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Jeudidee folded rather tamely on Monday, so there was no follow-up winner to Sunday’s success. You win, you lose some. Moving on to Tuesday’s racing.
| Newcastle - 15:50 |
Azuinthejungle |
17/2 |
On Tuesday, the Nap runs at Newcastle, where ahead of the 15:50, a six-furlong handicap of the class 6 variety, I cannot help but conclude that the lightly-raced Azuinthejungle is worthy of support at chunky-looking odds of 17/2, which at the time of writing, are available with a couple of firms.
Far from fully exposed, Nigel Tinkler’s runner ran at Newcastle for the first time recently, running on well to take a close-up fifth, suggesting that today’s step up to six furlongs may just bring about a better showing.
His maiden form has worked out quite nicely
Back in September, on just his second start, the gelding finished a not-far-away fourth (of 9) in a maiden at Bath, over five and a half furlongs. He did his best work late in the day on that occasion, suggesting that the six-furlong trip here will suit.
What’s more, in that Bath race he finished behind a trio of horses that would rate as the three best horses in this race, with the winner since running in Class 4 and Class 2 handicaps.
After his Bath outing, the two-year-old ran at Beverley, where the drop back to five furlongs probably didn’t help. He finished fourth again. The form of that fourth looks decent, though, with two of the three horses to beat him since winning better races than this, with the winner going on to race in a Listed event. This sort of form is not to be ignored if you ask me.
In the race last time out, he had the more experienced Ghostman, who not only re-opposes here but has been installed at the head of the market, narrowly in front of him. The disparity in prices far from accurately reflects the little distance between the pair last time out, and with the extra distance rating as a plus, I wouldn't be surprised if the slightly less experienced horse reverses that form.
Nigel Tinkler knows how to ready one at Newcastle, make no mistake about that, while he has his most successful rider back on board tonight too. Oh, and this runner is right up there on both of my speed lists too.
At the end of the day, there are quite simply too many positives for odds of 17/2 not to go down as generous. Anything around that sort of price represents a decent value bet in my book.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 57 Naps) has a running P/L of +£90.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
