WE'RE off and running now JB Holmes has got my first win of the year. After a string of placed winners over the past few months I was wondering if I was ever going to land a winner – so to do it with a 28-1 shot was great.
And it came just in time for the first Major of the season and one I have been looking forward to this for months.
I love The Masters. It’s the tournament I most love to watch … unfortunately I will be in front of the telly not like Mr Fixit who’ll be there in person.
Maybe we should have a wee competition for the first person to see him on the course in his shorts (not a pretty sight). And having played with him last week I hope he watches the golf better than he plays (not hard).
Looking back over the last five years of The Masters the best performances have arguably come from Tiger Woods (three top-four finishes), Lee Westwood (not out of top 11 in five starts), and Matt Kuchar (who has not been out of the top eight in the last three years). And of course Bubba Watson has won it twice in the last three.
I mentioned Bubba a few weeks ago and thought he was looking good for Augusta but he blew the lead and lost out to big Dustin in the WGC-Cadillac recently. When he’s under pressure his swing seems to be all over the place and with his swing he’s got to be spot on.
I know he’s won two of the last three Masters, and I will probably regret this, but I’ve gone off him a bit recently and will leave him out.
The man I think is going to do it this year is big DJ. Since he’s come back from his self-imposed exile from the game he has finished in the top six four times, winning once and missing two cuts.
Johnson now seems to have his act together since becoming a father for the first time and when on form he’s hard to beat. I know his form at Augusta is, well non-existent, but this is a new DJ and one destined for a Major.
When you look at Henrik Stenson’s standings in the stats on the PGA Tour all you see is a high percentage of first and seconds. In driving accuracy he is 12th with 70%, in strokes gained:total he's first, GIR second.
Apart from scrambling from 10-20 yards (11th) he is first in everything else. He is second in strokes gained:putting and the more I look at his stats I’m wondering why I’m bothering picking anyone else. But if it was just down to stats picking a winner would be relatively easy.
With six top-seven finishes this year, including a win and two seconds in his last three outings, Jordan Spieth looks the form horse coming in to Augusta. He is first in putting average and putts per round and although his driving accuracy is around 60% he is fourth in strokes gained:tee to green.
I wasn’t going to back him this week because I thought his price was too short but with the form he is on I can’t leave him out.
FedEx Cup leader Jimmy Walker is another form horse, coming off his win at the Valero Texas Open. Two wins and a second certainly prove the 36-year-old is playing well although it must be worrying by this time last year he had won three tournaments!
His driving accuracy is better than last year but it’s still only around 54% and his GIR is just short of 70%. He is third in strokes gained:putting and second in putting average so he’s good with the short stick.
For my last pick I’m going for an outsider. The guy who I think has a big future in the game and has started this season well. Brooks Koepka began the season with two top-10 finishes and then won the Phoenix Open.
He had a couple of mediocre tournaments and withdrew from the Arnold Palmer with a rib injury. Hasn’t started a tournament since then so don’t really know how his injury will bear up but he has the game to win big and a small each-way bet could turn out to be a nice little bonus.
One more thing. After looking at the last five Masters tournaments the most consistent player is … believe it or not Lee Westwood.
In 2010 he was second, 2011 11th, 2012 T3rd, 2013 8th and last year 7th. Top-ten finish? Just saying.
Recommended Bets
Dustin Johnson 2pts ew (16-1, William Hill, bet365)
Henrik Stenson 1pt ew (22-1, Coral)
Jordan Spieth 1.5pts ew (11-1, Betfred)
Jimmy Walker 1pt ew (22-1, 888sport, Ladbrokes)
Brooks Koepka 0.5pt ew (90-1, Betfred)
Lee Westwood 1pt top-10 finish (4-1, Stan James)
Ace Venturer
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
The Masters Top 20 Finish
Jimmy Walker 10/11 (William Hill)
Cheers for the tips Ace. I’ll be watching (and listening) for Mr F screaming ‘Get in the hoooooole’ in a deep Scottish accent! Can’t believe you’re going Mr F. What an experience that must be! Enjoy! These are my bets for the tournament with explanations why.
NAP Bubba Watson Top 10 Finish @ 11/10 @ Bet Fred (I’ve backed Bubba EW @ 16/1 back in February so hopefully get some value on that for a top 5).
NB Matt Kuchar Top 20 Finish @ 5/4 @ Stan James
Other Bets
Phil Mickleson Top 20 Finish @ EVS @ Stan James
Lee Westwood Top 20 Finish @ 13/8 @ Co-ral
Ian Poulter Top 20 Finish @ 9/4 @ 365
Reasons
Bubba Watson Top 10. Won it twice in 3 years. He would join Jack Nicklaus as one of only two golfers to win three green jackets in four years. A win will be nice but tup 10 will do fine.
Matt Kuchar Top 20. Has finished Top 8 in each of the last 3 Masters.
