Travel Candy didn’t exactly travel the best at Musselburgh yesterday, but she certainly found something for pressure, even if she did carry herself rather awkwardly at times, running on well to take a close-up fourth in what was a bunched finish. A decent effort, but crucially, no return.
| Newcastle - 15:55 |
Chesneys Charm |
5/2 |
On Thursday, I’m heading to Newcastle (not literally), where ahead of the 15:55, Chesneys Charm looks to have been found the right sort of opening by Grant Tuer, who is no stranger to tasting success at this venue.
Currently rated a 5/2 shot in the betting, with Pivotal Days in as the 13/8 favourite, I think the mount of Harrison Shaw could easily be the market leader here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s how things end up.
Drop in grade could prove crucial
A winner over seven furlongs at Newcastle, at this level, back in early October, the colt has since gone on to deliver a couple of respectable efforts in better races. The form of his fourth (of 10) in a Class 2 at York (over a mile) tells me that he ought to be a serious player in this lesser contest.
In that York race, from 1 lb higher in the weights, he ran behind three horses that are clearly better than this contest, while he also finished ahead of several that would rate right at the very top of a race such as this. Not to be ignored if you ask me.
He’s clearly not unsuited by the mile, given the staying-on nature of his effort at York, while in terms of quality (and quality in depth) this race is far from stronger than the seven-furlong contest that he won here (from just 1 lb less) recently.
Grant Tuer is a trainer that does relatively well at Newcastle and for my money, it appears as if he’s found his runner the right sort of opening here. The likely pace of this contest should mean that he gets a decent position just off the leader, leaving him poised to strike when things get serious.
Top of the pile for last-time-out speed figures too, I think we’re talking about a horse that should be favourite and likely will be by the time they leave the gates, so taking the currently available 5/2 (bet365) looks like a smart move.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 59 Naps) has a running P/L of +£70.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
In December 2020 we sadly 
Stintino sunset 12.50 South well ew.
Short one from you today Bradley but hopefully comes in for people good luck
Good luck with your shout.
My shortest priced bet yet for this website. As you’ll have seen, I don’t often conclude that 5/2 shots offer much value, but in this case, with a shorter-priced favourite at the time of writing, I made such odds to be a little bigger than they probably should be. Now a few hours on and that conclusion looks justified.