Friday’s Racing Tips – Ryan’s Rocket looks a solid bet in the very weak Persian War Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

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The last week has been rough so it was nice to see the 2pt selection Opening Bid win nicely after a perfect round of jumping. It would've been a kick in the teeth if he didn't manage to win given the market support from 5/1 into around 6/5F. There was a 20p Rule 4, but 10pts was returned instead of the 12pts if every horse lined up.

Lmay went the other way in the market, drifting quite violently into double-figure odds. She was far too keen and that's something you can't be doing on heavy ground where you have to reserve every inch of stamina. She got tired in the straight, as did the majority of the runners and the Menuisier horse who was backed off the boards just did enough to fend off Maria's Rock

Rizzel's Tips

Ryan's Rocket 15/8 – Chepstow 3.15

Even though this is a very early Grade 2 hurdle race, it is a very underwhelming turnout and it's not really a race to get overly excited about with only a couple I can see as standout chances in this.

I have this race between Ryan's Rocket and the mare Flying Fortune. Of the two I've opted for the Fergal O'Brien trained runner as I think he has the most solid piece of form in the field and that came on his hurdles debut when finishing a close second to Fiercely Proud who has run some respectable races against good opposition since.

Ryan's Rocket has won twice over hurdles since the runner-up finish behind the Ben Pauling horse, being a well-supported favourite on both occasions and winning races he should have. This is his toughest assignment since bumping into Fiercely Proud, but I don't think it's as strong as previous renewals of this race have been. The Irish runner doesn't appeal much to me, with some wins in easy races. The Skelton runner is one who could run well as the third-placed finish at Ascot was a good effort, and in turn, he holds Vincenzo on that form who was fourth.

Ryan's Rocket doesn't need to prove he handles the ground as he has already been a winner on soft over hurdles and in a PTP race, which also proves that the new trip of 2m 3f isn't going to be an issue as he has won over 3m between the flags.

This has also been a long-term plan according to Fergal O'Brien, who has had this race in mind after winning at Kempton 158 days ago.

Wayfinder 5/1 – Chepstow 3.50

Similar to the previous race, I have this between two horses and it pains me to side away from my last year's winning selection in this race, Good Boy Bobby, but I like the chances of Wayfinder a little more.

This year's renewal looks weaker than last year's, so on that evidence and off a 1lb higher mark Good Boy Bobby surely has a top chance in this contest for the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard, which is flying at the moment. However, Wayfinder caught my eye for Rebecca Curtis who has started off the season in good style with the small amount of horses she has sent out. She has had 4 winners from 18 runners, which is a 22% SR, with a further 2 being placed.

Wayfinder has only contested one veteran's race which saw him being pulled up earlier in the year at Exeter, but his season was on a downward spiral, but if you focus on his runs at the start of the season, it gives me optimism that this is the right time of year to catch him.

He was 3rd/13 on seasonal reappearance last year at Cheltenham around this time 12 months ago. That run came off the same mark as today's race but was against younger, more unexposed horses. He then fell early into the race the time after, but the time after that he was second to Nassalam in the Welsh National trial, with the winner of that going on to win the actual Welsh National after Christmas.

Wayfinder's record at Chepstow is very good. He has won at the track on four occasions from ten runs, so he is bordering on being a course specialist at this point. He handles any ground and his record when fresh is decent, with a couple of wins from a break as well as a couple of placed efforts.

Rebecca Curtis has had two recent runners, with one winning and the other running creditably into third place, so the yard continues to be in decent nick. The same comments can be said about Ben Jones who has won 3/7 of his rides in the last fortnight

Witness Stand 13/2 – Newmarket 3.00

At this stage of the season, the weight for age allowance is fairly irrelevant, especially over the shorter trips as the 3-year-olds are only getting 2lbs from the elders, so in theory it does benefit the older generation a lot more as they are more mature and physically ahead than the younger horses, but I'm not convinced that this is a great field of horses despite it being full of Class 1 winners.

I can see why people will get sucked into backing Royal Scotsman and Noble Dynasty, but I personally think it is a big trap going for either of those horses. Royal Scotsman has some very good pieces of form from his 2-year-old campaign and his 3-year-old season, but this year he has only raced twice. He was impressive at Epsom last time out when Jamie Spencer changed the tactics up and was positive on him, but the form of that race doesn't look strong and the drop in trip combined with this racing having plenty of front runners, it doesn't look like the same tactics will work again. As for the Godolphin horse, they have to be respected at their local track, but he is a 6-year-old who has raced in three Class 1 races, winning just one and he doesn't look to be as good as his official rating of 115 suggests he is.

I've opted for Witness Sand who has been a constant improver since putting on the cheekpieces and has form of 121 since having the headgear applied. This is a step up in class but he looks more than ready to compete. He likes to race prominently, which might be a burden due to amount of pace in the race, but Newmarket does tend to suit horses racing towards the front, so I think it is a positive.

His form has come on a mixture of ground, ranging from good to firm to winning his Listed race on soft ground last time out. He was a very easy winner at Newbury last time out and thumped English Oak by 3L who couldn't land a glove on him, with Tom Clover's horse winning doing handstands. His handicap form looks solid, giving away 13lbs to Piz Nair and giving that horse a beating of 3L looks solid as that horse came out and won, recording an RPR of 93 in the process last time out.

Blake 12/1 Each Way 4 places – Newmarket 4.10

Ideally, I would want the ground to be softer than what it currently is for Blake to be seen at his maximum potential, but good to soft with it drying out slightly isn't terrible and I think with the 7lb claimer doing the steering I am happy enough to take an each-way chance.

I think this horse is on a very good mark of 88, so with Ryan Kavanagh taking off a further 7lbs, this looks like a no-brainer for me, even in this competitive race. The form that this horse has shown in handicaps this season stacks up extremely well, as he has been ahead of some very well-handicapped horses who have improved their marks considerably since. For example:

• Beat Ebt's Guard. He was 78 rated at the time and is now rated 92, winning a Class 3 on his most recent start.
• Beat Kindest Nation. 73 rated when 4.75L behind Blake. Now rated 92 and has 2.25L behind the winner in a Class 1 Listed race lto.
• Prepschool was 5.5L behind Blake and has since won next time out producing an RPR of +10lbs to his rating.
• Ashariba has since won three on the bounce since the 6L defeat to Blake and is now rated 18lbs higher.

Last time out Blake ran in a Class 2 race on good to soft ground and finished a fast finishing 5th/10, 1.75L behind the winner. He ran to a +5lbs RPR and the handicapper hasn't altered his mark. He was strong at the finish that day and a stiffer track with an extra two furlongs to run, with him being on a lower mark with the 7lb claimer on board, other than the soft ground it smells like a recipe to success.

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