THE NFL play-offs are under way and there's a cracking double-header today from the NFC and AFC.
First up it's New York Giants facing the tough trip to Green Bay Packers, followed by Pittsburgh Steelers at home to Miami Dolphins, and Jordan has picked out a double he fancies, below.
On the tennis front Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray in an epic Qatar Open Final yesterday and this morning it's Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov going head to head for Brisbane Open glory.
There's plenty more sporting highlights today, including BDO World Championship darts and NBA basketball, so feel free to add your own tips and thoughts.
Jordan's NFL Tip
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Green Bay Packers ML
42-50 @ 365– 5 points
Took 31 carries but he got there. Just.
Lamar Miller Over 72.5 Rushing Yards @ 5/6 @ PP – 6 points **WIN**
Other main bet for today is the Antonio Brown/Steelers Wincast @10/11 @ Ladbrokes – 5.5 points (EVS @ William Hill)
Take 2
Hi all its your main man Max here, I posted a write up on todays games but they haven’t made it through, so I am giving you the short version. I thought Saturdays games were tough to make a profit on and none of the prop lines fell into my criteria. I only posted a double which was let down by the Lions failing to score, but Sunday looks better for me. I will post my Wildcard results after the weekend.
So the short version, Miami coming from Florida wont fancy a cold afternoon/Evening in Pittsburgh. The Steelers rested their 3 B monsters in the last game, Big Ben, Bell and Brown. I suspect they will stack the pocket to stop the UK’s Jay from running and force the Fins to throw. I forecast Pittsburgh to get 26+ pts so they meet my criteria to make up the first part of my double. I’m taking them O24.5pts.
The late game is the game of the round for me. Big Blue have beat my Boys twice this season and although I think we match up better against GB, I would love to send the G nation home in the playoffs. I mentioned in my post that didn’t get through the WEATHER in Lambeau is expected to be minus degrees. That wont affect the Giants, if you have ever been in new York in Dec/Jan/ Feb it is just as cold. The Giants when they went on their run to the Super bowl, were known as the “road warriors” and if you want to win the big one, you have to win on the road.
The value lies with the Giants at almost 3/1 on the ML and taking 4.5pts start +. Rodgers is a top QB yet he as one ring compared to Eli who has 2 rings. This Giants D as a Dallas fan as found are tough to play, yet this GB secondary especially at the back is rank poor. It is gonna be close, I want to send the Giants home in the Championship game, but we matchup batter against a one dimensional GB O. I am taking Giants +11 (no draw) to make a 4/5 Double at Skybet.
Max’s Wildcard Double
Pitts O24.5pts
Giants +11
4/5
GL
Rugby Roundup
Bristol +14
1.90 @ bet365
??WINNER??
Munster ML
Ospreys v Connacht under 52.5
1.83 @ bet365
??WINNER??
Cardiff team points under 17.5
1.80 @ bet365
??WINNER??
Updated Totals
Won 41
Lost 34
Happy days! With the bonkers double almost coming in, Exeter drew with Saracens and Bristol were within a score of Northampton. That would have been the icing on the cake! ??
Max’s Anytime and Prop tips, including his NAP and NB
In Brief just in case it doesn’t get through, My NAP of the playoffs is Bell to score 4/7, a dual threat out the backfield, I see him having O120+ scrimmage yards. As I said earlier I expect Miami to stack the box like they did when they beat the Steelers earlier this season, to stop Ben, and Bell and to take away the deep ball to Brown. It aint a bad game plan, except they are relying on 3 big time play makers all to be off and while I am on Bell anytime, it leaves Ben too look at who is going 1v1 down the field.
Rodgers out the slot or Jesse James and I am leaning on the former to cover his line which is 7yds lower than the ceiling I would give him and around 17-20yds higher I can see him getting plus more in my criteria. I’m happy to take O41.5yds at Betfair as he could cover this in 2-3 catches, or even one deep ball running out the slot and over the CB’s. He looks a big price to score to even in the red zone when you got the likes of Bell, Brown, Willams and James. At 9/4 yes please although I think if he scores it will come from out the red zone.
