WE MAKE it through Christmas and face the beginning of the business end of the tourney. With the format extended to best of seven, picking out value is a little easier, as there is a fair chance for some outcomes to come in.
This is most likely the first time that the head to head of all three games are tied.
Order of play
- Ricky Evans (11/8) Vs Jamie Caven (8/11) – 1-1
- Dave Chisnall (1/5) Vs Christian Kist (17/4) – 2-2
- Gary Anderson (1/6) Vs Daryl Gurney (5/1) -2-2
Tricky Ricky toes the oche first after a remarkable comeback in round one taking out Simon Whitlock. Evans was within a leg of defeat before the a major turnaround. Evans produced a terrific comeback in a tie break to see Whitlock off in a twenty-seven leg classic. Evans got into a rhythm which produced nine maximums. Caven in his match had a considerably less stressful encounter seeing his game off conceding just two legs in a fine display.
Caven is given the nod by compilers, and those looking to oppose an odds on shot can look at Evans at 11/8 with Coral. Evans as stated has a particular rhythm, which can play devils advocate. Ricky is short to win the maximum count at 4/6, and this is because he can often rush the third dart, which can take this off course.
This game could the distance with their previous two encounters at the pro tour events heading to the final leg. There is no value in caven on the handicap, but evans is the same price as the maximum count with a set headstart. BetVictor are best 8/13 the game goes at least six sets. Similarly the leg market line is placed at 25 legs, which again is edged towards sets going the distance. The bookies have this covered also, which makes me turn back towards the maximum line. I am tempted to take on Evans, he is 4/6 with Boylesports but evens with Coral to win by more than one maximum. Caven is not the biggest maximum scorer and Evans after his supremacy against Whitlock will be full of confidence and think the even money price is about right, and worth taking on.
Recommendation
- Evans -1 180 Vs Caven – 1/1 Coral (3pts)
Chizzy takes on former BDO Champion Christian Kist, who made relatively light work of knocking Justin Pipe out at the first hurdle. Kist conceded just two legs in the process. Chisnall had a trickier game, although the score line of 3-0 suggested he won with ease, his opponent took each set to the final leg. The pricing of this is based around the tendencies of both players, with Chisnall far experienced on the big stage.
There is just as much of a case for a Chisnall to nil win which is 11/4 with Paddy Power. The same firm edge 4-1 as their favoured score line at 5/2. It is a general 7/2 for 4-2 and 13-2 for Chizzy to take the game to the distance. Again bookies are pro Chisnall for the game with all compilers odds on for the win minus 2.5 sets, so an allowance to drop one set. This line is covered.
A few firms are 2/5 for Chisnall to win the maximum market, and I agree. Kist is not a big hitter although is more than capable on his day. For 180 punters, they will need to rely on Chisnall winning the 180 line by three or more, but this is still odds on, so no price to surely consider. I do think Chisnall can win this, as Kist has not had the best of seasons, but can get the job done. Liking the total leg line, I am able totake on fewer than 24 legs in the game. Bwin are 11/13 for this and bare in mind Coral are just evens for the game to see no more than 21 legs, so a 2 leg difference.
Recommendation
- Under 23.5 legs – 11/13 Bwin (1pt)
The defending champion Gary Anderson takes on Daryl Gurney, where the flying Scotsman is as short at 1/6 to win the match. Interestingly the Irish thrower has won both encounters this year, including an epic last 16 clash at the players championship.
Daryl was in great class that day and carried forward his form to beat Jamie Lewis in round one. The game saw five maximums from the young hotshot. Anderson has achieved the dream, and that was to win the big title, which he did last year.
The bookies are pro Anderson in their pricing, which means having to take on the Irish thrower to extract any value from this. Gurney is 6/5 with a two set head start, meaning he will need to pull a mini run together, hold his nerve to secure the set and do this twice. For those thinking Anderson will not lose this, but Gurney can win a couple of sets, Bet 365 are 6/4 on six or seven sets.
Recommendation
- Over 5.5 sets – 6/4 Bet365 (1pt)
