Premier League: Player fouls tips & predictions

The Premier League fouls betting markets allow punters to wager on the total number of transgressions in a match, specific player fouls, players to be fouled, or which team will commit the most fouls.

You can bet on over/under fouls, team fouls, or individual players.

Below you can find our Premier League fouls tips and betting predictions ahead of this weekend's action.

Manchester City vs Tottenham

Manchester City take on Spurs on Saturday evening in what promises to be a physically intense encounter. Dominic Solanke has been a key figure for Spurs, committing 16 fouls in his nine Premier League starts this season. He has made at least one foul in seven of those games and two or more fouls in six.

Known for his relentless pressing and work rate, Solanke often leaves his foot in while attempting to win the ball back.

Given Manchester City's typical dominance of possession, Spurs will likely spend significant portions of the game chasing the ball. Solanke is expected to drop deep into midfield to disrupt City's play and will likely give away fouls in the process. Historically, this fixture has been competitive, but Spurs have racked up fouls when visiting the Etihad, committing 14 fouls in their last two trips. On the road this season, Spurs are averaging 14.6 fouls per game, a reflection of their high-intensity pressing style.

Spurs have struggled away from home under Ange Postecoglou, with a record of six wins, five draws, and nine losses. More recently, they have managed just three wins in their last 15 away matches. Meanwhile, City’s midfield is expected to feature a double pivot of Mateo Kovacic and Ilkay Gundogan, providing a platform for Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, and Savinho to support Erling Haaland up front.

This setup could force Solanke into even more defensive involvement, increasing the likelihood of fouls in what should be a hard-fought contest.

• Best Bet: Dominic Solanke to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.0 with Bet365

Ipswich Town vs Manchester Utd

It's a big showdown at Portman Road on Sunday as Ipswich Town host Manchester United in what promises to be an exciting Premier League clash. United arrive under the guidance of their new manager, Ruben Amorim, who will be eager to begin his tenure with a win.

Meanwhile, Ipswich are riding high after securing their first Premier League victory of the season—a stunning away win against Tottenham last weekend.

Ipswich boast one of the most exciting young English strikers in Liam Delap, who has netted six goals in his 10 Premier League starts.

Delap is expected to lead the line as the lone striker and will look to challenge United’s back three, should Amorim implement the anticipated 3-4-3 formation. Known for his physicality and relentless pressing, Delap has committed 25 fouls in 11 games this season, including five against Spurs. He has made at least one foul in 10 of his 11 matches and two or more fouls in six of his 10 starts.

Delap's strength and aggression will likely set up an intriguing battle with United’s defence, particularly if he faces Martinez. Against Spurs, Delap caused problems for Romero and Dragusin, pressing defenders, chasing every loose ball, and making his physical presence felt. With three yellow cards already this season, Delap won’t shy away from challenging United’s backline.

The match is set to be played in front of a full house at Portman Road, with Ipswich fans hoping for back-to-back wins. Ipswich manager Kieran McKenna, formerly of United, aims to showcase his team’s strengths. Expect Ipswich to come out strong, pressing United from the opening whistle.

• Best Bet: Liam Delap to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.50 with bet365

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

Arsenal host Nottingham Forest in a clash between two top-five teams, both sitting level on 19 points. While both sides struggled slightly before the Christmas break, Forest will be eager to recover from their 3-1 defeat at home to Newcastle.

Morgan Gibbs-White is expected to play in the attacking midfield role behind Chris Wood, putting him in direct battles with Arsenal’s Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard in the middle of the park.

Gibbs-White has been a consistent contributor for Forest this season, but his aggressive style has seen him commit 16 fouls in eight matches—an average of two per game. He has made at least one foul in seven of those games and two or more in five. His away form shows a similar pattern, with fouls of 3,1,4,0 committed away from the City Ground.

While Forest have started the season strongly, this match represents a significant test. Arsenal remain undefeated at the Emirates this season and have only lost twice in their last 20 home matches. Forest, on the other hand, are unbeaten away from home, having already faced tough opposition in Chelsea, Brighton, and Liverpool.

Sky Bet offers odds of 1.83 for Gibbs-White to make two or more fouls, while Bet365 offers a more appealing 2.40—potentially great value.

Gibbs-White has a history of fouls against Arsenal, committing four in his last four matches against them, including three in his last two appearances at the Emirates. This matchup could see him tested heavily once again.

