MAN CITY (1.26) may have finally lost their remaining grip on their Premier League crown but can get back to winning ways when West Ham visit the Etihad for Saturday’s early kick-off.
Roberto Mancini’s team have had no trouble in dealing with the sides outside of the top seven on home turf, winning all 10 games while scoring 26 and conceding just three.
The Hammers have crept into 10th place on the back of five matches unbeaten but have previously lost all four away games to sides in the running for Champions League football.
Any hopes Everton (1.46) had of featuring in Europe’s stellar competition may have evaporated but they can consolidate their position in sixth place by doing what they do best – beating Fulham at Goodison.
This weekend’s fixture features the longest-running 100 per cent record in the Premier League history with the Toffees having won all 11 of the Cottagers’ visits since they won promotion in 2001, including David Moyes’ first game in charge 11 years ago. In total, it’s 24 away visits to Everton that the West London club have failed to win.
The other club from SW6, Chelsea (1.34), will clock up their 63rd competitive match of the season against Swansea but we don’t expect the Welsh outfit to take advantage.
The Swans were superb 2-0 winners at Stamford Bridge in the first leg of their Capital One Cup semi-final in January but having gone on to win that tournament and secure a European berth they are finishing the campaign with a whimper. They’re without a victory since the beginning of March while Rafa Benitez’s team have won their previous five in front of their own fans.
Paris Saint-Germain (1.66) can move to within one win of the Ligue Un title on Sunday because we don’t anticipate Evian holding them up in their pursuit of a first championship success since 1994. The league leaders thumped the Gaillard club 4-0 at home back in December and come into this encounter on the back of four straight successes without conceding a goal. Pascal Dupraz’s strugglers sit just one point outside the relegation zone after a run of three wins in 16 matches.
In Serie A, we’re backing the division’s top three to clock up further victories this weekend starting with Napoli (1.32) on Saturday evening when they head to bottom-of-the-table Pescara.
The second-placed Naples outfit have won four and drawn one of their last five outings and put five past their next opponents in the reverse fixture four months ago. Meanwhile, the Delfini look to be heading for an immediate return to Serie B, having lost 12 of the previous 14, including their last six at Stadio Adriatico,
Three points for Napoli would mean Juventus (1.64) would be unable to secure a second successive Scudetto on matchday 34 but that doesn’t mean that the Old Lady won’t be doing everything possible to take the honours in the Turin derby.
Antonio Conte takes his team back to their old stomping ground, the Stadio Olimpico, on the back of six wins in a row while their city rivals, Torino, have only one win to show for the last eight games in which they have conceded 21 goals.
Third-placed AC Milan (1.35) will be eager to maintain their hold on Italy’s third Champions League place by ending a spell of three matches without success and they should get back on track against Catania at the San Siro, where they are unbeaten in nine.
The Rossoneri will welcome Mario Balotelli back from suspension, making the task of visitors who have won just once in seven games even harder. Rolando Maran’s men have yet to taste success away at any side in the top half.
Finish off with Barcelona (1.62), who could land the La Liga title this weekend if Real Madrid are beaten at rivals Atletico Madrid later on Saturday night.
Barca may have been in gruelling midweek Champions League action but should still be too strong for an Athletic Bilbao side who haven’t come close to hitting their highs of last season. Marcelo Bielsa’s team are languishing in the bottom half and have lost five of their last eight home games, in what is their last season at San Mamés.
Banker Bundle
Man City to beat West Ham 12.45 sat
Everton to beat Fulham 3.0 sat
Chelsea to beat Swansea 3.0 sun
PSG to beat Evian 8.0 sun
Napoli to beat Pescara 7.45 sat
Juventus to beat Torino 2.0 sun
AC Milan to beat Catania 7.45 sun
Barcelona to beat Athletic Bilbao 5.0 sat
PAYS 19.95
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
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The race for Champions League places takes centre stage now that Manchester United have completed the formality of regaining their Premier League crown and we’re backing Tottenham (2.00) to take full advantage of a favourable schedule this weekend by picking up maximum points at Wigan on Saturday.
With only four rounds of regular fixtures and one rearranged head-to-head remaining, the order of appearance takes on increasing importance and it suits the Lilywhites to be up first as they look to build on last Sunday’s morale-boosting late turnaround against Manchester City.
Wigan, by contrast, have all manner of psychological barriers to overcome. As if the strange mental imbalance of joy and despair from fighting relegation alongside an exhilirating FA Cup journey isn’t disorientating enough, a sizeable gap has now opened up between themselves and all of the other contenders in action on Saturday.
Wins for Norwich, Stoke and Sunderland last weekend were nothing short of disastrous for the Latics, leaving them at least six points adrift of all but Aston Villa with five games remaining. Now it’s time for them to force the issue, draws are no good and the level of desperation in the home ranks should leave sufficient gaps for the visitors to profit.
