Their away xPTS ranked 20th, while overall they were 17th for xPTS across the season. They failed to score in 10 away matches and ended the campaign with just 4 away wins all season.
Colchester have strengthened well this summer. Will Goodwin joins as a mobile number nine, Jaden Williams and Kyreece Lisbie add pace out wide, and Ben Perry adds control in midfield after a strong loan at Northampton. Crucially, they have retained Jack Payne, who scored eight goals and registered 10 assists last season.
Tranmere’s additions include Richie Smallwood and the returning Ethan Bristow, but they have lost Josh Hawkes and remain short in attacking depth. Their squad still lacks clarity, and they enter the season amid ownership uncertainty. Colchester look more settled, with better structure and form behind them. At -0.25 AH, you profit from a win and only lose half if it ends level. Given the quality gap, it’s a bet worth backing.
- Best Bet: Colchester -0.25AH at 5/6 with 10Bet
Doncaster Rovers vs Exeter City
Doncaster look well placed to begin life in League One with a win against an Exeter side carrying worrying trends from last season. Grant McCann’s side were League Two champions on merit, combining strong results with elite underlying numbers. They had the best non-penalty expected goal difference per 90 minutes (+0.59), conceded the fewest non-penalty xG (0.84), and backed that up with 84 points and 73 goals across the campaign. They lost only 10 times and failed to score in just seven matches, highlighting their consistency and attacking reliability.
Their title was built on athleticism, intensity and structure. Jamie Sterry, Luke Molyneux, Jay McGrath and Owen Bailey provide continuity from that well-drilled group, while signings like Matty Pearson, Brandon Hanlan and Damola Ajayi have added Championship-level pedigree. They also upgraded in goal with Thimothee Lo-Tutala returning from Hull.
By contrast, Exeter slumped badly in 2025, recording just 22.31 xPTS from January onwards – the worst in the division. They collected 25 points in that stretch, with only five teams picking up fewer. Their away data was particularly poor: second-worst xPTS (19.65), second-lowest xG (0.86 per game), and among the bottom six for xGA (1.45). Despite finishing 16th overall, they were flattered by the results. Their away attack failed to score in nine of 23 games and averaged just 0.83 goals per game.
Gary Caldwell has added some useful loan talent, but this is a fragile squad that struggled away from home throughout last season. Doncaster, with momentum, tactical clarity and home support, should have too much energy and quality. Against a side that offered little away from home and ended last season in relegation form, Doncaster are worthy favourites.
Best Bet: Doncaster to win at 10/11 with Ladbrokes
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