RORY McILROY made it hard for himself on Sunday but came through in the end, making it three titles in a row and helping us with our third winner in a row.
We also picked Rickie Fowler who had another great Major, finishing T3 at 25-1. So not a bad week for our selections.
This week I’m focusing on the inaugural Made in Denmark tournament at the Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort in Aalborg, north of Copenhagen.
I fancy a home bird to win and although the obvious pick is Thomas Bjorn, and maybe Thorbjorn Olesen, I’m going for Anders Hansen. He’s fallen away a bit since his T5th in the Volvo China Open in April and T2nd in the Championship at Laguna National the following month but when it comes together he’s going to be up there.
His GIR is 71.73% and driving accuracy over 61%, which aren’t bad stats. His putting average is under 30 so if he gets on the green in regulation he could post a good score.
In the US PGA last week Marc Warren had a very credible minus-nine total, finishing T15. In the Scottish Open four weeks ago he finished third and in The Open he was going well until he hit a 76 in the last round.
The Scot is having a good season and I wont be surprised if he has a win soon. If there is anything in his stats that lets him down it is probably his driving accuracy but with his GIR stats at 68% and his average putts per round at under 30 he seems to be able to get round that.
Chris Wood is another whose putting average is under 30 and GIR over 71 but his driving accuracy is under 59%, even I can do better than that He finished T23 in The Open and T47 in the US PGA so he seems to be hitting some kind of form and he’s had four top-10 finishes this year so could be due a good tournament.
Over in the States it's the Wyndham Championship. Paul Casey had a bad US PGA and was T47 in The Open but I get a feeling the guy is not far away from a top-five finish. I know he’s a long shot but a small eachway might see a good return and it's about time he got back to the top.
Webb Simpson’s early-season form hasn’t continued and he’s missed two cuts in his last four outings, albeit in The Open and the US PGA. He finished third in the Greenbrier recently so maybe he’s getting some form back. With not a very strong field in this tournament he looks a good eachway bet.
20pt staking plan
Anders Hansen 2.5pts ew, 30-1 Coral, McBookie
Marc Warren 2.5pts ew, 30-1 Betfred
Chris Wood 2pts ew 25-1 Betfred
Paul Casey 1pt ew, 66-1, Coral
Webb Simpson 2pts ew 20-1, Coral
Ace Venturer
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Side bet, any Danish winner 9/2 enhanced from 7/2 with PP.
Ad – what do u think of the following, I think it’s a safeish treble (apart from Lisicki!!!)
Youzhny v Seppi 1/2
Stephens v Zahlavova 4/9
Lisicki v Errani 8/15
I also favour the following
Bouchard v Kuznetsova 8/11
Kerber v Makarova 4/7
Monfils v Agut 5/6 (this might be a single at that price)
For an upset Ward at 2/1 over Benneteau who had a tough match yesterday.
ad my top 3 today would be Youzhny/ Stepgens / Monfils treble. What do u think?
What would you add/ take out??
Fancy Snedeker in the US at 14/1. Koepka and Watney perhaps offer a bit of value – both 40/1(5 places e.w).
Id-
I’m tempted to say Monfils and Fognini will both win today, but I’m really not sure I can bring myself to back either.
I’ve hardly seen Strycova play recently, but I do like the look of Stephens. She seems switched on at the moment, though obviously you never know when she might switch off again.
I agree with Ward over Benneteau being worth a go at 2/1. And I will go with Lisicki, despite those ever present lingering doubts you mention.
I won’t back Youzhny personally as his form’s been poor (apart form beating Tsonga in whatever shape he was in) and I haven’t seem him or Seppi play for a while.
I would add Cilic @ 1/3 as I really can’t see him losing. Verdasco hit 7 winners yesterday, 74 unforced errors and 16 double faults v Granollers. Surely Marin will be far too solid for him. Cilic 2-0 is another possibility.