It’s now or never for Nottingham Forest (2.19) as the squabble for the three remaining Championship play-off berths nears its conclusion and, with a surge of purpose to suit their position, we reckon the Reds will be too strong for a docile Millwall side that has probably already done enough to escape the drop.
After a blistering sequence of six straight wins upon the return of Billy Davies, Forest have stalled since Easter, failing to win any of their last six outings amid rising expectations. But now it’s crunch time and we fully expect the ever-meticulous Glaswegian to issue his troops with a blueprint for victory when it matters most.
So knockout football starts a fortnight early and there are few teams you’d rather come up against for what is effectively a semi-final than a Millwall side on 55 points with four defeats in the last five outings, including a couple of languid displays against bottom six opposition in the aftermath of their FA Cup semi-final disappointment against Wigan.
Doncaster blew their chance to secure automatic promotion from League One last weekend and, as much as Brian Flynn uses his wealth of experience to calm his players’ nerves ahead of their final-day decider with Brentford (1.92), we reckon the reality of what they’ve squandered will weigh heavily on the Yorkshire club at Griffin Park.
From both a tactical and a psychological perspective, the situation for the Londoners is clear-cut. They know exactly what they have to do, whereas the visitors must juggle with a stick-or-twist conundrum at various points in the contest. Are they driven by a desire to put the issue to bed, or do invest their emotional energy into protecting the two-point advantage they currently have?
Either way, we’d expect Brentford to dominate this fixture under any circumstances and it’s hard to imagine them not spending prolonged periods of this game camped in the visitors’ half while that second automatic spot remains in Rovers’ possession.
For the past three years in succession, Barnet have escaped relegation with a momentous victory on the final day but they might have diced with death once too often when they travel to Northampton (2.42) on Saturday because we don’t rate their chances of pulling off a last-ditch Houdini act at Sixfields.
The Bees should expect few favours from Northampton. They were walloped 4-0 in Davids’ first game at the helm back in October, a result that left Aidy Boothroyd with egg on his face after he expressed his disapproval at the treatment of Mark Robson. So although revenge in this instance might be disproportionate, we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility that the Cobblers will be driven on by the memory of their lowest point of 2012/13.
Besides, the hosts have their own tangible incentives. If they pick up maximum points from this game and fifth-placed Burton lose to champions Gillingham, then Northampton will benefit from home advantage in the return leg of a play-off semi-final against the Brewers. Given that the two teams boast the best home records in the division (16 wins apiece from 22 matches), that’s not a target to be sniffed at.
MILESEY’s Multiple:
•Tottenham to beat Wigan
•Nott’m Forest to beat Millwall
•Brentford to beat Doncaster
•Northampton to beat Barnet
PAYS 20.40
Milesey
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MILESEY’s GOALSCORER GAMBLE
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The first match to keep an eye on this weekend is at the DW Stadium and we’re choosing the fit-again winger Gareth Bale (1.86). The Welshman wasted no time getting back on the scoresheet after returning from injury last weekend, notching the third and final Tottenham goal in a superb 3-1 victory at home to Manchester City. Bale had missed the previous couple of matches with an ankle problem, but the strike took him clear of Michu and into third place of the Premier League’s top goalscorers.
The 23-year-old has now taken his Spurs tally for the season to 23, 18 of which have come in league action, while he has scored three in his last four outings for club and country. On Saturday afternoon, Andre Villas-Boas’ side visit Wigan, who are three points adrift of safety in the final relegation spot. Only two sides have conceded more than the Latics over the course of this Premier League campaign, while they have let in at least two goals in nine of their 17 away league fixtures this season.
The second name we’ll pick out for this weekend’s action is the inevitable winner of the Premier League Golden Boot award, Robin van Persie (2.40). The Manchester United frontman netted a hat-trick as The Red Devils clinched the title with a 3-0 victory at home to struggling Aston Villa on Monday evening. The treble took his tally for the league campaign to 24, and with his nearest rival Luis Suarez (with 23 goals) now banned for ten matches, it would take some effort from someone else to catch the Dutchman.
The 29-year-old has now netted in each of his last three outings in a United shirt, after scoring at Stoke and West Ham in the last fortnight. If you include cup competitions, van Persie has found the target a total of 28 times this term, and proving to be worth the £20million transfer fee Alex Ferguson decided to splash out last summer. He arrived at Old Trafford from Arsenal, and it is the Gunners that United visit on Sunday afternoon, and regular readers know how keen we are to side with players visiting their former employers.
The third selection for this weekend’s action is Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke (2.10) who, despite drawing blanks in his last two outings over the previous seven days, has had a spectacular debut season in England. Before the last pair of matches, the Belgian powerhouse had netted a goal in four consecutive Premier League appearances, taking his tally in the competition to 15 since arriving from Genk.