Anytime you like for Max
Bell 4/7 (NAP 20PTS)
Rogers (Pitts) 9/4
Rogers O41.5yds 5/6
In the late game I have already said it is tough to call, if the Giants get their running game going it will allow Eli to expose green bay back door and mean Rodgers has to come out throwing. Eddy Lacy is a big miss for this team, they had some success with Montgomery and traded for Michael which hasn’t really worked so in my criteria I had Rodgers despite the weather going for around 280yds, so the 269.5 at PP gives me some wiggle move, and 5/6 I am happy to take.
On the road you need your run game, to open up the passing lanes, and against a rank bad secondary OBJ could run riot. He is the star of this game forget, Rodgers and Manning, OBJ is primetime, if the Giants get the run game going with Perkins and Jennings then Becks could do some serious damage in one v one matchups. I had his ceiling at around 95+ so I will take him to go O90.5yds Skybet. The 23/20 at Bet365 anytime looks good too.
I am putting up Jennings O40.5yds at 10/11 Skybet, but if you can, check latest team news. Perkins ran all over Washington last week and no doubt the Giants in the Cold (as I have mentioned) will look to run the ball and now with 2 “decent RB’s” they can pound the ground game giving Eli the chance to get is favourite matchups one on one against a poor GB secondary. It also means they can keep Rodgers on the side lines. He looks a touch of value to score at 11/4 Unibet.
Max’s Prop Tips
Rodgers O269.5yds 5/6
Beckham O90.5yds 10/11
Jennings O40.5yds 10/11 (check line-ups)
Anytime for Max
Beckham 23/20
Nelson 11/10
Jennings 11/4
GL
NBA singles
Jae crowder (celtics) over 11.5 points 5/6*LOSE* ✖️Total 8
Aldridge (spurs) over 16.5 pts 5/6 *LOSE*✖️ Total 15
Not a great night ?.try and bounce bk tonight…
Well done winners
—
NBA player prop record
56 wins
45 loss
OKC Thunder -2
San Antonio Spurs -5
10/11 @ Skybet – 3.3 points **WIN**
Well done any winners.
Euro Basketball Sat Fourfold
Best Balikesir @ Penarth Karsiyaka (15:00GMT)
Total Points: Over (147.5)✔
BK Opava @ CEZ Nymburk (16:00GMT)
1st Half Spread: Nymburk (-12.5)✔
Sisu @ Bakken Bears (16:00GMT)
1st Half Total: Bakken Bears Over (44.5)✖
Alba Berlin @ Rasta Vecta (19:30GMT)✔
Points Spread: Alba Berlin (-4.5)
Just under 4/1, Skybet – 1pt staked.
Gdynia luck!
——————————–
Bakken Bears were a huge letdown. Their biggest rivals Horsens lost a few days ago and you’d have assumed they’d want to capitalise with a strong 1st half display in what I thought would be a high scoring game. There was 208 points scored (which is huge in Euro hoops) but only 41 scored in the 1st half from Bakken. They then went on to score 59 in the 2nd. Hugely frustrating.
Mavericks +2.5 @ 1.90 (PP) ❌
Updated record
Week – 5-4
Season – 52-40
@baggio any thoughts on the few games today?
I can see Wasps putting in a good performance at home. Split between a team points or handicap. I like -7 at the moment
I also think Clermont to reach 20 points. Not great odds but as a double i may be tempted
Hello mate. Struggled to find anything of worth today after a brief look this morning. Defo a Wasps win but can’t make out if it will be close, low scoring or what. Haven’t looked at Clermont yet.
Possibly looking at the spread on for Stade Toulouse v Stade Francais. They’ve had some relative success against them away. Drancais are unbeaten at home but that has to end at some point.
Other than that not sure really. Doubles may be the way to go on a tricky card today.
In fact thats what i’m gonna go with. Toulouse spread has moved from +5 to +4.
Well done Jordan on the basketball .
On to today NFL games fancy Pittsburgh -7 , at 8/13 with green bay ml 1/2 shade over 5/4
Good luck all
Stole Hull’s heads up with São Paulo U20s and paired it up with my NBA double
Thunder -3
Spurs -4
2.11/1 Treble – 2.5pts
*WON*
Stole Hull’s U20 tip and then my double ??
Good stuff mate.
That wasn’t negative btw dude. Stuck out for me the most too.
Sorry missed the Plymouth goal tip as I was out.
At the moment they’re playing for 0-0 it seems.
Liverpool need to get some subs on or it will be 0-0.