I don’t trust Bouchard to beat Kuznetsova. I think she’s feeling the weight of expectation now she’s a grand slam final and she hasn’t coped with it well so far.
There are so many players today who should win but are capable of blowing it completely. It’s a tricky one.
Cilic, Stephens, Robredo, Lisicki are probably my favourite four. That pays around 9/2 as a fourfold. For Singles i fancy Svitolina to take a set off Kvitova @ 5/6, Janowicz to take a set off Dimitrov @ 1/1, and possibly Taylor Townsend or James Ward to spring an upset, both at 2/1.
*note these are not what i would call TIPS yet. A little bit of finalisation to do. What are you thinking Iddy?
100% agree on Cilic but thought he was a bit short at 1/3. I also think Fognini should have too much for Hewitt. He beat him easily last time, but it’s Fogi so u never know.
Janowicz is another good tip for getting a set. I think he has a shot at winning, but Will Hill don’t do to win a set betting so I’m a bit restricted.
I’m going to go with my treble as Stephens/ Youzhny and Monfils I think
Then have a crazy £1 acca including ward/ Bouchard/ Cilic/ Fognini/ Janowicz/ Lisicki and possibly Knapp.
Watched a bit of Youz yesterday and he looked good plus he prefers the faster surfaces. Think Monfils is playing ok and Djoko match last week should give him confidence. If Stephens keeps the ball in the court she should have too much power for Zahlavova.
What’s your final picks Ad??
Going to go with yours as well
My Wednesday Tips:
Daily Treble:
Lisicki d Errani
Cilic d Verdasco
Robredo d Querrey
pays 2.4/1
I will also be on Stephens and Fognini but I just don’t trust them enough to tip them. They’ve both burned me before. I’ve seen Lisicki beat Errani very recently, and Errani played for over an hour longer than Lisicki yesterday in a nail biter, so I’m more confident in her coming through. And Robredo is certainly a more reliable player than either so I’m going with him to take the head to head to 3-0 v Querrey.
Single:
Janowicz to win at least a set v Dimitrov @ 1/1
Janowicz showed enough in his first round win over Gabashvili to suggest he can be competitive here. This is a step up in class, but other than too many double faults he was excellent in the last round and looked like he had his head in the right place, which is nearly always the difference between him looking like a top 10 player or a challenger level player. Dimitrov should win this, but he does drop sets even when he does. He has dropped 17 sets in 15 best of three set hard court matches this year, so over one a match, and with the weapons Janowicz has I think he has a great chance of taking one here.
Good luck one and all.
Just seen that WH do do a to win a set and Janowicz is 6/5 so am on that pick. Hopefully he goes a break up in one of the sets and it’s an easy cover
I’ve got a little on yours too Id + fognini added for a little extra.
I’ve also got a pound on a 900/1 12-fold which is bound to come in ;)
What’s your £900 12 fold?
Going to put a £1 on it
Just seen Sterling is 6/1 for young player of the year – that’s got to be a good bet hasn’t it. Not much competition, can only think of Shaw!!!
Robredo, fognini, ferrer, youzhny, cilic, lisicki, safarova, ward, stephens, janowicz, pavlyuchenkova and makarova. I know you prefer kerber, I just had a feeling. Coulda gone either way with that pick though
The problem with young player is that it still goes up to 23 year olds for some stupid reason. It should be 20/ 21 at most IMO
Final tip of the day then is Ward to beat Benneteau at 2/1.
Benneteau played for an hour longer than ward and struggled yesterday and has had five hours less recovery time than his opponent today, who scored a big, confidence building win over garcia lopez
My bets for tonight’s MLB:
COL Rockies @ SD Padres
Pardes @ 1.58
Rookie Matzek is struggling to find a win and so are the Rockies. Rockies have lost 20 of 26, and 22 of 25 on the road.
Padres have won seven of the last nine meetings at home against the Rockies. San Diego’s 4-1 win over Colorado on Tuesday was its 10th in 13 games, and 14th in 18 home.
