Tuesday’s Racing Tips – The hat-trick is on the cards for the inform Balqaa at Newcastle

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Good Banter was an easy winner for us on Monday at advised odds of 5/6. Good Banter was backed into a 4/11 favourite, and I did mention in my write-up prior that I felt the 5/6 was just about worth a bet.

I felt hard done by not landing the double, with The Dragon King only finishing in second place after being out battled to the line by the eventual winner.

Cairnzy's Tips

Balqaa 15/8 – Newcastle 8.00

My sole selection on Tuesday comes in the evening meeting at Newcastle, and the horse that caught my eye was Balqaa who arrives here in fine form in search of a hat trick.

I was surprised to see Balqaa priced up as big as 15/8, which may not be attractive odds in some people's eyes but I thought Stella Barclays' 6-year-old should have been a tad shorter in the market. I don't think this is a strong race at all, as all of her opposition is seriously out of form, and you need only check their recent form figures which will tell you all you need to know.

Balqaa returned to winning ways two starts back when winning comfortably by just over 1L at Southwell. My selection followed up two weeks later at Newcastle under a 6lb penalty and again won quite easily by just over 1L. Balqaa is up a further 5lb for this contest but given how out of sorts her rivals are, I don't think it will be enough to stop her from completing the hat trick.

Jason Hart and Jamie Spencer rode Balqaa to victory in her last two runs but it's the in-form Paul Mulrennan who takes over the reigns this time around. Mulrennan has solid claims aboard Balqaa to add another win to his tally after a good run of form this past week.

Rizzel's Tips

Capital Guarantee 5/2 – Beverley 4.30

It could be foolish going against Captain Corelli who is going for the four-timer, but Capital Guarantee appears to be hitting form and I will take a chance on him to beat the in-form Julie Camacho runner.

It's strange to see the level of form that Capital Guarantee has put in since landing three wins in a row from his first three runs for David O'Meara last year, or maybe it's not strange given how much of a farce the handicapping game is for horse racing. Since those wins his handicap mark has gone from being 86 to today's rating of 68, a mark he went close off last time out. For whatever reason Danny Tudhope hasn't been on this horse all that much. He was on board for his stable debut and the first win of the hat-trick runs, and then he made a return when riding him last time out when extremely well-backed into 11/4F after going off double-figure prices on every start this season. The fact that he was backed in after not having any market support all year and that Tudhope made a return last time out and that resulted in him miraculously returning to form isn't a coincidence.

Today's run is only eight days since his one-length defeat at Thirsk, so they must be very keen on getting their money back and it wouldn't surprise me if he was very strong in the betting once again as they definitely got their fingers burnt at Thirsk. The ground should be perfect for him as all three of his wins came on good ground and the extended 7f should be to his strengths given the way he has finished his races off in the races he has run well in.

This race does not look the strongest and I do think the bottom-weight horse is the one to be careful of, but that doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out.

Three Platoon 6/1 – Newcastle 4.45

You'll struggle to find a jockey who is riding better than Kaiya Fraser at the moment, which is crazy to say with him still being a 5lb claimer. I am a huge fan of his and he has landed a couple of winners for me in the last month or so, and I'm hoping he can get us another with Three Platoon.

Kaiya is riding the favourite of the opener at Newcastle, and I think he should be walking away with yet another winner, and win him riding with such confidence it can only be a good thing for him to come on this horse for the first time. This horse is well-treated on old pieces of form, but it's hard to get too excited about that as he hasn't shown a great level of form this year, but has run well on a couple of occasions on the turf which doesn't seem to be his ideal surface given his record on the grass is 0/12 with four finishes in third-place being his best finishes compared to his sole win on the AW and seven placed efforts from 14 runs.

He makes quite a quick return to the track after being 11th/15 at Thirsk last time out when simply not fancied in the market, but with Rebecca Menzies opting for Kaiya Fraser to take the ride after having the likes of Oisin Orr, David Egan, Callum Rodriguez and most recently Archie young (5lb claimer), it bodes for a different type of performance as the record of the jockey and trainer combining is quite ridiculous. When partnering up together they have a 46% strike rate from 13 runners which is six winners, returning a profit of +33.50 to £1 level stakes.

With this horse's profile, I'm more than happy to have the win bet on the nose despite him being 6/1 where you can happily have an EW bet, as I get the feeling he'll either win or finish nowhere.

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