Phil Mickleson Top 20. Didn’t make the cut last year but I can’t see it happening again. Won it in 2010 and finished 3rd in 2012.
Lee Westwood Top 20. Actually ranks as the best golfer here over the last 5 years. Made top 10 in four of the last 5 with the other results finishing 11th.
Ian Poulter Top 20. Top 20 in three of his last five trips to Augusta. Top 10 in two of his last five.
Good luck lads. This and the Ryder Cup are the only events I follow every round from start to finish. Love it.
Jordan, I’ll be easy to spot – the only person at Augusta wearing a Bankies top.
Haha I’ll keep an eye out!
Just for anyone on Ace’s tips. PP and Skybet are offering to 6 places rather than 5 like most other bookies. DJ 16/1 @ both bookies so it will be rude not to and I will have £20 on DJ. Cheers Ace.
Day 12/1 2.5points ew for me.
2 top 3 finishes in 4 years, he’s a class act and its only a matter of time before that first major win.
BetFair are offering 7 places each way. However they will only pay out to a max stake of £25 on the 6th and 7th places. Its explained clearly on the website.
I’m on:
Jason Day 16/1
Jimmy Walker 22/1
In my opinion, one of the best Masters bets, in terms of value, is the Top 20 finish. There are only 98 in the field and once you rule out a few of the old boys and some of the amateurs, you are left with maybe 80 guys who could be “competitive.” Basically, a one in four shot at a Top 20.
Of course the top boys are all very short so I try and look for a bit of value further down the entry list. There are a few of in form players around the 3/2 – 5/2 mark and of these, for me, JB Holmes at around 3/2 and Paul Casey at 2-1 with Betfair will give you a great run for your money. Both long hitters (key this week with inclement weather expected) who are in great form and have each played on the hallow turf of Augusta before.
If you want a bit more for your buck, my pick is Masters rookie, Brendon Todd at 5/1 with Betfair.
Although a rookie in terms of The Masters, Todd is a born and bred Georgian who had a great career at the University of Georgia, where you get to play Augusta every year, so he does have some experience on the track. He has missed only one cut this season so far and is 12th in Par 5 scoring average and as we know, tbe Par 5s are where you must take advantage at Augusta.
He has also recently become a father for the first time which although not golf related, should inspire him to a great Masters debut.
Apologies for the length of the write up but hopefully some of you are interested and my picks and reasoning can help you win some cash!
Wishing everyone a great Masters week!
Cheers,
Joe
After watching Jordan Spieth in the Houston (admitedly it were only the final round and sudden death) I will have a small E/W bet on him at 11-1. Lee Westwood has also been mentioned and I will be on him for top English golfer at 7-2.
a week that started with much promise for me faded quickly by the time had finished my easter eggs. Phil Mickleson was one of my tips and seemed to have found his form as he sat as half way leader but finished with 2 average rounds whilst others were flying to finish 17th. Patrick Reed was solid but unspectacular and also finished tied 17th. My 150/1 and 200/1 shots lived up to their odds and failed.
This week at the Masters I ended up with a short list of 30 and it really can go to a number of players, like the look of Aces tips but am sticking to players that have done well for me this year and the guys that have won me money is where am staying.
Jason Day 12/1 ew 6 places at paddy power
has done all but win the green Jacket, finishing 2nd and 3rd here in last few years, love my horses for courses and top 6 places paying 4/1 hoping to cover my stakes even if the jacket eludes him again
Jimmy Walker 22/1 – ew 6 places at paddy power
sticking with people that have been successful so far this season Jimmy Walker is right up there with the best in form players, he doesnt carry a name like Rory, Tighr or some of the bigger names but is in good form this year, won the other week, plays par 5s very which which is crucial here and did well here last year finishing 8th
Patrick Reed 35/1 ew 6 places at paddy power
i may as well re hash the same players week after week but Paddy Reed has had a great season winning once and finishing top 10 on 4 occasions.
Outside bet Keegan Bradley 80/1 ew top 6
hasnt really performed well here over the years but he has 1 major to his name and looked to be in good touch last week and at 80/1 to win or 20/1 a place is too big to turn down
Finally a couple of quid on first round leaders, this normally throws some unknown names in the top 4 or 5 after day 1, Bill Haas led last year with Louis Oostuizen in 3rd, in 2013 it was Marc Leishman who led with David Lynn and Gonzalo Castano in the mix so am looking at 2 first round leader bets for guys not necessarily going to go on and win but can still have their day in the sun (or rain)
1st rd leader – Louis Oosthuizen 30/1
1st Rd leader Angel Cabrerra 66/1
Good Luck
Lump on the best player in the world.
Rory Mcilroy 6/1
Leader after day one
Fred couples 80/1
Berd wiseberger 150/1
Chris Kirk simply has to be backed this week. He is the World No. 23. Only Rory under tha age of 30 has more PGA tour wins. He hits a draw off the tee and can shape his irons both ways. Is generally good at Par 5s, has a great short game and is a really good putter.