Pirates @ Tigers
Pirates @ 2.05
Pirates -1.5 @ 2.63
Tigers are giving Buck Farmer his debut tonight, only 2 weeks after him being promoted to double A.
Worley starts for the pirates and after a shaky start he’s regained his command. He’s 5-1 since the all star break and has been in fine form.
Pirates have won the last two 4-2 and 11-6, although they were the home team in these meetings.
TB Rays @ TEX Rangers
Rays @ 1.71
Rangers under 3.5 runs 2.00
Rangers may have won last night but haven’t won consecutive home games since June. Their pitcher tonight is 0 from 3 at home with an era of 13.17.
Rays have won 4 consecutive road games when Archer has started.
Also a bet I would take is Rangers under 3.5 runs @ 1/1. Rays have set an AL record by allowing three runs or fewer in 16 straight road games and they will look to continue that tonight
Trade makarova for monfils and we won’t be going against each other!
Janowicz took the first set v Dimitrov to bring home the first bet of the day @ 1/1.
And your man Youzhny’s a set and a break up v Seppi Id, hopefully a sign of things to come.
Great call on Janowicz to win a set – I thought he had an outside shot of an upset but didn’t know about that particular market on will hill. Will look out for that in future….but a great 6/5 tip that Ad.
Just need Youz to serve it out now….showed nerves yesterday but was a double break up
Ad – hope u swapped Kerber for Makarova in your accas, or left her out. I was quite confident of Kerber in that one..
Cheers Id. I’ve only placed a few bets on that market but won them all as far as I can remember. One to keep an eye on. If I hadn’t watched Janowicz play his last round match I wouldn’t have touched it, but saw enough to be confident of him getting something. That’s the benefit of watching matches over studying stats. Hard to fit it in with tennis though.
Good call on Kerber and Youz. I left makarova in but won’t worry about getting annoyed till the other 11 have come in! starting to wish id tipped the straight janowicz win over Ward, but didn’t want too many eggs in that unreliable basket.
Ward getting tonked – think we got a bit too patriotic on that one haha.
What do u think on POSPISIL to win a set against Federer. fed might be a bit tired and could phone it in and rest up for the Open?? Although I think this is one of Federers fav places to play, he loves the quick conditions here.
yeh pospisil is one I’ve been mulling over for taking a set. I just love fed so much I find it hard to bet against him! A decent chance for vasek to nick one though and I do think 15/8 is a generous price.
I was trying to back stosur to win a set v serena but the markets all disappeared from about 10 mins before until the match started. I have a small bet on her to win 2-1 @ 10/1 but that’s not really what I wanted! As I type this she’s blown the mini break and looks like failing to close out from a winning position as usual. money probably saved there then.
In play- Radwanska to win 2-0 v Nara @ 11/10
Youzhny and Stephens have done the business for me. Just waiting on Monfils now. Hopefully wake up to a nice win.
Robredo in for u, and hopefully Lisicki has turned her match around so I think you’ll be waiting on Cilic.
Got on Janowicz to win a set single as well
Lisicki has won! Went the long way to get there haha
18 double faults from Sabine Lisicki….looks like a typically ridiculous wta match with breaks all over the place. Errani was 6-5 up serving for it but Lisicki broke back and took the breaker 7-2. Kind of glad i couldnt find a stream for that one. It was stressful enough just following the score! But it’s the result that counts in the end and now we just need Cilic to put Verdasco. And for Monfils to get past Bautista Agut to bring in Iddys treble.
Not gone for POSPISIL in the end – was just asking your thoughts on it.
Good call on Radwanska 2-0. I take it u got that at 2-1 down in set 1? U probably have a 4-1 cover now on set 2.
yeah, she ended up breaking back about 60 second after i posted that unfortunately so not much chance of anyone else actually getting on it! Not sure i’m even going to bother covering that one, it wasn’t a huge stake. I’ve just stuck a little cover on Verdasco as I now stand to win quite handsomely if he loses. I reckon its money wasted, but I’d be kicking myself for a long time if I didn’t.