The Villans are still in relegation trouble, sitting in 17th place and only three points clear of the bottom three, but on Monday night they host a Sunderland side just three points above them, and have a huge opportunity to boost their survival hopes. The 22-year-old striker will undoubtedly be the spearhead of Paul Lambert’s tactics for the fixture, and could be in for a profitable 90 minutes against a Black Cats defence that has conceded at least twice in seven of their last eight away days.
treble:
•Gareth Bale, Tottenham (v Wigan)
•Robin van Persie, Man Utd (v Arsenal)
•Christian Benteke, Aston Villa (v Sunderland)
PAYS 9.42
Milesey
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MILESEY’s BTTS
Tottenham have overtaken Everton as the Both Teams to Score kings of late but, at the prices, both sides are swerved this week. Instead, we start off at St James’ Park when Newcastle and Liverpool will battle it out to see who can avoid having the more disappointing league campaign.
The Reds are, of course, without their main marksman, but the absence of Luis Suarez may actually help their goal-scoring chances on Saturday. The perceived injustice of a ten-match ban is certain to draw the team closer together and, with the home crowd still fretting slightly about their Premier League status, nerves at the back may well play a part.
Newcastle, themselves, are no slouches going forward, and although Liverpool have kept four clean sheets away from Anfield this season, it’s worth noting that three of those came at the sides currently entrenched in the relegation zone.
With just two games remaining, the Championship is possibly the tightest table of modern times as only three of the current 24 sides are certain to be playing in the same tier next season. David Coleman was always a very big fan of going to Peterborough, and he is not the only one excited about a trip there because their humungous relegation six-pointer with Sheffield Wednesday this weekend is fascinating and goals appear inevitable.
Pictures from London Road are always very fuzzy on Soccer Saturday, but not fuzzy enough to hide the blushes of that bloke you always see behind whichever pundit Sky have sent to cover the Posh. At one point, Peterborough were the first banker on any BTTS coupon and, although they are not quite such good things these days, a game like this one, where the side that goes behind is going to be absolutely desperate for an equaliser, is a must-include.
On to Sunday, and goals look in store at the Emirates in a fixture between two sides that are the best in the country based on 2013 form. For all the noises about being professional and determined to win every game, will Manchester United really be able to give this game as much attention to detail and focus as they normally do?
Arsenal have a woeful record against the big teams this season, but I really fancy them here. However, I still have misgivings about their defence and a lovely 3-2 scoreline either way will do the job perfectly.
Regular readers will not be surprised by the last match. Two words – Aston Villa; the team that are great going forward and absolutely horrible at the back.
Sunderland are a different proposition under Paolo Di Canio with tactics, energy and attacking intent. I make their encounter the Both Teams To Score banker of the weekend, so hopefully we will have a nice few quid running on by the time Monday comes around!
MILESEY’s BTTS
•Newcastle v Liverpool
•Peterborough v Sheff Wed
•Arsenal v Man Utd
•Aston Villa v Sunderland
PAYS 7.00
Milesey
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MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM – 12:45 K/O
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The best betting value in Saturday’s early kick-off between Manchester City and West Ham United…
We’re focusing on action down at the Etihad Stadium – as a disappointed Manchester City side host West Ham United in the north west, looking to take a morale-boosting maximum points.
The Blues’ fate was finally sealed on Monday night, as rivals Manchester United were named Barclays Premier League Champions for the 20th time – and that will have hit Roberto Mancini’s side hard.
But the hosts must put that knock behind them as they welcome their East London opponents, and look to secure their 10th win from 11 home outings.
Mancini will also have one eye on the looming FA Cup Final with Wigan in May – and will be keen for his charges to take some real confidence and momentum into that tie.
The visitors travel up the M1 in miserable form on the road – and just one win from their last 13 away from Upton Park leaves the Hammers sitting 10th in the division, which is a shame, as their home results are probably deserving of a higher finish.
Indeed, just one loss from seven on their own patch shows just how Jekyll and Hyde Sam Allardyce’s side have been this campaign – and that is an Achilles heel that the away boss will be keen to correct for next year.
Manchester City Clean Sheet
A quick glance at recent results tells no lies – City’s defence has been outstanding in Manchester of late. In fact, Mancini’s side could secure their 10th clean sheet from a dozen home outings in this clash.
That is testament to the home side’s incredible strength in depth at the back, where Roberto Mancini has been able to call on the likes of Matija Nastasic and Kolo Toure to drop into the heart of defence alongside Vincent Kompany and Joleon Lescott.
Add to that the barren attacking form of the visitors, and a clean sheet for the home side looks a real value bet.
The Hammers have only managed nine goals in their last 16 top-tier clashes with their weekend opponents, and have never notched more than one in that time.
Misfiring forwards cost West Ham dearly in the reverse fixture of this game earlier in the campaign – and Allardyce’s side didn’t manage a single shot on target that day, giving City keeper Joe Hart one of his easier days at the office.
I think that there is real value in the 2.06 available on Manchester City to come away from this encounter without a blot on their copybook.
First Goalscorer
In any encounter featuring the hosts, there’s never a shortage of viable options for first goalscorer. Carlos Tevez is probably the obvious choice at the moment – and the Argentinian is certainly in something of a purple patch having gotten the ball rolling in his last three appearances, and notched five in his last seven on home turf.
