With Man City Champions League odds at a market-best 11/4 on the eve of their league phase opener against vanquished 2023 final opponents Inter Milan, there seems to be clear consensus that the trophy will be returning to the Etihad Stadium sooner rather than later.
As reflected by our latest UCL outright prediction, only current holders Real Madrid are anywhere near Man City in the outright stakes. But according to one source, there's only one team lifting the trophy in 2025.
Why current Man City Champions League odds may be too conservative
City's 11/4 price equates to an implied probability of 26.7%. However, a study by bookmaker BetVictor using artificial intelligence implies much more than that.
The study identified 12 criteria that clubs should aim to meet to enhance their chances of winning Europe's premier club competition. This analysis covered all winning teams in the UCL since it began in 1992. The criteria included key performance data, such as goals scored and conceded, clean sheet percentage, squad depth and defensive mistakes that led to goals.
Each club's European performances over the past five seasons were then assessed against these factors. Pep Guardiola's team notably met 10 out of the 12 criteria, or 83%. In full, the criteria were as follows:
| Average Goals per Game |
2.0 |
✔️ Yes |
| Goals Conceded per Game |
<0.75 |
✔️ Yes |
| Win Percentage |
70% |
✔️ Yes |
| Home vs. Away Win Ratio |
80% home / 60% away |
✔️ Yes |
| Clean Sheet rate |
50% |
❌ No (40%) |
| Key Player Goal Contributions* |
35% |
✔️ Yes |
| Goal Conversion Rate |
15% |
✔️ Yes |
| Possession Percentage |
55% |
✔️ Yes |
| Pass Completion Rate |
85% |
✔️ Yes |
| Set-Piece Goals |
15% |
❌ No (10%) |
| Squad Depth (Minutes Played by Bench Players) |
35% of total match minutes |
✔️ Yes |
| Defensive Errors Leading to Goals |
<5% of goals conceded |
✔️ Yes |
*A club’s top two players (combined) should score/assist at least 35% of the team's total goals.
City could still be the ‘perfect' UCL team
As shown above, the areas where Manchester City did not quite measure up were clean sheet percentage and goals from set pieces, with just 40% and 14% respectively, below the recommended thresholds of 50% and 15%.
However, that doesn't seem to matter too much when considering Erling Haaland's prowess up front. He's already as good as killed the Premier League top scorer market, having hit nine goals across the first four Premier League rounds.
The Norwegian phenom has also claimed the UCL golden boot on two previous occasions, and it seems to be a straight fight with Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe for this season's award.
In the study, Bayern Munich followed closely with nine criteria met. Last season's champions, Real Madrid, ranked third in the predictions by meeting eight of the criteria. So too did Arsenal, while Liverpool and PSG met seven.
In December 2020 we sadly 