Guys how’s your 12 folds doing?
Ward killed off my 12-fold but it’s only a £1 bet
If cilic wins I think Iddy will have hit 10 from 12. Ward lost and ferrer looks like he’s gna lose too
That’s seriously impressive picking though
I can feel a 10-12 fold landing soon haha. Think me and Ad can do it. My main bets are usually doubles or a treble (with the occasional single) but I always put a £1 acca on for fun.
Cilic has won the first set and Ferrer has saved match points and 1 set all.
There you go POSPISIL has won the 2nd set. I put £10 on him at 5/1
That’s to win the match – not to win a set. It’s a win/win as Fed is my fav player. So if he gets through all is good.
I’m impressed by your picks and I am on Lisicki and Cilic today following your tips earlier
Nice double Wato – hope Cilic wins this in 2 sets.
Haha sh**t, I completely misread the score in the cilic match and for the last hour I’ve been thinking he’s a set down and about to blow the bets. When he saved a break point just now I thought it was as good as match point verdasco. 11 from 12 is looking likely now. I nearly backed ferrer at 2-5 down in the second but didn’t in the end. gutted!
Just stuck a quid on Townsend at 50/1 in play!
He did the business too :) 3 days in a row you guys have helped me get tennis bets up
good stuff Watto, long may they keep landing. A great week so far. Hopefully tomorrow won’t buck the trend.
going to study the card for a bit now then pick it up in the morning when all the odds are out.
Iddy- 11 out of 12 on what musta been around an 850/1 shot! Gutting, but encouraging. No Brits next time for sure.
*Wato – sorry!
Will def be looking out for your thoughts and tips tomorrow guys and again 11 from 12 is actually amazing. Keep up the good work
For anyone interested in backing an outright winner, Raonic is still available at 14/1 on betfair exchange. seeing as his route to the semi finals is Ginepri, Steve Johnson (could change but a set and break up on Gulbis atm), followed by Fognini/Lu, i really would be surprised not to see him there. If he does get through he may run into Federer, but Roger dropped a set to Pospisil today and a combination of fatigue/one eye on the U.S open could make that a winnable matchup for Milos. The other possible opponent is Murray/Isner, both of whom are beatable (though of course he’d rather face Isner.)
Novak doesn’t look quite his usual imperious self right now (having been taken apart by Tsonga and dropping a set to Simon who he would expect to take down in straights if at the top of his game). Djokovic is the big favourite here for a reason, but Raonic has a decent shout at getting to the final, and even if he just reaches the semis that 14/1 price will be cut and offer a profitable cash out option.
In play –
Raonic Ginepri under 9.5 games in set 2 @ 1/1.
Raonic does not like he would drop serve if he serveed a hundred games in a row. He is serving first so needs just one break if he holds all his to take it 6-3 and bring the unders in. just brokoe to 0 to win the first set
Ad, saying you’re on the golf thread Tiger Woods has just announced he’s ruled himself out the Ryder Cup so we won’t be seeing him in Scotland next month. It’s disappointing for fans because everyone still wants to see Tiger but his record is so poor in these contest it won’t weaken the US team. Tom Watson though could be without four players he’s want in there and Europe are looking a great bet at 8-13 with various firms. Could be too many rookies in there for the skipper’s liking if Kuchar and Dufner join Dustin Johnson on the sidelines. Europe 8-13 – get on before it goes.
Els and Snedeker e/w.
Monfils won 6-4, 6-1 so my treble of Monfils/ Stephens/ Youzhny came in easily without any of them dropping a set.
Ads treble of Cilic/ Robredo/ Lisicki also came in comfortably so great day yesterday.
Janowicz to win a set was also a great tip from Ad at 6/5. I also said Monfils 5/6 to win was a great single and had a small stake on that.
