With the Championship kicking off this weekend and League One and League Two already underway, early trends are starting to emerge across the EFL. Crewe made a strong start in League Two, beating Salford 3-1 away with an eye-catching attacking performance that produced nearly 4.0 xG. Stockport also impressed, seeing off promotion favourites Bolton 2-0 in League One with a disciplined display that highlighted their defensive structure and set-piece threat. Accrington, by contrast, struggled to convince in a 1-1 home draw with Gillingham, creating little from open play and needing an own goal to take a point.
With one round of games in the books for the lower leagues and the Championship about to get going, there’s already value to be found in this weekend’s EFL betting markets.
Coventry City vs Hull City
Coventry look one of the more convincing bets on the opening weekend, with their home form and performance levels under Frank Lampard offering a clear edge. They won 10 of 14 home games after his arrival and backed it up with strong underlying numbers. Across that run, Coventry averaged 14.4 shots and 5.4 on target per match, while conceding just 3.3 at the other end. They created 24 big chances and allowed only 11, which speaks to a side in control of key moments as well as the overall flow of matches.
They were also consistent against weaker sides. Last season, they scored two or more goals in 13 of their 23 home games and went W9-D1-L2 against bottom-half teams at the CBS Arena. Their ability to break down lower-ranked opposition, particularly with their aggressive press and wide attacking play, makes them hard to oppose in this type of fixture.
Hull, by contrast, struggled away from home and were regularly flattered by the score line. They failed to score in nine of 23 away matches and averaged only 2.7 shots on target per game. More importantly, on xG they only came out on top in five away matches all season at Stoke, Oxford, Preston, Luton and Watford, none of whom finished higher than 14th. The 26 points they collected on the road painted a kinder picture than their underlying performance suggested.
With Hull still adjusting to squad changes and tactical tweaks, this feels like a difficult trip for them. Coventry are settled, well structured and effective at home. At odds of 1.80, the home win is supported by both data and match-up logic, and stands out as one of the stronger betting angles this weekend.
- Best Bet: Coventry win at 4/5 with 888 Sport
Wycombe Wanderers vs Stockport County
Stockport County +0.25 on the Asian Handicap looks a strong value bet heading into their trip to Wycombe. Dave Challinor’s side opened the season with a deserved 2-0 win over Bolton and arrive at Adams Park with momentum, a clear tactical identity, and one of the league’s most reliable away profiles.
Last season, Stockport took 35 points from 23 away games, conceding just 20 goals (0.87 per game) and finishing with the fifth best away record. Underlying numbers suggest they could have done even better: they ranked second for away xPTS (37.46), with strong metrics across the board — 1.22 xG, 0.88 xGA, and a 58.1% xG ratio. Their record away to top-10 sides was W5-D1-L3, and they rarely lost control, with 17 of 23 games finishing under 2.5 goals.
Wycombe’s home metrics from last season were excellent, but recent form tells a different story. They are winless in six (including play-offs), have scored just once in their last four, and were beaten 3-1 at home by Stockport in May. While their defensive process under Michael Dodds has been solid with only Birmingham conceded fewer shots in the box during his 17-game spell yet they created just 10 big chances and collected 25 points. Over that same stretch, Stockport ranked just above them in xPTS and carried a more reliable attacking threat.
Wycombe also lost at home to all of last season’s top four and struggled against stronger sides, winning just three home games against top-half teams of which two of those coming against 11th and 12th.
Stockport’s defensive discipline, consistent away form, and edge in recent meetings make them more than capable of avoiding defeat here. With the +0.25 Asian Handicap, you profit fully if they win and still make a half-win if the match ends level. For those brave punters taking Stockport on 0.0AH at 20/21 is worthwhile.
- Best Bet: Stockport +0.25AH 7/10 with 10Bet
Crewe Alexandra vs Accrington Stanley
Crewe look well placed to get the better of Accrington, with early-season form, squad quality, and recent data all pointing in their favour.
Lee Bell’s side opened their campaign with a dominant 3-1 win away at Salford, producing 22 shots, 10 on target, and 3.94 xG. It was a performance that highlighted both attacking intent and efficiency, with Crewe creating five big chances and showing strength from set pieces, where over half their xG came from. That attacking edge, combined with a settled core and a handful of exciting new additions, gives them momentum heading into their first home game.
By contrast, Accrington laboured to a 1-1 draw at home to Gillingham, scoring only via an own goal and managing just 0.69 xG from 10 shots — with only three on target. They offered very little in open play and lacked the attacking sharpness needed to break teams down consistently.
Away from home, Accrington’s data from last season was poor. They picked up just 24 points from 23 away games and had one of the league’s worst away xG ratios (37.9%). They conceded 1.80 xGA per game and gave up more big chances (19) than they created (13), underlining their defensive vulnerability on the road.
Crewe, meanwhile, were a solid home side last season and have strengthened over the summer. With the likes of Matus Holicek and Jack Lankester in midfield and Tommi O’Reilly adding creativity, they should have too much in the final third for a Stanley side still finding their rhythm.
Given Crewe’s strong start, Accrington’s away weaknesses, and the shot and xG profiles of both sides, the home win looks a smart play.
Best Bet: Crewe -0.25AH at 85/100 with William Hill
GambleAware