He is priced at a short 4.2 to break the deadlock, with only his fellow countryman Sergio Aguero getting more attention from punters, at 4.1.
Samir Nasri is available at a much more reasonable 8.0 – and with two goals in his last three games, could be worth a back to notch from deep.
The visitors’ Andy Carroll will be full of confidence ahead of this clash – and having bagged four times in the past, the big Geordie has scored more goals against the Blues than any other Premier League opponent.
If you fancy him to be first on the scoresheet, he’s 14.0 to do so – and that’s not bad value at all, as, if the away side are to offer any threat in the final third, the likelihood is that it will come through Carroll.
Manchester City Half Time/Full Time
I reckon that the dethroned champions will be desperate to put in a positive performance in this game – and I expect them to come flying out of the traps right from kick off.
A bet on the Blues to be winning at both half time and full time would’ve paid out in nine of their last 14 home wins, and with the likelihood being that West Ham will set up to defend in this clash, the home side will have plenty of space to play in front of their rearguard.
West Ham have struggled defensively of late – and have kept just two clean sheets in 10 on the road. Of the last 11 games where they have conceded away from home, they have shipped at least one goal in the first half on nine occasions.
odds for Mancini’s side to go in happy after both 45 and 90 mins are a reasonable 1.84 – and that’s decent value considering that the visitors are unlikely to offer much threat in the final third.
Recommended Bets
Manchester City Clean Sheet @ 2.06
Samir Nasri First Goalscorer @ 8.0
Manchester City HT/FT @ 1.84
Milesey
( Betfair )
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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River Plate v Quilmes AC
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River Plate have had a little wobble, but Lanús’s spate of draws and Newell’s battling on both fronts has allowed them back in to the title race.
Just two points off the joint-leaders, Ramón Diaz’s men are most certainly in with a shout, and can consider themselves lucky that their notoriously fruitful academy has chucked another gem off the conveyor belt.
An enormous list of injuries, and long-term ones at that, in defence had threatened to derail River’s season but instead it could end in another financial boost for the club.
Centre-back Éder Balanta is just 20 but plays with a maturity far beyond his years. The Colombian is also an incredible physical specimen; fit, strong and quick off the mark, enabling him to deal with virtually everything the Argentine Primera has to throw at him.
Two man of the match performances in just three starts for the club speaks volumes about how key he has been, and is especially impressive when you consider that River’s defensive shield – and Argentine international midfielder – Leonardo Ponzio has been out injured too.
Quilmes, their visitors this week, have had injury problems of their own. Long-term absentee Miguel Caneo was their key playmaker last season, but despite being welcomed back recently after a lengthly spell on the sidelines, he has quickly experienced a recurrence of his injury and won’t feature this weekend.
Martin Cauteruccio’s goals still manage to keep the Brewers in contention but a dip in form has seen them slink into mid-table and a respectable position and adding to their total in the average points (relegation) table is what yo-yoing Quilmes must now focus on.
The visitors will have been disappointed to see River exit the Copa Argentina in embarrassing circumstances in midweek, and they now must face a slightly angered giant, keen to reassert their dominance on the pitch and push the top two.
Match odds
River are understandable odds-on favourites based on form and the wealth of talent at their disposal, while Quilmes would undoubtedly be content with a point.
This weekend more than others it is worth considering what effect future fixtures will have on the game. Sometimes cited as a weakness, it is very much up for debate how much impact the looming Superclasico will have on players.
On one hand, all River players will be concerned about getting injured ahead of the big game at La Bombonera next weekend? but at the same time, it is important to put in a performance if you want to be starting in the biggest game of the year – and for this game we are not foreseeing it as an issue.
Therefore, we are backing River at 1.84.
Goals
Quilmes’ games have one of the highest goal averages in the league, with 2.9 goals per game and seven of their matches going over 2.5.
River have been more unpredictable, with their games averaging 2.2, but the price of 2.42 for over 2.5 goals seems to suggest this game is a cut and dried low-scorer.
The stats don’t agree and therefore the value lies in the overs.
Other bets
River’s lineup for this game looks very impressive, and with Quilmes missing some key names you have to be backing the hosts, but there is also half an eye on Draw/River in the HT/FT market.
The Millionarios have led at half time in just one of their last six, so 4.7 for them to overcome a stalemate at the break and take all three points looks like value.
Recommended Bets
Recommended bet: Back River to win @ 1.84
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Milesey
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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River Plate v Quilmes AC
sorry this game doesn’t kick off till quartre past midnight sunday night.