Today’s card looks much tougher to call but hopefully more of the same Ad/ Wato
Mr F- I know next to nothing about golf that sounds like a good tip to me. I will be on. I’ll thank you later!
Right Ad these are my possible suggestions for today;
Wawrinka v cilic 4/7
Ivanovic v Kuznetsova 4/9
Janowicz v Benneteau 5/6
I also like the following
Monfils to win a set v Federer 5/6
Fognini v Lu 4/7
Stephens v Jankovic 6/5
2 possible upsets;
Kerber v Wozniaki 6/5
Youzhny v Ferrer 6/4
Cast your eye over them Ad and let me know what u think and we’ll try and get a double/ treble agreed.
I was thinking of a Halep/ ivanovic/ Murray/ Janowicz 4-fold today which pays 4-1.
Any thoughts on that??
I like the look of monfils to win a set @ 5/6.
Staying with that market I also like isner to win a set v murray @ 8/11. He was sensational here last year, beating mayer, gasquet, raonic, del potro and djokovic before losing two tie break sets to Rafa in the final, and if he can channel confidence from that he is dangerous for Murray. he’s served v well so far this week.
Pavlyuchenkova to win a set off Sharapova at 6/5 also tempts me. Maria loves dropping sets and Pav beat her earlier this year and looks to be playing well enough to be competitive.
Halep – I see her being too solid for Safarova.
Radwanska – Sabine might be able to out power radwanska to a set but can’t see her being solid enough over three to win it. 18 double faults in her last match is crazy and if she’s anywhere near that level of erratic again she won’t get away with it.
Janowicz – didn’t see him v dimitrov, but the very fact he won, and after being pulled back to 1-1 by the favourite, says a lot about his mental state. Seems to be here to play and has a 3-0 h2h lead over benneteau.
Jankovic- likely to be a very tight one so I might not touch this match, but I think Jelena will only be getting better this week and be a bit too solid for Sloane who lost to her last week and is the more likely to lose her way at some stage.
Ivanovic should best kuznetsova but I’m reluctant to put my money on her. Seen her disappoint so many times before and Kuz is solid so will give her the chance to beat herself.
If I had to lick a winner from Wawrinka Cilic I would go Cilic. But I think I’ll leave that one alone.
Likewise I would take Wozniaki over Kerber, but it will likely be very tight and I’ve got Caroline for the outright win so will just put one of them in a long shot acca, not in my main bets.
My initial gut feeling was murray is decent value for the win today and should be in my bets, but looking at isners form here and stats this week, as well as Murray’s loss to tsonga and there’s actually a little less value than i thought. I’ll be interested to hear any further thoughts from you and I’ll be back on here at around 12 to post my finalised tips for the day.
Ad, I’d take Murray – thinks he needs a big tournament before the US Open. I’ll put up a new sports thread soon.
Cheers mr F. Sorry for clogging up the golf thread!
COL Rockies @ SD Padres
Pardes @ 1.58 *WIN*
5-3 for the padres.
Pirates @ Tigers
Pirates @ 2.05 *LOSE*
Pirates -1.5 @ 2.63 *LOSE*
8-4 for the tigers. Pirates were still in the game with the score 5-4 going into the 7th. Pirates pitcher was relieved and the bull pen collapsed giving up 3 runs in the 7th.
TB Rays @ TEX Rangers
Rays @ 1.71 *WIN*
Rangers under 3.5 runs 2.00 *WIN*
10-1 for the rays.
Dazzled thanks for the SD Padres tip a nice little overnight top up :)
*Dazzler sorry
No problem. I’ll be putting some tips up in a bit, hopefully a few more winners!
Ad – I have placed my bets and stuck with my original 4 fold of Janowicz/ ivanovic/ Halep/ muzza. It pays 4/1. The treble without muzza pays 2.5/1 if anyone thinks Murray is a risk.
I have also put a small single on Monfils to win a set at 5/6.
Let me know your plays