Luxembourg extended their winless streak with a close defeat to Bulgaria on Friday and this match has little purpose for them. Northern Ireland need at least a point in order to seal the promotion to League B.
Luxembourg are experiencing their worst period in years, featuring seven games without a win and a single goal scored since March. They are guaranteed to end last in the group and will have to fight for their place in the play-offs.
And while they have had some positive performances against Northern Ireland in recent years, the visitors stand out with the tied-best defence in League C, alongside North Macedonia.
Northern Ireland conceded a single goal in the five rounds to date, courtesy of Bulgaria when they beat them 1-0. But their 5-0 win in the reverse fixture made up for that and Norn Iron need a single point against Luxembourg. A positive result on Monday would mean a direct promotion to League B. Losing to Luxembourg will send them to the playoffs and they will have to face one of the weaker sides from the higher tier.
How the bookies view it: Close but not close enough
As League C is one of the lower tiers, we often see competitive odds and this fixture is no exception. Northern Ireland are the betting favourites but not by that much. Betano gave Luxembourg 47/16 and Northern Ireland 21/20. The draw currently sits at 11/5.
Recent head to head: Northern Ireland with three in a row
Luxembourg and Northern Ireland met on multiple occasions in the last 15 years and produced several action-packed games. Northern Ireland won the last three, while Luxembourg's only win dates back to 2013.
Players to watch: Ballard back-to-back
Daniel Ballard reminded us of his attacking capabilities with a goal against Belarus on Friday and we like how high the odds are for him to go back-to-back. Sunderland's defender already punished Luxembourg once in the reverse fixture and should spend another 90 minutes on the pitch on Monday. And with 15/2 to score anytime, there is plenty of value to counter the high risk.
Probable line-ups
Luxembourg: Cardoso, Pinto, Carlson, Korac, Jans, Bohnert, Sinani, Pereira, Olesen, Rodrigues, de Sousa
Northern Ireland: P. Charles, Brown, Ballard, Hume, Spencer, S. Charles, McCann, Bradley, Price, Smyth, D. Charles
Anything else catch the eye?
Luxembourg are unlikely to end their winless run against Northern Ireland, especially when the visitors need the points desperately. The Green and White Army gave Belarus zero chances to score on Friday and punished every mistake.
Besides backing Northern Ireland for the three points, corners are a valid alternative pick. The visitors have been thriving in League C and often finished with plenty of corners – 7, 7, 7, 4, 10. Watch out for the corner markets and pick over 4.5 for Northern Ireland if such an option is available with your bookie.
It is hard to expect much action with Northern Ireland's defensive form, so we advise you to skip the goal markets for this one. There are plenty of other fixtures to look at and we prefer to keep it simple with this one.
This UEFA Nations League match between Luxembourg and Northern Ireland will be played on Nov 18, 2024 and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best Luxembourg vs Northern Ireland prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