Milesey
Banker Bundle
Man City to beat West Ham 12.45 sat
Everton to beat Fulham 3.0 sat
Chelsea to beat Swansea 3.0 sun
PSG to beat Evian 8.0 sun
Napoli to beat Pescara 7.45 sat
Juventus to beat Torino 2.0 sun
AC Milan to beat Catania 7.45 sun
Barcelona to beat Athletic Bilbao 5.0 sat
PAYS 19.95
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MILESEY’s Multiple:
•Tottenham to beat Wigan
•Nott’m Forest to beat Millwall
•Brentford to beat Doncaster
•Northampton to beat Barnet
PAYS 20.40
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GOALSCORER GAMBLE treble:
•Gareth Bale, Tottenham (v Wigan)
•Robin van Persie, Man Utd (v Arsenal)
•Christian Benteke, Aston Villa (v Sunderland)
PAYS 9.42
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MILESEY’s BTTS
•Newcastle v Liverpool
•Peterborough v Sheff Wed
•Arsenal v Man Utd
•Aston Villa v Sunderland
PAYS 7.00
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MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM
Manchester City Clean Sheet @ 2.06
Samir Nasri First Goalscorer @ 8.0
Manchester City HT/FT @ 1.84
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Peterborough v Sheffield Wednesday
Back under 2.5 Goals at 2.0
Back 1-1 correct score at 7.4
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ATLETICO MADRID v REAL MADRID
Atletico Madrid @ 2.80
Atletico/Draw double chance @ 1.55
Falcao anytime goalscorer @ 2.30
3:1 Correct score @ 29.00
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MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
Back Plymouth @ 3.1
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Milesey
GOLF BETS LATEST…………………………..
AFTER SECOND ROUND………….
The Zurich Classic – LEADER -12
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2nd Boo Weekley @ 90.0 -11
T24 Graham DeLaet @ 85.0 -5
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Camilo Villegas @ 67.0 +1 ** CUT **
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.0 +2
John Rollins @ 71.0 +6
AFTER THIRD ROUND………………………..
The Ballantine’s Championship – LEADER -8
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T20 Gregory Havret @ 160.0 -3
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Gareth Maybin @ 160.0 +2 ** CUT **
Andreas Harto @ 230.00 +6
Milesey
Anyone following the golf bets, then it’s time to LAY for instant profit :
The Zurich Classic – LEADER -12
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2nd Boo Weekley @ 90.0 -11
Can now LAY @ 6.2 after backing him @ 90.0, some nice profit for the day, or trade the bet now :) , depending on how confident you feel, either go back in with another back @ 6.0 or bank the whole profit, i have banked half and gone in again @ 6.0 on Boo, for he looks to be in great form.
Milesey
I got a great good turn last week backing bankers (mainly from Greek Leagues) so I like this thread,
Barca at 4/6 are worth a bet surely? although licking their wounds from Tuesday, dont often get this price for them in La Liga games.
Hi guys.
I started betting only a couple of months ago. Been making bets almost only singles on 1×2 and over/under. Since I found this site I tried a couple of you multiple tips and also some other bets like goalscorer,…
I just have a question. This tip you gave has 8 matches and that’s terribly hard to get right. Should we bet small amounts on these type of tips, like 1 pound or euro?
Also, I tended to bet always the same amount (a % of my bankroll) in all my bets. Should I bet more on singles (super single) and less on multiples?
Thank you for your great tips and advice.
Duarte
I personally have a tenner on it, i wouldn’t chuck big money on anything above a double, for there is always one, a majority of the time that lets you down, hopefully spreading the games around abit, over 2 days, different leagues, in reality is a better way of going about things then trying to get 8 teams up on an accum on a saturday in purely just the english leagues.
Milesey
Duarte, I think Milesey’s just putting up something different and I might throw a fiver or a tenner at it. We never advise doing too many selections as you know. As far as your bankroll is concerned you should vary the stake to the degree of confidence you have about the selection and also the price. For example go smaller on a 2-1 shot, bigger if it’s evens. A lot is down to opinion, I’ll stake bigger if I feel happy about the game or team. Finally, where possible bet on singles but that’s not for everyone.
People like the accums, and this is the strongest as it will get this weekend if you just have a fiver or a tenner. I’ll have a tenner on it, for i’ve never posted a tip on this site without having something on it…. may just come in ;) ;)
Milesey
Christ O mighty Milesey I thought I enjoyed gambling you must have some amount of bets through out the day even if I was on your level at a sports betting capacity I still couldn’t follow all my tips lol
Danny, yeah and only half have been posted. We need a full-time carer for Milesey to be honest but all his other tips can be found in the comments section. Right, no Bankies game today so heading out into the sunshine with a boy and a dug for a walk, lunch, trip to bookies for a little wager on that new Hills coupon, etc. Will check in before 3pm. Good luck everyone with all your bets.
I always have something on, sometimes just small amounts, sometimes big on my horses, i don’t follow them alday long, i just put them on and check my betting account that night and see what won, what didn’t, i follow my big bets though, for they are mainly on the horses, plus inplay bets, and exchange backs/lays, not alot of time weekends though for the exchange, although just laying some of my golf bet now…… then stevenage v mk dons for me today ;)
Milesey
Milesey, enjoy the game and then enjoy your Saturdays with no game. Our season finishes on Wednesday so it will be a long brek.
