UFC 307 takes place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday, 5 October, or in the early hours of the morning on 6 October for viewers in the UK, the rest of Europe and Africa.
We had further success with UFC betting last weekend, with my advised accumulator tip landing at advised odds of 5.71/1.
My NAP selection tip unfortunately resulted in a losing bet, as Renato Moicano defeated Benoit Saint Denis via a doctor's stoppage.
I had advised betting on Saint Denis to win by KO in under 3.5 rounds, but the damage was done in the first round. Moicano took Saint Denis to the ground and delivered brutal ground-and-pound.
The Frenchman came back out to win the second round, but before the third round could begin, the fight was called off due to the severe damage to Saint Denis' face, particularly around his eyes – one of which was completely swollen shut, and he informed the doctor he could no longer see.
UFC 307 is approaching and we have some intriguing fights to look forward to, particularly the main event which sees current Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defend his title against Khali Rountree Jr.
I've put together a preview of the main event, which includes my NAP selection for the fight. I've also included my usual side accumulator bet, which runs alongside my NAP.
Alex Pereira vs Khali Rountree Jr UFC 307 Preview
Pereira returns to the octagon this weekend to defend his UFC Light Heavyweight championship Rountree Jr in what promises to be an action-packed main event with both fighters known for their strong striking ability and history of victories by TKO/KO.
Pereria is not shy when it comes to activity within the Octagon having already defended his title twice in the last five months with back to back KO/TKO victories against Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka.
Pereira's rise to the top has to be admired, and I've always respect for fighters who remain active once they become champion. Pereira most certainly falls into that category.
The calibre of fighters that each of these has faced is pretty much chalk and cheese, with Pereira's CV looking the stronger of the two and by some margin. With that said, Rountree has done little wrong and arrives on the back of a five-fight win streak, with his most recent being a nasty KO/TKO victory against Anthony Smith in December of last year.
How will the Alex Pereira vs Khali Rountree Jr fight plan out?
Pereira normally starts off his fights quite slowly, spending most of his time settling in and finding his reach whilst also anticipating how his opponent is going to go about their business. I think it's clear that if Rountree is to win UFC gold, then he has to knock the champion out, so I fully expect Pereira to remain composed and calm in round one before trying to find any openings in rounds two or three.
Pereira has only gone past the third round once in his career, which resulted in a KO victory against Isreal Adesanya back in 2022, so he is known for getting the job done within three rounds.
The bookmakers aren't giving much value away when it comes to backing Pereira outright, with the current odds of 1/5 being very much on the short side. The odds for Pereira to win via TKO/KO or DQ arn't much better at 4/11.
I fiddled about with the Bet365 bet builder market and tried combining the KO victory and under 3.5 rounds, but the best odds I could get for that combination was 1/2. It appears that if we are going to get any value in terms of betting in this fight then we will have to use the Round Betting market and thats the route I've ultimately chosen to go down.
Bookmakers fancy the Brazilian to get the job done inside one round, with Round 1 priced up at odds of 2/1. I think this fight goes past one round, and I'm still in two minds whether he finishes it inside round 2 or 3. Round 2 is priced up at slightly bigger odds of 16/5, with Round 3 looking like the value play at 11/2.
I've listened to Rountree in the build-up to this fight, and you can't half tell that this match-up means everything to him. As much as I don't think he wins, I've no doubt he will give his all, and chancing him to make it to Round 3 before being stopped is the road I've decided to go down.
- Advised Bet – Alex Pereria to win in Round 3 – 11/2 Bet365
Other betting selections for UFC 307
Kevin Holland to win vs Roman Dolidze – 4/6
Ryan Spann to win vs Ovince St Preux – 4/11
Austin Hubbard vs Alexander Hernandez – Over 1.5 Rounds 10/39
Jose Aldo to win vs Mario Bautista – 10/11
Raquel Pennington to win vs Julianna Pena – 10/17
- Bet365 Acca Odds – 8.52/1
- Resident horse racing tipster for MFT - 5 Years experience within sport writing and horse racing
