Champions League outright winner odds and prediction: See which ‘perfect’ side is still a tempting 7/1

As ever, the UEFA Champions League outright winner odds market is one of the most exciting and dynamic ones around.

It’s a new era in the competition’s rich and illustrious history, as 36 teams vie for 16 knockout round places in a single league table. It’s been the biggest shake-up in the UCL for over two decades, and the impact on betting markets is clear.

That’s because the top-seeded sides no longer have the same degree of protection they used to. Under the previous format, top seeds (drawn from Pot 1) avoided each other until at least the knockout stage. Now, they will face two such opponents in the UCL's new ‘league phase’.

So now is the time to study the latest Champions League outright winner odds and place your bets. Below, we’ve highlighted several teams that stand out as particularly tempting prospects.

Best Champions League outright winner odds – top 10 favourites

Featured selection

Liverpool (7/1)

Our featured selection comes from Arne Slot's Reds this week, as they dismantled Xabi Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 to remain the only side in this season's Champions League with a perfect winning record. Deployed in an unconventional number 9 role, Luis Diaz was able to secure his first career hattrick as the Merseyside outfit cruised to a comfortable win.

Liverpool inflicted Leverkusen's first loss in the competition this season, and are now priced at 7/1 to walk away with the trophy. The club last won the competition in 2019, beating Tottenham Hotspur in the final, but now look good value to repeat that achievement. They are still only fourth favourite despite four wins from as many games, so now would be a perfect time to back Slot's side before their odds begin to shorten in the coming weeks.

Notable movers

Man City

It was another night to forget for Manchester City, as they were demolished 4-1 away at Sporting Lisbon. An excellent night for incoming Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim as he was able to get one over on his soon-to-be rivals, while also inflicting a third loss in a row for the Citizens for the first time ever under Pep Guardiola.

Man City are still favourites to overcome their competitors and walk away with a second Champions League, with bookies pricing them at 4/1. However, they will need to find their form again quickly if they are to realise bookmakers' predictions.

Arsenal

A similarly disappointing evening for Mikel Arteta's men saw them fall to a second consecutive 1-0 defeat, as a Hakan Calhanoglu penalty was enough to hand Inter Milan the victory. Arsenal subsequently slipped to 9/1 to win their first ever European trophy, as they have managed two wins from their first four games in this season's competition.

Arsenal appear to be struggling for goals currently. Mikel Arteta will want his side to regain their confidence away to Chelsea at the weekend before their low scoring becomes too much of an issue.

Real Madrid

Second favourites Real Madrid have endured a very disappointing start to their Champions League campaign, with Carlo Ancelotti's side only managing a 50% win rate so far with two from four games. This falls well below fans' usual expectations of Los Blancos, as they were defeated 3-1 by an AC Milan side who had struggled in the competition prior to facing Madrid.

Goals from Tijjani Reijnders, Alvaro Morata and Malick Thiaw were enough to see off the record champions, a result which saw their odds slip to 5/1. However, bookies still view them as firm contenders and they should not be overlooked at this early stage.

Barcelona

The Catalans have benefitted from an intriguing blend of youth and experience in the final third, with Robert Lewandowski and teenage star Lamine Yamal featuring prominently. But on matchday three, it was Raphinha who did the damage, with a hat-trick in their 4-1 win over Bayern Munich, which helped them move to 6/1 to lift the trophy.

They've shown immense character after the shocking blip against Monaco in their league phase opener, so that price is probably as good as it gets.

Bayern Munich

A 1-0 for the Bavarian side meant their odds shortened to 9/1 for the competition. A classic goal from young star Jamal Musiala was enough to get the three points for dominant Bayern side who were just too good for Benfica.

Bayern have picked up after a rocky start to now sit level with Madrid on points, which should ease any pressure which had been mounting for new manager Vincent Kompany.

Trends to watch

People who want to place bets on the Champions League, whether it be in outright or matchday markets, can see some trends from this list of winners, which may prove useful:

Three is the magic number

The previous UCL campaign saw an average of exactly three goals per match. Meanwhile, the two campaigns before that saw a total average within 0.5 of that figure. This suggests that total goal selections in the 2-3 range will be as popular as ever in 2024/25, though naturally, there will be an erring towards 3-4 for games in which any of the top 10 favourites listed earlier take on a team drawn from Pot 4.

Speaking of goals, seven out of the last nine UCL editions have seen the top scorer net 12+ times.

England and Spain reign

Ten of the last 11 UCL editions have seen a winner from the Premier League or La Liga. Bayern Munich’s win of 2020 – under less conventional circumstances than normal due to COVID – is the anomaly there. And Porto’s success of 2004 remains the only time this century that a team not playing in the traditional top five of European domestic leagues has lifted the trophy.

No love lost between compatriots

For the benefit of those interested in the ‘guess the finalists’ market, finals in which the two teams are from the same country are not a particularly common occurrence. That said, the last two times date back only to 2019 and 2021, with both finals being all-English ones.

Strike hard, strike fast

The respective triumphs for Liverpool and Chelsea in those years also contribute to an interesting trend: the last six UCL finals have been won to nil. That no doubt reflects the tendency for games to be more closed up and tense the further along the knockout stage the tournament progresses. Indeed, 2014 remains the last time that the team scoring first did not go on to lift the trophy.

Our prediction

This is Real’s competition to lose, and simply put, they're our pick. However, an each-way bet on Liverpool (or around 5/1 on them to reach the final) looks like it could be a smart move at around the same price.

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