Thanks for the reply.
Here’s to a good day of betting. ;)
IPL CRICKET – 11:30 ITV 4
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Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Rajasthan Royals
Following defeats to RCB and Chennai, Rajasthan have slipped to fourth place in the points table, albeit with a game in hand. While there’s no disgrace in losing to those heavyweight sides, the latter defeat did expose their limitations. A superb 185 total emphasised the depth of their batting line-up, but a lightweight bowling attack couldn’t defend it. The obvious conclusion to draw is that Royals are more effective when chasing, once the likes of Watson, Dravid and Hodge know exactly what is required.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Similarly, these early pace-setters slipped to third place after failing to defend a total against that awesome CSK batting line-up on Thursday, but there was still some good news as Shikhar Dhawan returned in style to top-score with 63 not out after missing the opening fortnight. One of Indian cricket’s emerging superstars, Dhawan carried this side last year and his absence left them too dependent on a classy bowling attack led by Dale Steyn and Amit Mishra. Add powerful all-rounders Thisara Perera and Darren Sammy into the mix and you now have a line-up perfectly geared towards T20 cricket. Given a prominent position in the table already, Sunrisers look under-estimated in the outright market at odds of 14.0.
First Innings Runs
Unless early wickets fall, Jaipur is generally a good pitch for batting. Only two of the last 11 first innings in IPL here produced scores below 140, whereas 170 was reached five times, which is more than most grounds. Rajasthan’s strength is batting and Sunrisers should improve in that regard with Dhawan back, so I’ll be looking to back 150 or more at 1.75 or better.
Match odds
Given relatively one-sided odds, Sunrisers must rate the bet at 2.4. That is usually a good trading price about any team in IPL and the visitors seem to be unfairly judged on this team’s dire performances last year under the guise of Deccan Chargers. With Dhawan back, Hyderabad are a threat to all as tournament favourites CSK nearly found to their cost on Thursday.
Top Rajasthan batsman
With Dale Steyn presenting a formidable threat with the new ball, it may be harder than usual for Shane Watson and Ajinkya Rahane to get the Rajasthan innings off to a flier. Brad Hodge is enjoying a fine IPL, topping his side’s averages with 46 despite a disadvantageous middle-order position. At around 6.0, the Aussie finisher is fair value to continue his good work.
Top Hyderabad batsman
One could make a case for numerous big-hitting all-rounders in this line-up, but on both past and recent IPL form, Sunrisers’ fate hinges most on Shikhar Dhawan. Whereas none of his team-mates average more than 27 this season, he hit 63 not out on his first start and was the third highest scorer in last year’s IPL. You won’t go too far wrong backing this flamboyant opener at 3.8 for every Sunrisers match.
Recommended bet
Back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 2.4
Milesey
( betfair )
Mumbai Indians v Royal Challengers Bangalore
15:30 ITV4
Mumbai Indians
Mumbai sit just outside of the playoff places with four wins from a possible seven but victory over the Knight Riders last time out keeps the squad on course for the knockout rounds.
There have clearly been issues with the balance of the side and in particular, the top of the order where the partnership of Ricky Ponting and Sachin Tendulkar may have delighted the media but had failed to make any tangible impact.
Ponting sat out the previous game and, after Dwayne Smith came into the side and made a match winning 62, there’s unlikely to be any changes to Mumbai’s starting XI. With Kieron Pollard and Rohit Sharma also hitting form, the Indians look strong going into the second half of the groups while Mitchell Johnson and Lasith Malinga are combining well to keep opposing totals in check.
Royal Challengers Bangalore
RCB may not be a one man team but they are indebted to Chris Gayle whose power hitting has propelled them towards the top of the table. The West Indian’s incredible knock of 175 this week means that he now has 432 runs from eight games at an average of 108.00 and if the Royal Challengers make it all the way to the final, few would be surprised to see Gayle rack up a thousand runs in the tournament.
Even if Ricky Ponting doesn’t take to the field, he will working on a plan to get Gayle early but how do you bowl to him? England’s bowlers bounced him out in last year’s one-off international T20 but with umpires strict on the short ball in this IPL, it’s a ploy that requires no margin of error.
Gayle aside, RCB have Virat Kohli at number three in the leading run scorers list and with useful contributions from AB De Villiers and Tillakaratne Dilshan, the men from Bangalore are unlikely to miss out on the playoffs and there is enough depth in batting to take the points in this match.
Venue and Conditions
Only two games have been played at the Wankhede Stadium so far and Mumbai have won both of them by taking first knock. The average first innings score is 196 and while that is impressively high, who knows how many the Indians will need against Gayle?
It looks set to be a high scoring ground throughout the tournament so a minimum target is likely to be 180 and as far as the conditions are concerned, the forecast is for a low thirties centigrade maximum without a single hint of cloud cover.
