THE finals are upon us and the top four in the world all qualified for final night. Interestingly 1st in the world will play 4th and 2nd vs 3rd!
MVG is the overwhelming favourite to win the premier league third time lucky after losing in the final in the last two years!
MVG is 8/13 with Skybet, with Phil Taylor at 9/2, Gary Anderson at 11/2 and Adrian Lewis the outsider at 12/1. It was two years ago when Raymond van Barneveld won the Premier League at a BIG 25/1! Our ante-post bet on MVG to hit the most 180s is in a good position sitting ten ahead of nearest rival Phil Taylor, fourteen ahead of Anderson and twenty-four ahead of opponent Adrian Lewis.
Michael van Gerwen Vs Adrian Lewis
Michael leads 18-9
The flying Dutchman is a HUGE favourite coming into this at 1/5 with the majority of firms and Lewis out 4/1. MVG has won all of the last five spanning back over a year. The last time Lewis defeated MVG was in the Premier League towards the end of the last campaign.
The two meetings in this year’s competition was won 7-5 and 7-4 by MVG respectively. Michael will have his sights firmly on the title, after Adrian Lewis saw off Gary Anderson last week, only to possibly have endured distractions along the way. With speculative stories surfacing in the news last week, Lewis has had issues to deal with in the last week with another opponent. Both players went to the European Tour event over the weekend, with MVG’s streak being broken by James Wade. Lewis did not progress as far losing out to Jelle Klassen in an earlier stage of the competition.
MVG having powered past Lewis in previous meetings will be well backed by some punters on the handicap, although in MVG’s mind, the longer the first game goes on may drain either player come the final. No dis-credit to Lewis but his strategy is simple, get in front and stay in front. Both are competent in the high checkout stakes and the overall checkout line is placed between 130.5-135.50 at the usual 5/6-10/11 prices although two firms take evens on less than 135 with 888sport and Unibet.
The best value on this could be the Lewis checkout line, although has been vastly reduced to reflect the handicap given to him in legs. Betfred and Paddy Power punt 5/6 either way at the 102.50 line, whereas the MVG checkout line is as high as 128.50.
Comparing the checkout line overall to the individual lines, there is some disparity to the lines we usually see between the individual and highest overall line.
On the maximum line, in the round robin phase, MVG won the 180 count on both occasions with an aggregate total of 6-4. MVG is well covered at 8/13 with Skybet to hit the most 180s with the same firm 10/11 on MVG winning by two or more. Over the longer format, this could be the direction of the bet. Lewis’s maximum hitting has tailed off more so in the last year, being more reliant on a high checkout. Depending on the preparations of Lewis for this, if he begins to lose sight of MVG this count could be won by at least three or more.
Recommendation:
- MVG -1 (or 1.5) 180s – 10/11 Coral and Skybet 4pts
Phil Taylor Vs Gary Anderson
Phil leads 35-13
Will Gary Anderson seize the day in retaining his coveted Premier League title? Taylor did the double over Anderson in the regular season winning 7-3 and 7-4 which dominated his top spot for much of the season until the latter stages. Even since Gary took out Phil in the 2015 World Championship including this has only seen five victories in thirteen attempts over Taylor losing five of the last six meetings spanning back to the end of June 2015.
Bookies have Taylor the marginal favourite at 5/6 with Sportingbet with BetVictor at 6/5 for the flying Scotsman. Anderson’s head at the moment has resulted in a week mourning the anniversary of his father’s death, was outplayed by Lewis last week followed by a hiding from Wade at the European Tour event last weekend.
I find it difficult to pick- a winner here with the emotional factor of Anderson coupled with the loss of £25K last week for Phil Taylor in a winner takes all showdown with rival Michael van Gerwen.
The only bet I do fancy, although against the stats is for no maximum in the first leg. I will stress that this did happen in both league meetings but at even money in places for a maximum in the opening leg versus an outcome not to happen is surely worth opposing on the basis the bet is based on ability and accuracy. In addition, if you do not believe in the law of averages this bet is not for you, but at 4/5 for no first leg 180 with everything at stake – I’ll take that under the circumstances.
Recommendation
- NO 180 1st leg – 4/5 Betway – 2pts
