Hull City v Derby County
EFL Cup, Aug 28, 7.45pm KO
HULL entertain Derby in the EFL Cup with the ” rematch ” in the league coming in just five days.
Hull beat Derby 3-0 in the play-off semis under Steve Bruce. The reverse fixture saw Derby have 2 in the bag inside the first 25 minutes in Hull and the kitchen sink was thrown at them for 90 minutes.
It wasn't a case of if Derby would score but when. Somehow, Hull shut Derby out while camped in their own third to see a 3-2 aggregate win. Season was 2016/17 but Hull never went up in the play-offs.
Hull have an OK set of results at Derby but are terrible when they face us on their turf. Last season we beat them 5-0 at home and drew 0-0 away.
Hull have beaten us once at home (2-1) in 2013 and aside from the play-off result that's it.
Last year we signed their best defender Curtis Davies and midfielder Tom Huddlestone, this year they've got rid of Hernandez and their goalscoring ability has been hit heavily.
Derby have sold Vydra but the goals have started to come mainly from midfield and the 2 wide players.
Straight after the Leeds defeat I kinda hit the panic button due to the gaffer wanting to play 4-3-3. Since then we beat Oldham away 2-0 in the league then slipped on a banana away to Millwall losing 2-1 despite dominating.
We've now backed that up with 2 steadily improving 2-0 home wins to Ipswich and Preston. We got a first-half goal against Preston but the general play for the Rams seems to be to pile on the pressure in the second half.
Hull, Reading and QPR are in danger of shedding their managers but from the perspective of the Rams what a difference a week makes. We've gone from a dreadful league start to the best league start since 2011-12.
It is clear Frank Lampard's philosophy is starting to work, we're getting some better football in the first half but the second half is where most of our game play is happening. Our first half still needs some more urgency but it is improving.
Derby will look to this game for momentum and freshen up the side with a few players who haven't seen much league action yet.
While we've some players out we others like Anya/Martin/Thorne who got another 90 minutes under their belts with a 1-0 win away to Chelsea in the U23s.
Some teams know how to play against some teams and Derby have had that luxury at Hull for a long time. We've signed 9 new players, some have barely figured, but those few should see some time on the pitch tonight.
The gaffer is still fine-tuning but he's figured out maybe 7 or 8 of our best 11. We have enough options to make 4 or 5 changes without upsetting too much of the momentum but tonight's game is a dry run for this exact same fixture but in the league just 5 days away.
Hull seem a bit of a mess and toothless up front. They'd take a win at any cost (in the league) but this is a cup fixture, there's no replay or extra time. Surely, the winner tonight will have that extra 5-10% to take into Saturday's game.
The momentum is with Derby and I think the 8-5 for a win (marginal favourites) is a gift. I expect Derby to get the job done tonight and then do the same with an enhanced side in 5 days time.
A win tonight and your potential £80+ from a £10 double compared to a safe pair of singles will see a potential payday drop to around £60. Derby's price will fall if we win tonight.
It's a bit of a slow burner, it ties up your cash for 5 days but I think it is a viable and juicy double. If you're looking to add a little extra bang for your buck bolt on Leeds to beat Preston.
Leeds will have one eye on staying in the chase for the top slot and much like Derby's historical bad patch of February/March, Leeds usually hit that in September. So they'll want momentum. I'm sure they'll make changes, so will Preston, but they won't make that many.
The treble pays around 12/1 with most bookies. It's got to be worth a tenner of anybody's money.
Derby have been a bit slow starting in the first half but are improving so it might be possible to hold on for 10 mins and then place your bet but that's your call. I'll be putting mine down before team news which I will share at 6.45pm.
I'd appreciate your thoughts guys, in particular from the usual suspects.
- Derby win (123-100, Marathonbet – tonight)
- Derby win (46-25, Marathonbet – Saturday)
- Derby to win both games (6.33-1, Marathonbet)
- Derby both games, Leeds to win tonight
- (12.22-1, Marathonbet)