Match Odds
The market is close but RCB are slight favourites at 1.89 while the Mumbai Indians are at 2.08. Without wanting to overstate the Gayle factor, so much of this does depend on his wicket and if Mumbai can get him early, they will look generous as the outside bet.
However, while we won’t see another 175 from Gayle in this match, he should contribute enough, with the help of Kohli and others, to take the points.
Mumbai Top Batsman
Ponting and Tendulkar are quoted as joint favourites at 4.3 but with one unlikely to play and the other hopelessly out of form, Kieron Pollard is my pick at around 7.0. Pollard will look to match Gayle in this match and he should come in early enough here to give the return.
Bangalore Top Batsman
No surprise to see Gayle as clear favourite at 2.26 but his performances mean that Virat Kohli’s contributions are being overlooked. The skipper has 333 runs at 47.57 in IPL 6 and looks a solid selection at 3.75.
Recommended Bet
Back Bangalore to win at 1.89
Milesey
( betfair )
This could be the thread too utilise to Score and Win coupon from Hills. Perming any 3,any 4 and and 5 from the 8 bankers too win and concede. Treble paying roughly 18/1, get 4or 5 up and it’s a good pay day
Hi milesey,
I am just following this site from just a few days N it resulted to be amazing.
One question I have about lay and trade ur bet.
Which u mention it in the gulf bet,
Can you explain it in detail and which betting site allow us to trade ur bet n how it works?
Thanks again.
WWW.BETFAIR.COM
Greening Up
A popular technique used by many traders is to ‘Green-up’ after making successful trade. Most of the reputable software packages will do this for you and make all the necessary calculations required but I am often asked how do you do this?
Many novice traders think that greening up means spreading the profit across a number of selections. Recently I met such a novice who angrily exclaimed that his potential £500 risk free profit on a horse shrank to a lot less than £2 after he had greened. He expected £50, as there were ten runners! Unfortunately, it is not a case of dividing the profit by the number of runners!
How is it done?
Let’s look at one selection in a Betfair market. I’m not concerned about how many possible winners there could be and this could be a horse race, a soccer match-odds market or a number of other win-only markets.
My selection is currently trading at 6.0 and I intend to back this for £100 as I expect the price to shorten. So my expected profit is £500.
A couple of minutes later the selection is now available to lay at 5.0. Laying at 5.0 for £100 gives me a liability of £400. Now I have the risk free bet we all like with a potential £100 profit on my selection if it wins and no liability at all if it loses.
But what if I want to make money whatever the outcome? I need to green up at this point.
I need to make a further greening bet. Calculating the greening stake required is easy. Simply divide the potential profit on the selection by the current lay price. So, in this case I would divide £100 by 5, which gives a figure of £20. I place a further lay bet of £20 at 5.0.
If the selection wins the following happens to the bets:
Original Back bet : +£500
Lay Bet : – £400
Second lay bet : – £80
Total Profit : +£20 !
If the selection loses the following happens:
Original Back bet : – £100
Lay Bet : +£100
Second lay bet : +£20
Total Profit : +£20 !
I make a profit of £20 regardless of the result. This shows on Betfair as a green £20 (or €20 if this is your preferred currency) against each runner in the market – even though I haven’t made any bets on any other selection!
Another way of greening up is to calculate the greening stake required in one go.
Let’s use our original example:
Back £100 at a price of 6.0. This means our expected return should we win will be £600. £500 profit plus our stake.
When the price reaches 5.0 we simply divide £600 by the lay price of 5. 600/5=£120. So we lay our selection for £120 at a price of 5.0. This has the advantage of having the £20 profit-no-matter-what already built in and we only have to place two bets instead of three.
Hedging or greening options are available in most trader packages such as Bet Trader Pro and Bet IE. Bet Angel Professional has the ability to trade with greening built-in automatically. Manual greening is possible and one great advantage of Bet Angel is that you can use the auto greening feature even if your greening stake will be less than £2!
Milesey
The main attraction to Betfair Trading is the ability to guarantee a profit on an event regardless of the outcome. This means that no matter who wins the event, you can generate a profit.
To do this, you will either have to back odds then lay them for lower or lay and then back at a higher price to guarantee a profit. The main principal here is to “Back High – Lay Low”. It doesn’t matter which one you do first.
Milesey
( betfair )
Betting Exchange Basics
Most people stumble into trading on Betfair. They like a bet on the horses or football and open an account after seeing a tv ad or being told about the often superior odds on offer. Once they realise you can actually lay a bet – in other words be the bookmaker – they then take an interest in how it works and discover an entire industry built on sports trading.
Most of us who like a bet have been told at some point or other “There’s only one winner at that game and it’s the bookmaker!” No doubt after a particularly bad run of losers we’ve all agreed with it too.
Now though, thanks to betting exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq we can all play the part of the bookmaker because you can lay a result as well as back it. For example, if you believe the favourite in the 2:30 at Sandown is a donkey and doesn’t have a chance you can lay it so that if one of the other 11 runners wins the race, you collect.