Top 14
Stade Francais v Toulouse
Pretty even stevens between these two. Francais have an excellent home record this season but have struggled against Toulouse in this fixture winning 2/5. Toulouse are in good form winning 4/5 and could either win this fixture or will keep it close.
Stade Toulouse +4.5
1.83 @ bet365
GL if you follow
Great shout!
Got their eventually. Did you put anything on the Wasps match?
Nope, i settled with your handicap bet as a single. Glad i did! I’ve just backed over 39 points in the Clermont match for some late Sunday entertainment.
Cyclo-Cross:
Belgian National Championship 2017
Match-ups:
Toon Aerts to beat Pauwels
Van Aert to beat any other rider
Double @ 1.92 with Unibet / 888
Toon Aerts is the number 2 for me in this race. He has shown this season he can keep up with the big boys. Pauwels will have trouble with the long sections they have to run with the bike and most of the time he get’s back problems when he has to run too much.
Van Aert will win this if he doesn’t crash. He is head and shoulders above the rest of the field. I am quite surprised you can put this match-up in a double.
Shit. Van Aert wom, but Aerts crashed a couple of times
NFL prop double . Eli rogers (steelers) over 42.5 receiving yards 4/5 and Geronimo Alison (Green Bay) over 23.5 receiving yards both wide receivers have had big games and been involved of late and I think this is a good punt both relatively low yards considering how involved they’ve been recently good luck with your bets.
Alison has only been involved because of Cobb’s injury, and with Cobb practising all week it put me off. Agreed though the total is low if Cobb is on a snap count. Like the Rogers bet as Green has now been ruled out so another passing threat down but a nice boost for my Brown Wincast. Jesse James could be an outsider shot for a TD @ 7/2 @ William Hill.
Seen one ‘analysis’ of the game in Green Bay tonight so thought I’d give mine. The Pack have played three of the top six scoring defenses this year. The Vikings twice, the Seahawks and the Giants. Packers won three of those games, all at home, with the loss in Minnesota. Seattle averaged only 0.5 a point worse than the Giants on the season, and Rodgers had no problem in Lambeau helping the Packers put up 38 points, and his best game of the season with a QBR rating of 150.8.
Eli might have a great playoff record, and a good record in Lambeau, but over the last three seasons the Giants offense has regressed more and more. It is clear that their defense is what helped them get where they are now, but going into Lambeau and relying on your defense with one of the in-form QB’s averaging 33 points over their last three, you better hope Eli repeats history. At 19.4 points per game (26th worst) the Giants found themselves wedged in-between the 3-13 Jacksonville Jaguars, and the 2-14 San Francisco 49ers.
While their scoring defense was great, they still allowed a 23rd worst 251 passing yards per game. It was their run defense which excelled, but Green Bay had a very little running game to speak of. If you let Aaron Rodgers move the ball, you better hope you stop him in the redzone, which the Giants were the best at on the season.
Back in week 5, Rodgers had his worst completion percentage on the season, but it’s worth noting that big play Tight End – Jared Cook didn’t feature, Jordy Nelson dropped FOUR passes, and big plays were called back for penalties. Both of the Packers offensive and defensive lines manhandled the Giants, and Beckham was held in check by the strong LaDarius Gunter. Beckham has huge RAC (run after catch) ability, but if you play bump and run coverage, he struggles getting out of his breaks, which was made clear here. This was a big win for the Packers considering they had allowed 205 yards to Marvin Jones the week prior. The Giants were out of all-sorts up until about 3 minutes to go when Beckham scored his 8 yard TD.
Randall Cobb was the Packers main guy through the air on the day (might have been different if Jordy hadn’t dropped his targets) gaining 108 yards on 9 receptions. Cobb missed the final two regular season games due to an ankle injury, has practised in a limited fashion all week. That usually means he’ll be available to play, but could be on some sort of snap count. In Cobb’s absence, Geronimo Allison (G-Mo) stepped into the three WR sets and caught eight passes for 157 yards.
The Giants worst area in defense this year was stopping Tight Ends, yielding the sixth most catches (89) and fourth most yards (1,052) to the position this year. Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers have shared snaps since Cook’s return, but the athletic Tight End has been on the field more, and has seriously helped Aaron Rodgers completion percentage when on the field.
