EFL Betting Tips

The EFL weekend offers up plenty of intriguing angles and the data points towards goals across a few standout fixtures. We kept the run going last weekend with one winner, one void and a very disappointing loss as Wrexham let a two-goal lead slip.

At Ewood Park, Blackburn host Norwich in a clash between two sides who have struggled defensively but still carry enough attacking threat to make a case for a high-scoring contest. Wrexham’s early Championship adventure has been chaotic, with every match producing goals at both ends, and their meeting with Millwall looks unlikely to buck the trend. Down in League Two, Tranmere put their unbeaten start on the line against a Notts County side who have been involved in end-to-end games all season. Across all three matches the underlying numbers, recent performances and style of play point in the same direction with goals are firmly on the cards.

Tranmere Rovers vs Notts County

Tranmere and Notts County meet at Prenton Park in a League Two clash that looks primed for goals at both ends. Tranmere come into the game unbeaten after four league matches, collecting eight points from a possible twelve. Their latest outing was a 2-0 victory away at Crawley, sealed by second-half goals from Nathan Smith and Omari Patrick. The score line looked comfortable, but Crawley carved out several first-half chances, forcing Luke McGee into action and even requiring a goal-line clearance. Tranmere were clinical, scoring with their first effort on target, but their underlying data highlights the danger of regression. They average only 0.65 non-penalty xG per game, bottom three in the division, and have created just two big chances. Yet they have scored eight goals, an efficiency difficult to sustain. Defensively, they concede 5.5 shots in the box and 2.25 shots on target per match, which better attacks should exploit.

Notts County arrive in contrast, with a season full of chaos. Their 2-2 draw with Bromley was the fourth time in five games both teams have scored. Matthew Dennis struck twice to reach four goals for the campaign, but slack defending allowed Bromley back in twice, including Idris Odutayo’s late strike. County have scored nine and conceded eight in five matches, with fixtures averaging 3.4 goals per game. They are strong going forward, producing 1.15 non-penalty xG, 4.8 shots on target and 5.8 shots in the box per game, while ranking fourth in the league for big chances created with six.

With Tranmere overperforming in attack and County consistently involved in high-event games, this match strongly points towards both teams finding the net.

Millwall vs Wrexham

Millwall host Wrexham at the New Den with both sides showing early-season trends that point strongly towards both teams finding the net. Wrexham have played three league games so far and all three have seen both sides score. They lost 2-1 at Southampton, were edged 3-2 by West Brom, and then shared a 2-2 draw with Sheffield Wednesday. That run underlines their strengths and weaknesses: they have scored in every outing but also conceded at least twice each time. Defensively they remain fragile, with no clean sheets and six big chances conceded already, but they create enough in attack to ensure they are always competitive.

Millwall arrive with a more balanced profile but two of their three matches have also delivered both teams to score. They began with a 2-1 win at Norwich, were beaten 3-0 at home by Middlesbrough, and ground out a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United. While they have managed one clean sheet, their underlying defensive data suggests vulnerability, with six shots in the box conceded per game and multiple big chances allowed.

The metrics back up the case. Wrexham’s games average more than three expected goals in total, reflecting their openness, while Millwall also give opponents opportunities. Wrexham’s style invites chaos and leaves space at both ends, while Millwall have shown they can score on the road but also be exposed. With both teams carrying threat but far from watertight, another game where each side finds the net looks highly likely.

  • Best Bet: Both teams to score at 10/11 with Betfred

Blackburn Rovers vs Norwich City

Blackburn and Norwich meet at Ewood Park with both sides showing early season traits that point strongly towards goals. Norwich have played three league games so far and all three have cleared the 2.5 goal line. They have scored in every outing but also conceded in each, underlining the attacking intent and defensive fragility that has been a hallmark under Liam Manning. Their non-penalty xG data shows a solid 1.30 created per match, but the real concern is at the other end where they are giving up 1.35, which places them among the weaker defences in the division.

Blackburn have been less consistent, but two of their three games have also gone over 2.5. Valerien Ismael’s side rank second-bottom for xPTS and are conceding an average of 1.58 non-penalty xG per game. They have allowed six big chances in their opening three fixtures, the most in the Championship, which highlights the risk of being picked apart by better attacks. At the same time, they do average eight shots in the box per match, meaning they should still create enough to contribute to the total.

The stylistic clash adds to the case. Norwich’s matches are naturally open, as they try to press high but often lose possession cheaply, leaving them exposed. Blackburn lack control in midfield and also concede chances in transition. With both managers demanding more consistency but struggling to find balance, the likelihood of another end-to-end game is high. Everything points towards at least three goals being scored.

  • Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Skybet

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