At the end of the day though the above example is still a form of gambling but being able to both lay and back during a sporting event opens up countless opportunities for us to progress from gamblers to traders. In much the same way as a stockbroker studies company annual reports and Government press releases looking for an edge, we can use our skill and knowledge as sports fans to take advantage of price swings and put ourselves in a no lose situation.
Lay em Low and Back em High (in any order)
To lock in a profit (known as greening up) the Betfair trader needs to lay his selection at a lower price than he backed or back at a higher price than he laid.
For example, you back Lee Westwood before the start of a golf tournament with £10 at 10/1. At the end of the second day he’s joint first and his odds have come in to 2/1. You lay Lee at 2/1 with £30 which means should he win your lay will cost you £60 (2 x £30) but your £10 win bet would also be up and win you £100.
So if Lee wins you would make £100 (on the bet) but pay out £60 (for your lay) making you a total profit of £40. If Lee loses then your £10 bet is down but your £30 lay is up so you would make £20 profit. Regardless of what happens though, your profit is locked in so you can sit back with your feet up and enjoy the last 2 rounds in the knowledge that whatever he does, you will make money.
Another example is laying the draw. A lot of traders claim you can no longer make a profit on this trade yet it has been the cornerstone of my trading for several years and continues to be. The method is built on identifying football matches where the favourite is expected to score goals while the underdog has a leaky defence.
You lay the draw at for example 4/1 and wait for the favourite to score. Depending on how strong the favourite is and how long it took them to score, you can expect the price to move out to around 6/1 or 7/1. You can then back the draw to lock in your profit or sit tight and wait to see if they get another goal and push the price out a lot further.
Milesey
SEMI FINAL SUNDAY
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Kidderminster Harriers v Wrexham
BSBP Play-Off Semi-Final 2nd leg, Sunday April 28, KO 13:30
Live On Premier Sports
Wrexham hold a 2-1 advantage from the first leg at The Racecourse Ground in midweek. It’s fair to say that Kidderminster were poor on the night and the Welsh side deserved their one goal advantage at the final whistle.
It’s only half-time in the tie though and I don’t think Steve Burr’s side can be as bad again. That may sound harsh, but their passing was off track on the night and we didn’t see any of the fluid football that propelled them to an incredible 25 wins in their last 29 regular season matches. They did have spells in the second half in which they were clearly on top, but overall they didn’t do enough to bring Wrexham back to Aggborough on at least level terms.
Wrexham boss Andy Morrell will feel that an end of season dip in form was justified to restore his ’starting XI’ to something near his first choice as the playoffs got underway. Their usual battling midfield display broke up Kidderminster’s normal game. The Red Dragons will have exerted a lot of energy in that midweek effort and it could be argued that Kidderminster’s younger legs might recover a bit quicker for Sunday.
A note of caution should be given with Kidderminster’s home record against their fellow top ten in the division. Nine matches have produced just four wins, although one of those was a 2-0 success against Wrexham at the end of last year. The first leg was the first time in 11 games that Kidderminster had scored less than two goals in a fixture. I expect them to get that stat back on track here and go through to the Wembley final. Wrexham’s away record against the better sides in the Blue Sq Bet Premier reads as two away wins against their fellow top 12 teams. They failed to score in seven of those games and I expect them to also draw a blank here.
Recommended Bet
Back Kidderminster Harriers at 1.8
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Newport County v Grimsby Town
BSBP Play-Off Semi-Final 2nd leg, Sunday April 28, KO 16:30
Live On Premier Sports
Newport County boss Justin Edinburgh was sensible to suggest that his side have only done half the job with their 1-0 success at Blundell Park in the first leg. A late own-goal from Ian Miller means that County kick-off at their Rodney Parade home a goal to the good on Sunday.
In the ten previous years of these Conference playoffs a one-goal away lead has been achieved twice in 20 semi-final first legs. BOTH times the deficit was overturned by the away side in the second game for them to progress to the final.
It’s not likely to be as straightforward as that simple stat for Grimsby to get back in this tie. Nine of the previous 20 semi-finals required extra-time or a penalty shoot-out to separate the sides. Watching the low-scoring first leg it was obvious that a mistake or freak own goal was probably going to settle it and there were very few clear-cut opportunities in the 90 minutes.
The dilemma on whether to stick or twist could catch Newport in two minds and that may play into Grimsby’s hands. A large number of their games in the regular season were achieved without conceding a goal and they have the patience to get back into this tie. Newport have failed to score in nearly a quarter of their home matches and have thrown in the odd abysmal performance in front of their own fans. A 5-0 defeat against Forest Green Rovers was the low point of a bad run in the middle of the campaign.
Grimsby’s away games are usually low-scoring affairs, with just 2.04 goals per game in their 23 regular season matches on the road. They are unbeaten in their last six away matches and they can sneak this game by a 1-0 scoreline to send us into extra-time.
Recommended Bet
Back Grimsby Town at 3.1
Milesey
( Betfair )