With the international break this weekend we focus on just Leagues One and Two in our EFL betting tips.
There is a massive game at the top of League One, where the recently promoted pair of Stockport County and Wrexham clash again.
In League Two, we take a look at a resurgent Accrington Stanley as they host Swindon Town, and league leaders Port Vale travel to Morecambe.
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Stockport vs Wrexham
Stockport County have been one of the standout performers this season with a record of W6-D6-L3, scoring 25 goals and conceding 17. They started the campaign impressively, losing just once in their opening 11 games. However, their recent form has been mixed, with two defeats in their last four matches, including a 2-1 loss at Lincoln and a 5-0 drubbing at home to league leaders Wycombe. Despite this, they responded strongly with a 5-0 demolition of Bolton. At home, Stockport boast a solid W4-D2-L2 record.
Statistically, Stockport dominate at home, ranking first for xPTS, fourth for non-penalty xG ratio, and second for shots on target ratio. They have one of the league's highest shot counts in home fixtures, making them a potent threat.
In contrast, Wrexham, currently third in the league, have a robust W8-D4-L2 record, conceding only 10 goals. However, their away form is inconsistent, with W2-D3-L2, scoring and conceding six goals.
They have beaten Peterborough and Rotherham on the road, so have ability to cause teams issues. Despite their lofty league position Wrexham rank 20th for xPTS and nineteenth for non-penalty xG ratio away from home, averaging just 0.49 xG per match and struggling to create chances. These statistics suggest that Wrexham’s form will not continue.
With Wrexham missing key players such as Jack Merritt and Stephen Fletcher, Stockport's Louis Barry, who has netted 10 times in 15 games, could be decisive. Barry leads the league with 3.18 shots per match, and Wrexham may find it tough to contain him.
Stockport’s home strength and Wrexham’s vulnerabilities on the road make the hosts strong favourites. A -0.25 Asian handicap on Stockport provides a balanced bet, ensuring reduced risk while capitalising on their likely superiority.
- Best Bet: Stockport County -0.25AH at 1.9 with 888 Sport
Morecambe vs Port Vale
Morecambe’s challenges this season are glaring, with a record of W2-D4-L9, scoring 14 goals and conceding 26. Their only victories have come away from home, including a notable 1-0 win at Barrow. They endured a dreadful start, failing to score in their first five games and not securing a win until mid-October.
That win was followed by three consecutive heavy losses to MK Dons, Wimbledon, and Chesterfield, with 11 goals conceded across those fixtures. Despite a recent 2-1 triumph over Harrogate, Morecambe's home form remains woeful. They have collected just three points from seven home games, failing to win and conceding a league-high 15 goals.
Port Vale, in contrast, sit confidently at the top of the league with 30 points from 15 matches (W9-D3-L3). They have scored 23 goals while conceding 16, with their defeats coming against promotion contenders Doncaster and Gillingham, alongside Barrow. Away from home, Vale’s record is impressive (W5-D0-L2), conceding just eight goals and keeping three clean sheets in their last four away games before a narrow loss to Gillingham.
Morecambe have struggled against top 10 sides, failing to win in eight attempts, while Vale excel against bottom-half teams with a record of W6-D3-L0. Statistically, Morecambe rank 24thfor xPTS and xGA over the last four matches, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities, while Vale are fifth for xPTS and boast the third-best defensive xGA (0.66) over the same period. Over the last eight games, Morecambe are 22nd for non-penalty xG ratio, whereas Vale sit first for xPTS and second for non-penalty xG ratio.
Port Vale’s superior form and consistency make them clear favourites to capitalise on Morecambe’s defensive struggles. Expect the league leaders to secure another vital win.
Overall, I have Morecambe in 23rd place for xPTS and 20th for non-penalty XG ratio. My rankings have Morecambe as the 20th-best home side in the division and Port Vale are the fourth-best away side in League Two.
- Best Bet: Port Vale to win at 1.80 with Ladbrokes
Accrington Stanley vs Swindon Town
Accrington Stanley have rediscovered their form after a sluggish start to the season. With a record of W4-D4-L6, they have scored 18 goals and conceded 22 but have notably won four of their last six matches. Their sole defeat in this period was a close 2-1 loss at MK Dons. At home, Stanley boast a solid record (W2-D4-L1), with their only loss being a narrow 1-0 defeat to Crewe. Recent highlights include victories over Morecambe and Barrow and draws against the top two sides, Walsall and Port Vale.
Swindon, on the other hand, have struggled with consistency, managing just W2-D6-L7 overall, scoring 16 goals and conceding 23. Away from home, the Robins have a modest record (W1-D4-L3), having conceded 12 goals. While they started the season with four draws in their first five away matches, they have recently suffered consecutive defeats at MK Dons and Salford, allowing seven goals in their last three road games. Although Swindon have found the net in seven of their eight away fixtures, they have also conceded in all but one.
Recent statistics further highlight the contrast between these teams. Over the last four matches, Accrington rank ninth for xPTS and seventh for non-penalty xG ratio, while Swindon sit 22nd in both categories. Over the last eight games, Swindon have conceded more shots in the box than any other side, reflecting their defensive struggles.
Accrington’s solid home performances, combined with Swindon’s frailties on the road, suggest Stanley are well-positioned to claim victory in this encounter, but we can take some of the risk of the bet out by backing Accrington on draw no bet, meaning if the game does end in a statement we will get our stake back.
- Best Bet: Accrington Stanley drawn no bet at 1.73 at William Hill
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