He lives in Georgia and has already won there at Sea Island. 20th on his debut last year.
He is still 200+ on the machine and amazingly 125/150s with most bookmakers. From a value pont of view there is no avoiding that price for the World No. 23!! Insane.
Asaide from Kirk I think Day and Spieth are the two to beat.
Despite DJ’s resurgence i’d still question him having the patience for 4 rounds at Augusta. His short game while improved greatly still isnt up to a hard, fast wknd at the Masters.
Bubba’s only negative appears to be how hard it is to go back to back there. (only Nicklaus, Woods and Faldo)
Scott has a great record there but I’m surprised such a relatively poor putter has a green jacket. While he will go well again even with his change back to the broom I’d be surprised again if he can finish above everyone.
Walker doesn’t seem to have any negatives really. His scrambling maybe isn’t quite top class but solid enough.
Despite Stenson’s peerless ball striking he has played something like 40 odd rounds at Augusta and only ever broken 70 once. That doesnt inspire confidence for me. Another one whose short game (despite looking good on stats this year) just isn’t up to winning a Masters.
Westwood a lovely price for Top 10. His iron game is just perfect for Augusta and he will move through the pack as things firm up over the wknd.
Small win only bets on Spieth and McIlroy – fancy Walker as best ew value at 22/1. For anyone looking for a real outsider, Tringale seems huge at 300/1. Hunter Mahan also available at 100/1.
Adam Scott, Jimmy Walker and Bubba Watson for me. The deliberation for me will be whether to wait to see if Bubba starts slowly and I can get an improvement on the current 12/1
Scott
1pt e/w
Walker
1pt e/w
Watson
1.5pts e/w
Have always tended to back a few outsiders in the past, some start well but I always find that they fade towards the nitty gritty. Have backed Bubba on both previous occasions he has won, so I’ve got to stick with the man!
Henrik Stenson outright
22/1 EW
Jimmy Walker outright
22/1 EW
Lee Westwood top 10 finish
7/2
Jim Furyk top 20 finish
9/4
Just incase people don’t know, Stenson has been struggling really badly with the flu, couldn’t even do 9 holes apparently.
Well it’s time to put up
Tipped back in January DJ, fowler, lefty
Still fancy all 3 Nd backed them
As stated DJ in great form since his return won and and should have been 3 wins
Lefty looks to finally solved his putter issue if he keeps it to just 1 way and stops switching
Fowler has been very quiet but this is where his season kick started last year and I think he could be close
Westwood and Ryan more are my last tips,after first 2 rounds I will look at somebody 3 shots or more back that could make a move
McElroy to be outside top 20
Raal mate what are your tips for the Masters? Spoke the other day and you said you were still sorting yours out got any shouts yet?
LEE WESTWOOD TOP 10 FINISH 7/2 William Hill
Jason Day 14/1 @ Ladbrokes……Jason all the way for me.
Driving Distance Ranked 9th
Driving Accuracy Ranked 54%
GIR Ranked 3rd
Putts from 3ft Ranked 1st
Putts from 4ft Ranked 36th
Lowest Round Ranked 3rd
Par Breaker Ranked 1st
Has played 6 events this year Final positions
3rd-17th-1st-4th-31st-17th
Also have a side bet on Tiger EW@ 33/1 because we will NEVER see that price again for him.I know he has’nt been playing well but class is class and you can never rule him out.
P.REED 35/1
B.SNEDEKER 40/1
Z.JONSON 100/1
C.HOFFMAN 200/1
Best of luck to everybody!
Some of my 3ball fancies for today
TRINGALE 6/4 – Ben martin – robert streb
WALKER 6/5 – tiger woods- Donaldson
COUPLES 13/8 – jaidee – grace
Final picks from me
Outright:
Day 12/1 2pt ew
Reed 33/1 1pt ew
Kuchar 40/1 1pt ew
Round 1 leaders:
Snedeker 40/1 0.5pt ew
Cabrera 66/1 0.5pt ew
Dubuisson 66/1 0.5pt ew
5 under for Hoffman but can he keep it consistent? Time shall tell. Good shout Ian. 45’s now.
Had a bit of 40/1 when johnson was +2… nice value now hes -1
Loooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnngggg way to go guys..Dont get too excited lol.
Ooft Spieth was 5/1 about 20 minutes ago. Do we get on @ 5/2?
Paul,
You are probably the only person in Scotland wearing a Bankies top !! lol
Im going for the top 5
DAy
Spieth
FOwler
PAlmer
ROse
Going to get on Day @ 9/2 @ 365 to 4 places. Had a great back nine only bogeyed one.
Changed to 5/1 but that’s because he’s in the bunker on the 17th.
6/1 @ WillHill