• Best Bet: Morgan Gibbs-White to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.4 with Bet365

Who has committed the most fouls and who has suffered the most fouls?

Which match will have the highest booking points total?

Booking points in betting refer to a system where points are assigned based on yellow and red cards shown to players during a match.

Generally, a yellow card is worth 10 points, while a red card is valued at 25 points. In some cases, two yellow cards resulting in a red are counted as 35 points.

Fulham vs Wolves

I usually focus on backing the Premier League game with the highest potential for booking points. However, the odds on the matches I had in mind this weekend are too low. Instead, we’ll take a slightly different approach for this round of betting.

The match between Fulham and Wolves promises to be intense, with Wolves aiming to move clear of the relegation zone and Fulham excelling as one of the division’s best-performing teams based on xPTS.

Fulham have picked up at least two cards in each of their five home matches this season, averaging 3.4 cards per game. Wolves, on the other hand, average 2.4 cards per game and have received three or more in four of their five away matches, with at least two cards in all five. Wolves’ away games have averaged 6.2 cards in total, with both teams receiving at least two cards in all five.

Wolves have also been consistently carded in the first half, averaging 2.2 first-half cards and receiving at least two in four of their five away matches. They have picked up at least one first-half card in every away game this season.

The referee, Rob Jones, adds to the appeal of this bet. He has averaged 6.14 cards per Premier League match this season, booking both teams in all seven of his appearances and issuing two red cards. Both teams have received at least two cards in four of Jones’ seven games, and only five referees in the league have shown more yellow cards than him this season.

Given these stats, a bet on Wolves to receive a first-half card and both teams to collect at least two cards is available at even money with Bet365, making it a strong option for this weekend.

• Best Bet: Both teams over 1 card each and Wolves over 0 1^st half cards at 2.0 with Bet365

Player to be carded acca – our picks

Flynn Downes to be carded. Southampton are struggling, and a home fixture against an in-form Liverpool side is far from ideal for the Saints. Downes will anchor the midfield for Southampton, tasked with breaking up Liverpool’s attacks and winning back possession for the hosts.

His aggressive approach has already earned him four yellow cards this season, leaving him just one booking away from a suspension.

Downes has committed 18 fouls across 10 matches, averaging nearly two fouls per game. He has made at least two fouls in each of his last three outings against Liverpool, highlighting the challenge he faces in containing their dynamic midfield and attack.

With Liverpool’s dominance in possession expected, Downes will likely be heavily involved defensively, increasing the chances of multiple fouls and the likelihood of picking up a yellow card this weekend.

• Best Price at 2.65 with Unibet

Lucas Paqueta to be carded. Things are not going well for West Ham or their manager Julen Lopetegui, and a tough away fixture at Newcastle on Monday evening only adds to their challenges. Paqueta has been heavily involved defensively this season, committing 18 fouls across 11 matches.

What’s particularly notable is his foul rate in relation to West Ham’s results. In the three games West Ham have won, Paqueta has committed just three fouls, including two matches where he didn’t commit a single foul. In contrast, he has racked up 15 fouls across the seven games they failed to win, highlighting his increased defensive involvement in difficult matches.

Newcastle’s strong home form—just three defeats in their last 20 matches at St. James’ Park—presents another significant challenge for West Ham, who have won only six of their last 20 away games.

Given the likelihood of Newcastle dominating the game and West Ham’s struggles on the road, Paqueta will likely find himself under pressure, leading to a high chance of committing fouls. With frustration likely to build, this could result in a yellow card for him during the match.

• Best Price at 2.6 with Bet365

Michael Keane looks like a strong candidate for a booking when Everton face Brentford, with referee Chris Kavanagh in charge. Kavanagh has averaged a league-high 7.71 yellow cards per game this season, making him one of the most card-happy officials in the Premier League.

Keane’s disciplinary record also supports this angle. Despite committing only nine fouls across his nine appearances this season, he has already been booked four times—a testament to his knack for picking up cards even without a high foul count. He has committed at least one foul in six of those matches and is likely to feature against Brentford.

While Brentford aren’t a team that typically draws many fouls, Kavanagh’s tendency to flash cards suggests that even minor infractions could result in bookings. Given Keane’s history of receiving cards for relatively few fouls, and the match conditions with a card-happy referee, this looks like a good opportunity to back Keane to be shown a yellow.

• Best Price at 8.5 with Skybet

Combining our three-player selections into a three-fold comes in at 36.53 with Unibet.

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