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Thursday saw another near miss as Chesneys Charm ended up beaten (by a neck) into second at Newcastle, having been well backed as I suggested he would.
| Newcastle - 18:45 |
Profit Street |
10/1 |
I’ll start Friday’s post by saying that due to budget cutbacks, I’ve been told to drop the Nap of the Day article down to three times per week for the time being. Friday’s Nap will be the last for this week and then it will be three per week from Monday. The days will vary from week to week.
On we go with Friday’s Nap, which goes at Newcastle, where ahead of the 18:45 contest, Nigel Tinkler’s Profit Street catches my eye at an early price of 10/1.
This less-than-fully exposed three-year-old hasn’t shown much of late, but the drop back down to six furlongs may not be a bad thing, while he certainly has the form to feature in a modest Class 5 contest of this nature.
Don’t ignore decent performances in better races than this
We’re talking about a horse with relatively poor recent form, but I think it’s probably wise to ignore his last two efforts. Last time out, he was carrying too much weight, while the time before that, he was repeatedly denied a clear passage.
Looking back to his fourth at Thirsk in September, he’s clearly a horse capable of competing in races like this, while he went very close in a Class 5 over C&D in May, finishing second (of 14), before following up with a solid effort over five and half furlongs at Bath. A repeat of either of those efforts
Still lightly raced, especially on the all-weather, where he has a record of two wins and a very close second from five runs, the gelding looks to have a better chance on paper than early odds of 10/1 suggest. After all, these are hardly the deepest Class 5 waters.
Nigel Tinkler has three runners in here, but he’s easily the least exposed. Golden Duke has failed to take what appear to be slightly better opportunities than this of late, while Athollblair Boy is an 11-year-old whose best days are clearly behind him and I don’t think he’s in here to have a serious crack at winning (famous last words, I know).
In first-time cheekpieces, with Alex Jary’s 5 lb claim leaving him well weighted, Profit Street may just be Tinkler’s first choice runner here, and at early odds of 10/1, given a selection of other positives, he’s a horse I want on side, that’s for sure.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 60 Naps) has a running P/L of +£60.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
Bangers and cash 3.35 Exeter e/w good luck
Only my thoughts but if we had a NAP around the 4/1 mark it might bring more winners. Just a suggestion, nothing else 🙂
Appreciate the suggestion. My approach is always to find horses that are generously priced (horses that end up shortening in the market) as in my opinion, this is the best way to arrive at long-term profit. This approach has allowed me to make a modest profit thus far. Sometimes value will be found with shorter-priced runners, such as yesterday, other days it’s a bigger priced selection. Personally, I wouldn’t be looking to focus only on a particular odds bracket, such as horses priced around the 4/1 mark.
Also, just for total clarity, the drop down to three Naps per week has nothing to do with a perceived lack of winners. The column produced a level-stakes profit in September, October and (as of now) November. Temporary cuts are being made across all types of content on the MFT site.
Mine n/r
On 3 at Sunderland dogs tonight
On Thursday’s dog page