This weekend’s EFL slate offers three standout angles, each supported by convincing underlying data. Stockport County, Grimsby Town, and Exeter City all feature in matches where the metrics and recent performances combine to create clear betting value.
At Edgeley Park, Stockport host a struggling Blackpool side who sacked Steve Bruce earlier this week after taking only eight points from eleven matches, with the visitors yet to earn a point away from home. Stockport have been consistent at both ends and rarely involved in high-scoring contests.
In League Two, Grimsby look well positioned to extend their strong home record when they meet Colchester. The data is one-sided with the underlying gap between the sides producing a standout bet.
Finally, goals look likely when Exeter face Reading. Both teams have scored in most of Reading’s fixtures and the visitors’ defensive metrics remain weak. Exeter’s matches at St James Park tend to be open, with both sides regularly creating chances.
Three matches, three clear data-driven edges.
Stockport County vs Blackpool
Stockport County look well placed to take all three points when they host Blackpool, and the data supports a controlled home win with fewer than five goals in total.
Blackpool arrive in disarray after sacking Steve Bruce earlier this week. Their start to the season has been poor, taking only eight points from eleven games with a record of W2-D2-L7. Away from home they have lost all four, scoring just once and conceding nine.
That lack of attacking output has been mirrored by their underlying numbers. Across their last eight matches, Blackpool rank in the bottom four for xG ratio and non-penalty xG ratio, while their big chance differential and shot-in-box balance are among the worst in the division. They have averaged only 0.73 xG per game and allowed nearly double that figure.
Stockport’s form is far more stable. They sit inside the top eight and their recent home metrics have been strong, generating 1.18 xG for and only 1.15 xGA across the last eight while producing a positive open-play and touches-in-box ratio.
They have been particularly consistent at Edgeley Park, with a record of W2-D2-L1 and scoring at least once in every home fixture this season. Despite that, their matches tend to stay within range with none of their four home fixtures seeing four or more goals.
With Blackpool lacking confidence, creativity and leadership following Bruce’s dismissal, Stockport should have the structure and control to dictate the tempo. Their midfield data points to superiority in possession and territory, while Blackpool’s defensive record away from Bloomfield Road remains a major weakness.
A solid, professional home performance looks likely, with Stockport to win and under 4.5 goals combining good value with a realistic reflection of the current form and statistical trends.
- Best Bet: Stockport win & under 4.5 goals at 21/20 at Betway
Grimsby Town vs Colchester Utd
Grimsby are in a strong position to beat Colchester on Saturday, and the data backs this up from both home and away perspectives. At Blundell Park, Grimsby’s numbers are outstanding.
Their home xG sits at 1.80, while xGA is just 0.60, giving a goal differential of +1.20 and an xG ratio of 75 % which is the best home ratio in the league. Their shot-on-target numbers also dominate: 5.60 SOT for vs. 2.20 against (71.8 % ratio).
In shots inside the box (SiB), they log 11.00 for vs. 4.40 against, a ratio of 71.4 %. These figures point to a side that not only creates a lot but restricts quality chances for the opposition.
Colchester’s away data is much weaker. Their xG away is 0.76 while xGA is 2.18, giving them one of the worst away goal differentials (–1.42) and an xG ratio of only 25.9 %. Their SOT numbers reflect this weakness: 2.80 for vs. 5.20 against, with only 35 % in their favour.
In SiB away, they manage 3.80 attempts versus 9.80 conceded, a negative differential of –6.0 and ratio of only 27.9 %. In short, Colchester struggle to generate decent chances away and let the opposition dominate in the danger zone.
Beyond these numbers, Colchester’s defence is consistently penalised in big-chance terms: their last-four games show significant deficits in open-play xG, big-chance creation and conceding. Meanwhile, Grimsby’s form over recent matches shows a robustness and consistency that aligns with their superior metrics.
Their attack is balanced, their defence disciplined, and they dominate territory and chances at home.
Because Grimsby combine elite home supremacy across xG, shot volume and defensive control, while Colchester are among the worst away sides in every core metric, it is safe to project a Grimsby win on Saturday and likely by a clean, controlled score line.
- Best Bet: Grimsby win at 17/20 at Ladbrokes
Exeter City vs Reading
Both teams to score at Exeter looks one of the more reliable angles on this weekend’s League One card, with the data and recent performances pointing strongly towards goals at both ends.
Exeter’s campaign has been inconsistent, but their home matches remain high event. They average 1.66 xG for and 0.82 xGA across the season, while their last four have shown a clear attacking bias, with more than four shots on target per game and a positive set-piece xG balance. Defensively, though, they remain vulnerable.
Across their last eight fixtures they have averaged 0.75 xG for and 1.08 xGA, ranking bottom five in xG ratio and conceding in nine of their eleven league outings. They give up plenty inside the box and are yet to keep a clean sheet at home.
Reading’s profile makes this fixture even more attractive for both teams to score. Their matches have seen land both teams to score in 80% of games and their defensive issues remain obvious.
They have conceded in every away match so far and allow over 4.2 shots on target per game, with their last eight showing 1.12 xG for and 1.19 xGA. Despite that, they still carry enough attacking weight to find the net, ranking in the top eight for big chances created over the same span and averaging 13 shots per match.
Both sides lean heavily on open-play transitions and set-piece situations, producing high xG totals without control. Reading’s attacking movement should expose Exeter’s defence, while the hosts’ front line which is boosted by improved creativity at St James Park can punish a back four that continues to concede clear chances.
Given the numbers, style match-up, and both teams’ tendency to leave space, both teams to score feels a strong and repeatable outcome rather than a variance play. Everything points to both sides finding the net.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 8/11 with Ladbrokes
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