Props are very hard to determine for this one. Aaron Ripkowski was added to the injury report last night with a shoulder injury, while Ty Montgomery was benched in the first half in Detroit last week, but returned in the second half. My guess is that Ty Montgomery will get the majority of the carries as long has he doesn’t tick Rodgers off again and his 50.5 rushing total is tempting despite the Giants strong front. This didn’t matter in week 5 with the Packers averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and Eddie Lacy racking up 81 yards on 11 attempts (7.4 yards per carry). Don’t let anyone fool you saying that Eddie Lacy was a huge loss ;) Since Ty Montgomery’s conversion to running back, with only 77 rush attempts, he has 5.9 yards per carry, which would have led the NFL in ypc if he’d have had 100 attempts. I’d be surprised if Lacy even gets resigned in the off-season with Montgomery’s switch.
Damarious Randall has practised all week so should be good to go, but Quinten Rollins will be out after his concussion last week. Micah Hyde could play a slot role, but either way, OBJ will be getting safety help on most passing plays. I like Victor Cruz to have a good game here. The Packers have obviously been burned by receivers all year, but with Beckham seeing double coverage, and Sterling Shepard lacking elite speed. It’s interesting to note that Cruz hauled in four more 20-plus-yard plays than Shepard this season despite seeing 33 fewer targets.
Props To Consider
Ty Montgomery (Green Bay Packers) Over 45.5 Rushing Yards @ 4/5 @ 365 (Rush & Receiving Yards Over 65.5 @ 17/20 @ Ladbrokes)
Jared Cook (Green Bay Packers) Over 38.5 Receiving Yards @ 4/6 @ 365
Mason Crosby (Green Bay Packers) Over 7.5 Kicking Points @ 8/11 @ 365
Victor Cruz (New York Giants) Over 32.5 Receiving Yards @ 10/11 @ Skybet
Thought it was better to see a stat driven detailed write up. Good luck if you fancy anything.
Go Pack Go!
Giants at Packers
I was very vocal about Green Bay and Aaron Rogers preseason, it was the same old story though, people not reading a post correctly and basing an argument on something totally different,
For people that didn’t read it correctly I was saying how overrated Aaron Rogers was BECAUSE of his lack of leadership skills or nonexistent leadership skills, a bit like Hillary Clinton would have been as US President, something else I called right,
My antepost outright selections are going well with just the Jaguars slipping up but the Steelers 11/1 and Giants 25/1 mean I have two antepost selections in the postseason and they could meet in the big one,
My banker of all bankers as I called it won although one person “I do remember who” tried to make out I knew nothing about American Football ??
My “banker of all bankers was the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC North at 13/10 and they duly obliged,
Anyway on to my beloved Giants against the Aaron Rogers not led Packers,
Rogers is throwing up some numbers that we are accustomed to seeing with him but as usual he is failing in being a leader, last week the Packers beat the Lions in a decider but what a mistake that was as the Seahawks would have been far easier for the Packers but by winning they now have to contend with the Giants who have one of the best postseason records about,
Twice the Giants have beat the Packers postseason at Lambeau from the last two meetings “and both times the Giants went on to Super Bowl glory, 2007 & 2011”
NY Giants haven’t been scoring points but like the Giants as a whole, Eli Manning steps up in the playoffs, this is when we see Manning Mode,
One of the most important matchups is the Packers wide receivers Nelson, Cobb and Adams against the Giants cornerbacks Apple, Rodgers-Cromartie and Jenkins who have been outstanding this season but need to step up again,
The Giants are 5-0 in their last five playoff road games because they save their best football for the playoffs, they have won nine of their last eleven and have a defence that hasn’t conceded more than 10 points in three of their last four games and have only conceded more than 25 points once this season which was in week three,
I did highlight preseason how much the Packers and especially Aaron Rogers missed Jordy Nelson last season and that has been proved with Nelson scoring 14 touchdowns this season, Green Bay have won their last six games and that has been down to Rogers but he still lacks leadership skills for me,
The running game could prove crucial as both have struggled but the Giants have been better recently, time for Jennings and Perkins to step up,
The Giants offence has to and in my opinion will step up and help out their defence both on the ground and through the air, Green Bay are weak at cornerback so it’s up to Manning to take advantage
It’s been hard for Green Bay to get here but the Giants have pretty much coasted
My heart says Giants, my head says Giants and my gut says Giants so I guess it’s gotta be the Giants so c’mon Giants Blitz, Blitz, Blitz we know you ain’t afraid to
It’s actually a waste of time having a write up because everyone knows if this game becomes a shootout then Green Bay should win or if the Giants defence do it right and keep Rogers in the pocket “by blitzing” then the Giants have a massive chance
NY GIANTS to beat Green Bay Packers 21/10 coral william hill
NY GIANTS +4.5pts 21/20 NAP/NB (double stake) betbright
NY GIANTS -5pts 10/3 bet365
C’mon Big Blue, we want to play and beat those Cowgirls again
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets (17:05)
Pick – 76ers +2 @ 1.90 (PP)
This game tips off in about 1 hour.
