Premier League: Player fouls tips & predictions

The Premier League fouls betting markets allow punters to wager on the total number of transgressions in a match, specific player fouls, players to be fouled, or which team will commit the most fouls.

You can bet on over/under fouls, team fouls, or individual players.

Below you can find our Premier League fouls tips and betting predictions ahead of this weekend's action.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

With teams around the relegation zone starting to pick up points, Crystal Palace’s home match against Newcastle carries added importance for the hosts. Will Hughes has been a regular culprit for fouls in recent games, with totals of 3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, and 2 across his appearances.

Notably, the match in which he committed just one foul saw him play only 15 minutes. Hughes has already served a suspension for accumulating five yellow cards and now faces Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes, the most fouled player in the Premier League this season.

This game is expected to be tight. Newcastle’s away form has been inconsistent, and Palace, looking to climb away from the bottom three, will need a strong performance. Hughes will be tasked with breaking up Newcastle’s midfield play and regaining possession. Given his recent form, where he’s committed two or more fouls in his last five matches, it seems likely he will comfortably reach that mark again in this match.

• Best Bet: Will Hughes commit over 1.5 fouls at 1.84 with Unibet

West Ham vs Arsenal

Arsenal travel to West Ham for the late Saturday kick-off, with the Gunners averaging 12.83 fouls per game away from home this season, the fifth highest in the league. Thomas Partey is expected to play a key role, either at right-back or in central midfield. In his last four matches, he has committed 2, 3, 2, and 2 fouls, demonstrating consistent involvement in physical battles.

If Partey starts in midfield, he will likely face Lucas Paqueta, Edson Alvarez, and Tomas Soucek, all players comfortable on the ball or willing to engage physically, making them prime candidates to draw fouls. Alvarez has been fouled 11 times in his last 10 games, while Paqueta has drawn nine fouls over the same period. If Partey shifts out wide, he could come up against Jarrod Bowen, who has also been fouled nine times in his last 10 matches, including twice in his last two games.

Bet365 offers 2.62 for Partey to commit two or more fouls, which looks like value compared to Unibet’s 1.79 for the same market. Given his recent form and the matchups, he’ll face, Partey committing at least two fouls appears a solid option.

• Best Bet: Thomas Partey to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.62 with bet365

Wolves vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth have committed more fouls than any other team this season, and they face a tough away game against an improving Wolverhampton Wanderers. Matteo Senesi is expected to start at left-centre-back for Bournemouth and has committed 16 fouls in his last 10 games, making at least one in nine of those matches. Known for his physical approach, Senesi has also recorded two or more tackles in seven of his nine appearances this season.

This matchup could be challenging for Bournemouth, as Wolves possess plenty of pace and attacking threat. Matheus Cunha has been fouled 18 times in his last 10 matches and could find himself up against Senesi. Wolves’ Bellegarde, likely to feature on the right side of their attack, has drawn 16 fouls in his last 10 games.

At 2.08 with Unibet, backing Senesi to commit two or more fouls offers value given his defensive style and the pressure he’s likely to face in this game.

• Best Bet: Matteo Senesi to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.08 with Unibet

Who has committed the most fouls and who has suffered the most fouls?

Which match will have the highest booking points total?

Booking points in betting refer to a system where points are assigned based on yellow and red cards shown to players during a match.

Generally, a yellow card is worth 10 points, while a red card is valued at 25 points. In some cases, two yellow cards resulting in a red are counted as 35 points.

Brighton vs Southampton

Friday night’s South Coast Derby sees Brighton host Southampton, with the match broadcast live on Sky. Southampton sit at the bottom of the table and are beginning to get cut adrift, though they showed promise in their narrow 3–2 defeat to Liverpool last time out. A more composed performance might have seen them take something from that game.

Brighton’s home matches this season have been card-heavy. They average 2.5 cards per game at the Amex and have received three or more in four of six matches, with two or more in five of six. Their opponents have also picked up at least two cards in all six games, with Brighton’s home matches averaging 5.83 cards per game.

Southampton’s discipline on the road has been poor. They have collected 20 cards in six away matches, averaging 3.33 per game, and have received three or more in five of those six. Across their 12 league games this season, Southampton’s matches average 6.17 cards, with the Saints picking up three or more in 11 of 12 matches. With Brighton collecting two or more cards in nine of their 12 games, this fixture sets up for plenty of cards.

The appointment of referee Rob Jones adds to the likelihood of a fiery contest. Jones has averaged 5.75 cards in eight Premier League matches this season, issuing at least one card to both teams in seven of those and two or more to both sides in half. His one Brighton match this season, a home game against Nottingham Forest, saw him show eight yellows and one red.

For this match, there are two attractive options. You can back both teams to receive over two cards each at 2.87 with Bet365. Alternatively, a simpler bet is 60+ booking points at 1.91 with Sky Bet, which offers strong value given the statistics.

•  Best Bet: 60+ booking points at 1.91 with Skybet

Player to be carded acca – our picks

Will Hughes looks like a strong candidate to pick up a card in Crystal Palace’s upcoming match and backing him at 4.1 with Unibet offers solid value. Hughes has already collected five yellow cards this season despite starting only five matches for Palace. He is expected to start in midfield, where he will likely be tasked with containing Bruno Guimarães, the most fouled player in the Premier League.

The referee, Darren England, has shown an average of 6.25 cards across his four Premier League matches this season, further boosting the chances of disciplinary action in what could be a physical game. Considering Hughes’ track record and the matchup, this bet appears well-priced.

• Will Hughes to be shown a card at 4.1 with Unibet

Wolves’ clash with Bournemouth promises to be a lively affair, particularly with Peter Bankes officiating. Bankes averages 4.17 cards per Premier League game this season, making disciplinary action likely in a matchup that could see plenty of physical battles.

One player to watch is Wolves’ Rayan Ait-Nouri, who has already collected four yellow cards this season. Operating as a wing-back or full-back, Ait-Nouri will likely find himself in direct competition with Bournemouth’s Adam Smith at full-back and Marcus Tavernier on the right flank. Both Bournemouth players are aggressive in their approach, which could draw fouls from Aït-Nouri as he looks to halt their advances.

With Wolves’ defensive duties demanding discipline and Bankes' tendency to brandish cards, there’s a strong chance Ait-Nouri could receive his fifth booking of the campaign. This setup adds another layer of intrigue to what a tense and competitive match at Molineux could be.

• Rayan Ait-Nouri to be shown a card at 3.9 with Unibet

Leicester’s poor start to the season has already cost Steve Cooper his job after just 12 matches. Now under the leadership of new manager Ruud van Nistelrooy, they travel to Brentford, a side with a strong home record. Despite Leicester’s overall struggles, one player worth watching for disciplinary issues is Buonanotte, on loan from Brighton.

Buonanotte averages 1.72 fouls per 90 minutes and has committed at least one foul in almost every game this season. His disciplinary concerns go beyond fouls, as his inexperience and occasional poor decision-making have already led to a suspension earlier in the campaign.

This match will be a significant test for Leicester, and the team’s expected high-energy approach could easily tip into ill-discipline. Given Buonanotte’s track record and temperament, backing him to receive a card at 3.90 with Unibet looks like a value bet

• Facundo Buonanotte to be shown a card at 3.90 with Unibet

Combining our three-player selections into a three-fold comes in at 62.36 with Unibet.

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