Good luck.
Sorry no time for write up.
Looked at this last night, like it. Praying we get a Korver total soonish. Maybe from 365.
This was my fancy.
76ers +5.5
Jazz +9
Kings +19
Pays 9/5 @ Skybet but I’m leaving the NBA tonight.
Brown is 4/5 without the wincast @ Skybet so I’ll have another 5 points there.
*Posted Yesterday*
NBA Bet For Tonight
5 Fold @ 6.3/1 (£10) LOST
Pacers/Knicks Over 210.5
Celtics -1.5
Jazz -2 ✗
Thunder -3.5
Mavericks +6.5 ✗
NBA (accumulators)
November Bets 27 Win 3 -£83
December Bets 30 Win 5 +£95.85
January Bets 7 Win 0 -£65
NHL
5 Fold @ 15.41/1 (£5) LOST
Blue Jackets/Rangers Over 5.5
Oilers ML
Islanders ML ✗ lost on pens
Blues ML
Sharks 60mins
NHL
December Bets 26 Win 3 +£12.22
January Bets 7 Win 0 -£40
poor start to year for me, well done any winners last night
AB with the first Pitt TD.
Antonio Brown @ 4/5 – 5 points **WIN**
Wincast can be covered too ?
Could have at least kept the intrigue going for a bit @jordan. Cracker mate well done.
I do apologise mate ?
Saves the fingernails.
Very true. Like last night when the last 8 yards seem to take an age. Feels so much sweeter when a bet wins by half a yard!
Big sweat ?
Jordan ?
76ers +2 @ 1.90 (PP) ✔
Decent win for the sixers ?
I’ll probably have a bet on the later games.. leaning Portland.
Updated record
Week – 6-4
Season – 53-40
Thanks for the tip bro..eventually got on near the end of 1st quarter after the market kept on getting suspended ?.top tipping..
76ers have been playing well recently
Nice one Raoul seen it late couple of mins before tip off ?
No prob ?
NBA Bet For Tonight
5 Fold @ 8.45/1 (£10)
Clippers ML
Cavaliers -4.5
Blazers -3.5
Warriors -3.5 1st half
Lakers -2.5
Had a look at the Request A Bets on Skybet. Think this is worth a point.
Green Bay -6.5 hcap, Montgomery 60+ all yds, Nelson 50+ rec yds & 2+ FGs @ 7/2
Brown/Steelers Wincast @ 10/11 @ Skybet – 5.5 points **WIN**
Double can be covered on the Giants to win. Letting it run for now ??
Fancy green bay tonight by 7-14pts going have a few quid on that. Sky bets 4/1 on Nelson and Beckham both to score too for bit of interest. Main bet tonight is on Shepherd anytime for giants he is 15/8 and he is as prolific as oder Beckham but comes without the hype (or the coverage) so he is my main bet for tonight.
NHL
5 Fold @ 9.42/1 (£5)
Bruins ML
Penguins ML
Blue Jackets ML
Blackhawks ML
Oilers +1.5
Blazers
Cavs -3
Warriors -5
2/1 – Treble – 2.46pts
Blazers
Cavs -3
Warriors -5
2/1 – Treble – 2.46pts
Both the Blazers and Pistons looking to get a positive result to get going in the second half of the season and push towards the playoffs. Pistons protect the board well so expecting Blazers to sink some 3pts start of the game to open up a gap and see them through the match.
Cavs back to full strength, Suns have been on good form but Cavs class will shine through.
Warriors will be out to get back to winning ways after losing from 24pts up in their last match.